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$50 SnG bubble play.


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#21 copernicus

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 10:52 PM

is too big not to call. If you get unlucky, so be it,but in the long run you will build a big stack that takes a high prize more than enough to offset the times you miss squeeking into the money

#22 Smasharoo

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 11:28 PM

is too big not to call. If you get unlucky, so be it,but in the long run you will build a big stack that takes a high prize more than enough to offset the times you miss squeeking into the moneyHow often would you say you have to win the hand for it to be worth calling?

#23 Actuary

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Posted 02 June 2006 - 02:40 PM

Smash,you should've called here.the short stacks are not that short.you have to make calls on the bubble sometimes, not just rely on pushing the shorties around. With the M's at table, you'll get yourself pot committed stealing from the shorties with a lot worse hands than QQ.I'd fold KK if the shorties were super short.btw: do you still think a fold is best after all this time?

#24 iggymcfly

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Posted 02 June 2006 - 03:16 PM

I think that at this stage, your chip count is still relatively vulnerable, and you could easily get knocked down to third or fourth before one of the short stacks goes out. Therefore, you have to take the equity edge with QQ and just hope it works out for you. Also, if you double up here, you gain a lot more chips than it looks like since you'll be allowed to steal liberally for the rest of the bubble period, and you'll no longer have to worry about laying down big hands.If the stacks were something like 13K, 4K, 2K, 1K, then I could see this being a fold, but with the stacks this even, I think it's almost an automatic call.
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#25 Zach6668

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Posted 02 June 2006 - 04:50 PM

How did you manage to dig this one up?1 and half years old...Good read though.- Zach
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
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QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#26 screech

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Posted 02 June 2006 - 05:36 PM

This can be worked out mathematically. That doesn't mean I can do it though.You can work out your EV if you fold by simply using the ratios of stacks sizes (maybe weighted a bit if you think you have an edge), to determine how much you win on average if you fold. Then, you can work out your equity vs an sb push (this depends on your read a bit obviously). My guess off the top of my head would be that you have around 70% equity. So then you wokr out what your equity is when you double up (you will almost always take first), and if that number is greater than the number if you just fold, then you should call.I was probalby stating the obvious above, but I formula may be given to calculate equity vs payout structure in Tournament Poker For Advanced Players. I'll have a look at it tomorrow. Right now, my gut says to call, but it's impossible to know for sure without the payout structure.

#27 Smasharoo

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Posted 02 June 2006 - 06:22 PM

btw: do you still think a fold is best after all this time?Nope, but I'm a better tournament player now.It is still closish.good luck.
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#28 Zach6668

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Posted 02 June 2006 - 07:48 PM

View PostSmasharoo, on Friday, June 2nd, 2006, 10:22 PM, said:

btw: do you still think a fold is best after all this time?Nope, but I'm a better tournament player now.It is still closish.good luck.
I agree with this. It's close. Could go either way. Depends a lot on your abilities once you become 3 handed. If you are going to fold, then you are going to have to pick up a few small pots to make up for the chips you missed out on this hand. I think.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#29 Actuary

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Posted 02 June 2006 - 11:04 PM

View PostZach6668, on Friday, June 2nd, 2006, 4:50 PM, said:

How did you manage to dig this one up?- Zach
I get bored at work.

#30 dingas

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Posted 03 June 2006 - 04:13 AM

Actually this is a fairly easy fold.You have 30% of the chips in play, so your tournament EV is roughly 30% of the prize pool. For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume that the prize pool is $100. Therefore, the EV of folding is $30.Let's say you're a 3:1 favourite against villains range. When you call and lose, you lose that $30. Even if we assume that when you call and win you will always win the tournamnet and 1st prize of $50, that only makes calling EV neutral with respect to folding.Here's the math: 1/4 * --30 + 3/4 * 50 = 30. And this assumption is, of course, way too generous. Conclusion: Folding is better than calling. Even with pocket kings or aces, this might well be a fold.I've always hated SNG's and I think now I know why. An idiotic form of poker.
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#31 jjgoldy5

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Posted 03 June 2006 - 06:56 AM

So if you fold you have 3400 chips left, then 3100 hundred left after your SB, and are in danger of being pushed around further by the big stack. Or you call and double up twice out of three and lose once. The twice you double up you leave yourself with a great chance of taking down the tourney.I think that even if you have a table full of donks, a call is still long term +ROI.Good luck :club:

#32 Actuary

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Posted 04 June 2006 - 10:48 AM

if we folds:CL: 6300 Us: 3700Other1: 2500Other2: 2500with blinds at 300/600 I'm thoriwng the TEQ equations out.We are way to suscepitable to finishing in 4th here.You just have to call sometimes, even in bubble situations.The low stacks are not low enough to fold here, that's the key.

#33 iggymcfly

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Posted 04 June 2006 - 04:06 PM

View Postdingas, on Saturday, June 3rd, 2006, 4:13 AM, said:

Actually this is a fairly easy fold.You have 30% of the chips in play, so your tournament EV is roughly 30% of the prize pool. For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume that the prize pool is $100. Therefore, the EV of folding is $30.
This is where your assumption goes wrong. The idea that %(chips) = %(prize equity) is way off here. The fact that the payout structure is relativelty flat already lowers our actual prize equity a little bit, and the fact that we're getting bullied off of hands like QQ lowers it even further. If we fold and continue to play for third like this, we will inevitably end up with a smaller stack after the next two eliminations and our equity will go something like this:1st: Chip leader 50%, Hero: 15%, Low stacks: 17.5% each2nd: Chip leader 30%, Hero: 20%, Low stacks: 25% each3rd: Chip leader 15%, Hero: 45%, Low stacks: 20% eachSo in a $10 SnG, that would make our actual equity something more like $7.5 + $6 + $9 = $22.50I don't feel like calculating our equity if we double up, but I'd guess that 70% of it is higher than that.
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#34 doublemeup

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Posted 04 June 2006 - 06:00 PM

If you're afraid to go out on the bubble then don't play. That Simple.You have to call here. 4 handed, blinds are high, you have the 3rd best hand in poker. Easy.I call here

#35 SavageHenry

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Posted 04 June 2006 - 11:50 PM

whats the range on hands we call with here ? id call with AA-QQ everytime. Are we calling with less than that ?

#36 Shizzmoney

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 05:51 AM

Quote

You also make less money long term with a call.
Agreed, not to mention the fact this is an internet SNG where you can't get a physical read on your opponent. Plus, the raiser knows it's the bubble too. So he could be jamming a really great hand all-in hoping Smash catches something big. But I don't know how the raiser plays. He might be a Move In Specialist.If I have the BB covered in this scenario on the bubble, I'll often do this play on occasion with KK, AA, and AKs from the SB myself in hopes that someone wakes up with a hand like AJ in the BB and insta-call due to the fact they just look at their hand as being good or in a race as supposed to not wondering what's in MY hand.

Quote

You have 30% of the chips in play
He is crushed by either AA and KK.A-Q and lower/K-x suited could get lucky against him. Yes, you can call and be in good shape, but you'll get sucked out on 28% of the time. But you are not sure of this, although if I knew my opponent had AJ, I'd probably call.Really the best hand he would be up against would be JJ and lower, which is a possibility, but the price to find out could be too great here.If I had to guess, the SB has AK IMO.Hence why Smash should fold. If he had less chips, then I think he needs to draw his line in the sand and gamble. But he's a good player with good post flop play that doesn't need to get into races because he has chips to steal blinds with later. The other two stacks don't want to go broke. And he has them covered (not by much, but still covered). Pick on them for that.In that scenario, wait for the bubble to burst, and THEN you gamble.
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#37 shpaget

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 06:03 AM

Call.It's not like you have a trememdous advantage over the two "short stacks".You have an M of 4.5...their M is just under 3.Yes, conventional wisdom says to get into the money and then start gambling....calling with QQ 4-handed is not "gambling", and the fact is you get into the money by putting your chips in play with the best hand.Conservatively speaking, 2/3 times you make this play you end up with 2/3 of the chips, get into the money almost 100% of the time, and win this thing more than half the time...conservatively speaking.If you fold, you're still fighting just to get into the money and, again, aren't very far from being the short stack yourself....I think it's fair to say that if you fold your chances of getting into the money aren't better than then 25% you're getting by just being one of four players.To ask another question - if either UTG or Button push, are you calling, simply because they can't bust you? They're pushing with the same range of hands SB is...and though they don't bust you they certainly cripple you.If the shortstacks, or one of them, were truly short (compared to you...eg. <1000), then I fold.
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#38 Shizzmoney

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 06:12 AM

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To ask another question - if either UTG or Button push, are you calling, simply because they can't bust you?
I'd call just due to the fact that their range of hands is much more wider for an M of 3 - they are getting in desperation mode, and would probably push with a pair of 9's or A10s just to eat the blinds right there. I am folding just because, IMO, the SB's jamming all-in seems very shady to me.
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#39 shpaget

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 06:18 AM

View PostShizzmoney, on Monday, June 5th, 2006, 6:12 AM, said:

I'd call just due to the fact that their range of hands is much more wider for an M of 3 - they are getting in desperation mode, and would probably push with a pair of 9's or A10s just to eat the blinds right there. I am folding just because, IMO, the SB's jamming all-in seems very shady to me.
FYI - All three players are open-pushing with any ace, probably any king, any two broadway, any pair, and and handful of suited connectors.
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#40 Shizzmoney

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Posted 05 June 2006 - 06:27 AM

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All three players are open-pushing with any ace, probably any king, any two broadway, any pair, and and handful of suited connectors.
For the two players with T2500 in chips, absolutely correct. But the one fly in the ointment here is the fact that this play was made by the chip leader right into the 2nd chip stack.The thing is, I have no idea how the tournament has gone. Did the chip leader get his stack by playing good, solid poker? Has he pushed with a pre-flop monster before (or AKs)? Has he been super aggressive in blind versus blind play (decreasing his range)? Has he been pushing on Smash alot before this? Did he get his chip lead by winning a race? Or did he donk his way into the chip lead and is the type of player who would look down at a pair of 5's in the SB and think it was good?It's not an easy fold. But if I had more information, the decision itself would be easier.
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