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$50 SnG bubble play.


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#41 Actuary

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 06:36 AM

folding here is beyond horrible.as noted several times now, we are too short reltive to shorties to pass on this opportunity.

#42 Shizzmoney

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 06:58 AM

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Players that never call all in's are the easiest to play against at this point, imo. Now, I'm not getting crazy..but QQ is an all in calling hand for sure.
I think most of the times you are right, and most of the times I WOULD call.And as I noted, I would need more the information to come to a complete decision (although my initial reaction is fold). Don't get me wrong. QQ is a great hand. 4 handed, a terrific hand. But it is not the insta-call Holy Grail hand as T.J. Cloutier states (Ask Perry Friedman), and I know from experience.
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#43 shpaget

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 07:19 AM

View PostShizzmoney, on Monday, June 5th, 2006, 6:58 AM, said:

Don't get me wrong. QQ is a great hand. 4 handed, a terrific hand. But it is not the insta-call Holy Grail hand as T.J. Cloutier states (Ask Perry Friedman), and I know from experience.
Sure it is...unlesss you can incredibly shrink the SB's range of hands here, QQ is an insta-call in this situation.Cloutier is mostly talking from a full-table perspective, where QQ can be grossly overplayed by a lot of players, even pros.SB's range of hands is too great, and your stack-size in relation to the "short" stacks' sizes is too small.SB needs to be tighter, and shortstack needs to be shorter, for QQ to be a good fold here.Even though you're second in chips, you really aren't much greater than 25% to get into the money, which is simply your statistical share...in reality, the chip leader isn't much greater than 25% to get in...his M is <7.So, if you call, 1/3 of the time (at worst against his ranges) you come in fourth...if you fold, 1/4 of the time you come in fourth....in reality, you are probably 3:1 against his range, meaning if you call, you lose and come in fourth 1/4 of the time, and if you fold you come in fourth 1/4 of the time...so why wouldn't you call?If you call, at least 2/3 of the time you double up, and make money almost 100% of the time, and probably win 1/2, and possibly at least 3/4, of the time.If you fold, you make money 3/4 of the time, and probably win 1/4 of the time.I think the equity is in calling.
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#44 Shizzmoney

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 07:28 AM

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for QQ to be a good fold here.
I never said it was a "good" fold. I'm just saying that folding here isn't totally wrong.

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So, if you call, 1/3 of the time (at worst against his ranges) you come in fourth...if you fold, 1/4 of the time you come in fourth.If you call 2/3 of the time you double up, and make money almost 100% of the time, and probably win 1/2, and more likely 3/4, of the time.If you fold, you make money 3/4 of the time, and probably win 1/4 of the time.
That's very well put and it puts things in better perspective for me. MY point is, I always want to do my best to play the player. It's not always ONLY what is in my hand that dictates my decision.
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#45 shpaget

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 07:48 AM

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MY point is, I always want to do my best to play the player. It's not always ONLY what is in my hand that dictates my decision.
I agree, which is the purpose in putting him on a range of hands.Having said that, I'm not sure what pp is my cutoff here...JJ, TT, 99...not sure.Can't run pokerstove at work, but I'd basically like to be at least 2:1 favourite against his range.Fold:1/4 $01/4 $1001/4 $1501/4 $250Call at 2:14/12 $01/12 $1002/12 $1505/12 $250Call at 3:13/12 $01/12 $1002/12 $1506/12 $250Arbitrary of course, but if you fold, over 12 tourneys you earn $1500If you call at 2:1 against his range, you earn $1650.If you call at 3:1 against his range, you earn $1900.
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#46 iggymcfly

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 04:20 PM

Shpaget, your range for the big stack's push here is so far off that it's not even funny. A good player will be pushing any pocket pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, and hands like Q9s and T9s as well. I might go as far as to push any face card as well as any suited connector 56 or higher. The fact that you're the big stack pushing into only the second stack should expand your range significantly since you know there are so few hands that he can call you with. I'd be much more likely to fear a push from one of the smaller stacks since they'd be pushing across more than one position (remember the push came from the SB), and they'd be worried about being eliminated if called.
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#47 Peak01

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 04:35 PM

CALLCALLCALLNo question about it. You always play to win. Even at the sng structure. 1st pays 50% and 3rd pays 20%. That 30% is worth the call and gamble on the bubble.
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#48 shpaget

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 06:39 AM

View Postiggymcfly, on Monday, June 5th, 2006, 4:20 PM, said:

Shpaget, your range for the big stack's push here is so far off that it's not even funny. A good player will be pushing any pocket pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, and hands like Q9s and T9s as well. I might go as far as to push any face card as well as any suited connector 56 or higher. The fact that you're the big stack pushing into only the second stack should expand your range significantly since you know there are so few hands that he can call you with. I'd be much more likely to fear a push from one of the smaller stacks since they'd be pushing across more than one position (remember the push came from the SB), and they'd be worried about being eliminated if called.
wtf are you smoking???Go back and read my posts again...I've essentially stated exactly what you did, with the minor elimation of Q9s (and I actually agree with you there).And, implied (look it up if you're not sure of the meaning) in my guesstimate of SB's range is he is pushing with AT LEAST those hands.Jesus - I've been the biggest proponent of calling, and the loudest voice saying how large SB's range really is (especially in comparison to others assessments) and you're bitching because I forgot to mention Q9 suited?I've said you are at least 2:1 against SB's range, and quite likely 3:1 against his range...how much larger do you want me to make his range...I've come within a b.c.h. of saying that SB has a random hand!
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#49 psujohn

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 07:41 AM

View Postshpaget, on Monday, June 5th, 2006, 11:19 AM, said:

Even though you're second in chips, you really aren't much greater than 25% to get into the money, which is simply your statistical share...in reality, the chip leader isn't much greater than 25% to get in...his M is <7.If you call, at least 2/3 of the time you double up, and make money almost 100% of the time, and probably win 1/2, and possibly at least 3/4, of the time.
Isn't there an inconsistancy here? The CL is only 25% to make the money with an M of 7 but if we double to an M of 9 we're 100% to make the money and 75% to take first?People who advocate taking risks to take a chiplead in SNGs don't understand the simple fact that a chip lead doesn't mean much in SNGs unless it's a really massive 75% of the chips kind of chip lead.

#50 shpaget

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 08:21 AM

View Postpsujohn, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 7:41 AM, said:

Isn't there an inconsistancy here? The CL is only 25% to make the money with an M of 7 but if we double to an M of 9 we're 100% to make the money and 75% to take first?People who advocate taking risks to take a chiplead in SNGs don't understand the simple fact that a chip lead doesn't mean much in SNGs unless it's a really massive 75% of the chips kind of chip lead.
No inconsistency:Scenario A...chipleader M7, you M4.5, "short" stacks, M3, M3..chipleader is barely double shortstack, only 50% more than 2nd.Scenaro B...you call and win...you M9, former chipleader M2, others M3, M3 and one has just posted BB. You have more than half the total chips now, and more than 3 times your closest opponent....you can lose two all-ins and still have chips.See the difference?Here's the bottom line - against SB's range of hands you are likely 3:1.That means if you call you come in fourth 1 out of 4 times.And if you fold you come in fourth 1 out of 4 times, because the blinds and chipstacks make everyone virtually equal....really, you have less than 27% of total chips...so, you're 1/4 to finish out of the money.So, if calling and folding have the same downside, calling is the clear play because it has the greater upside.
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#51 timwakefield

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 08:25 AM

I only read the beginning of page one, but to me it is an easy call. Since when does anybody play to cash???????
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#52 Actuary

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 08:36 AM

View Posttimwakefield, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 8:25 AM, said:

I only read the beginning of page one, but to me it is an easy call. Since when does anybody play to cash???????
in SnG's?u kidding right?but this case is clear call...anyway, as we are not anywher close to guaranteed cashing just by folding here.shpget summed it up well, imo

#53 timwakefield

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 08:44 AM

View PostActuary, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 8:36 AM, said:

in SnG's?u kidding right?
No......I mean obviously cashing is the first priority in an sng, but when you get a chance to double up and take the chiplead, I don't see why you would not take it, even at the risk of bubbling. Payouts are 50%, 30%, and 20% no?
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#54 Actuary

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 08:48 AM

View Posttimwakefield, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 8:44 AM, said:

No......I mean obviously cashing is the first priority in an sng, but when you get a chance to double up and take the chiplead, I don't see why you would not take it, even at the risk of bubbling. Payouts are 50%, 30%, and 20% no?
yeah.But I'd fold 88 here. (w/o more read on SB and how often he is doing this and considering I feel decent to beat at least ooe of the other shorties into the $$$)even though I could dbl up.

#55 timwakefield

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 08:49 AM

View PostActuary, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 8:48 AM, said:

yeah.But I'd fold 88 here.even though I could dbl up.
Yes but not QQ!Actuary I want your input on my AQ question (in the "Final Table" thread).
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#56 Actuary

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 08:55 AM

View Posttimwakefield, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 8:49 AM, said:

Yes but not QQ!Actuary I want your input on my AQ question (in the "Final Table" thread).
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#57 shpaget

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 08:58 AM

View Posttimwakefield, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 8:44 AM, said:

No......I mean obviously cashing is the first priority in an sng, but when you get a chance to double up and take the chiplead, I don't see why you would not take it, even at the risk of bubbling. Payouts are 50%, 30%, and 20% no?
If you take the original scenario and change chipstacks to:chipleader 7500 SByou 5500 BB3rd 1500shortstack 500this becomes a fold. (along with a number of other chipstack scenarios where one player is significantly shorter than the other 3)SB's range is the same...your odds againts the range are the same...but your chances of cashing are much greater than 25% if you fold. ie. the downside of calling far outweighs the downside of folding, and the upside of calling likely don't cover the difference.
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#58 psujohn

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 09:34 AM

View Postshpaget, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 12:21 PM, said:

No inconsistency:Scenario A...chipleader M7, you M4.5, "short" stacks, M3, M3..chipleader is barely double shortstack, only 50% more than 2nd.Scenaro B...you call and win...you M9, former chipleader M2, others M3, M3 and one has just posted BB. You have more than half the total chips now, and more than 3 times your closest opponent....you can lose two all-ins and still have chips.See the difference?Here's the bottom line - against SB's range of hands you are likely 3:1.That means if you call you come in fourth 1 out of 4 times.And if you fold you come in fourth 1 out of 4 times, because the blinds and chipstacks make everyone virtually equal....really, you have less than 27% of total chips...so, you're 1/4 to finish out of the money.So, if calling and folding have the same downside, calling is the clear play because it has the greater upside.
I'm not disputing that calling and winning puts you in a better spot than the current CL. I'm just disputing how much better of a spot it is. If you call and win and then one of the villains takes out another you're sitting with an M of 9 vs and M of 6. Hardly a dominating lead. Even with an M of 9 vs a couple of 3's you're looking at push/fold poker. Even being better than your opponents at push/fold you're still in a situation where luck has a lot to do with the outcome.I'm not disputing your "bottom line" conclusion either. I suspect that the vast majority of the time we have villain drawing to 2 or 3 outs and so our odds of going out on this hand aren't any worse than our odds of going out on some other hand before the money.It's just that a lot of time we see MTT strategy applied to SNGs. In an MTT it's often correct to take a coinflip in an attempt to double before the bubble bursts. In an MTT there's lots of poker to play once you're ITM and (especially in the large field MTTs) playing for anything less than the FT is stupid. In SNGs going into the final 3 with 12K vs 4k, 4K isn't as big of a chip lead as it would seem. Specially with 400/800 blinds.

#59 timwakefield

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 09:55 AM

View Postshpaget, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 8:58 AM, said:

If you take the original scenario and change chipstacks to:chipleader 7500 SByou 5500 BB3rd 1500shortstack 500this becomes a fold. (along with a number of other chipstack scenarios where one player is significantly shorter than the other 3)SB's range is the same...your odds againts the range are the same...but your chances of cashing are much greater than 25% if you fold. ie. the downside of calling far outweighs the downside of folding, and the upside of calling likely don't cover the difference.
Good point, but with the chipstacks as they were isn't it an easy call?
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#60 shpaget

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Posted 06 June 2006 - 10:10 AM

View Postpsujohn, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 9:34 AM, said:

I'm not disputing that calling and winning puts you in a better spot than the current CL. I'm just disputing how much better of a spot it is. If you call and win and then one of the villains takes out another you're sitting with an M of 9 vs and M of 6. Hardly a dominating lead. Even with an M of 9 vs a couple of 3's you're looking at push/fold poker. Even being better than your opponents at push/fold you're still in a situation where luck has a lot to do with the outcome.
Yes, but now you're in the money, an outcome not ensured by folding, and you are now in top two, by your scenario, an outcome not reached 50% of the time if you fold...which, most importantly, is just one scenario...you are just as likely to knock out the third place guy, giving you ~12k to 3k lead, and more importantly, you can't be knocked out by either on the first try. Push/fold poker gives advantage to the guy who can lose 2 all-ins and still have chips over the guy who must win two consecutive all-ins to stay alive.

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In SNGs going into the final 3 with 12K vs 4k, 4K isn't as big of a chip lead as it would seem. Specially with 400/800 blinds.
No, it's not...BUT...if, as you say, it's mostly luck at this point (or more luck than other points), wouldn't that, logically, mean that, if you have 12k and two players each have 4k, you would win 6 in 10 times? If luck were the driving element, and skill was equal.

View Posttimwakefield, on Tuesday, June 6th, 2006, 9:55 AM, said:

Good point, but with the chipstacks as they were isn't it an easy call?
Yes - I think my cutoff here is somewhere in the 77-99 range.
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