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$50 SnG bubble play.


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#1 Smasharoo

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 10:59 PM

I rarely play these, but was motivated by all the posts here about how soft they are to give it a shot.Stack sizes are approximate but to scale. Blinds are 300/600.I'm on the BB in 2nd with T4000SB has 6000Button and UTG have ~2500 each.Folded to SB who pushes. I have QQ.What's my play?

#2 wrto4556

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 11:05 PM

FoldHe may be pushing with Ace Rag and get lucky...It doesn't matter that you have the best hand. You want to push around the small stacks durring the bubble, the SB isn't very short-stacked. Just fold, pick on the short-stacks, and wait until you are in the money to start "gambling".
back for kramit

#3 Smasharoo

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 11:12 PM

I think you're right, and I did, but I was marginally annoyed about it the rest of the night.I squeaked into 3rd with like one blinds worth of chips. Feel like I win it easy with a double up there.

#4 jayboogie

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 11:27 PM

I think he had either a AX or a low pocket pair. It's got to piss you off folding QQ in that situation 4 handed, but it's probably the smart move. Also, what would factor in is what the payout differences were for 1st,2nd,3rd. If it was really top heavy, I'd probably call. If it's fairly relative, I'd fold it. Really though, it's a tough laydown in this situation, but one that probably needs to be done if you'd like to finish in the money.

#5 Smasharoo

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 11:31 PM

I think he had either a AX or a low pocket pairI think he had any random two cards.I make that play 7/10 times if it's folded to me in the SB and I'm the big stack with anything.

#6 Suited_Up

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Posted 08 January 2005 - 11:06 AM

I agree with you that he had 2 randoms. Maybe K8 or something, maybe even less. I would make the call, If you lose it you lose it. But I find people will move in a lot of hands when you get shorthanded. I think you had the lead if not completely had him beat, J10 or something. I think if he had a good hand he would have just put in a minimum raise. (Maybe the $50 SnG's are different)
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#7 jayboogie

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Posted 08 January 2005 - 11:23 AM

Smasharoo said:

I think he had either a AX or a low pocket pairI think he had any random two cards.I make that play 7/10 times if it's folded to me in the SB and I'm the big stack with anything.
Well, your right, he may have a random hand, but if he had any playable hand at all, I'd say he has 1 of these 2, because if he has something like 33, he'd wanna pick up the pot right there. If he had AX, he'd be able to at least hit an Ace most likely and win if he is called. Of course, he could have random cards as well, but I'd be pushing with a low pocket pair or AX as well.

#8 hawsdog

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 04:01 PM

if you don't call in that situation, why are you playing? You almost definitely had a 2-1 advantage (at least), as He's probably not going to try to steal the blinds with AA, KK, or AK. Thus with your minimum 2-1 advantage and getting paid off 8900 for a $4,000 bet, I think it was a bad fold. People don't win money playing poker by folding in that situation. There are times to throw away QQ, but with 4 players left at a $50 sit and go, and a chip leader over betting the pot, it was not one of those times. Plus, you don't have to sit here and second guess yourself about not being willing to play a top hand. That's just my take.

#9 Smasharoo

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 04:18 PM

if you don't call in that situation, why are you playing?To win money.Not to make calls for all my chips on the bubble with QQ.

#10 Spidurman

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 04:29 PM

You are about 7:3 to win the pot against a probably holding of his. I personally call - it doesn't get that much better than that, and while you are in second, you don' t have a cash clinched by any means. If you win the pot, you have somewhere around 70-75% of the chips on the table 4 handed. Those are pretty good odds of getting at least second place, and probably first.If you play to win, you call. If you play for third, you fold. I prefer the former :D

#11 Smasharoo

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 04:31 PM

If you play to win, you call. If you play for third, you fold. I prefer the former SmileIf you play to win MONEY you fold. It's not really very close.If you play to win the SnG, you call. You also make less money long term with a call.IMO.

#12 jayboogie

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 04:35 PM

I think you fold it, even though it's really tough. Unless, you have him exactly pinned on pushing to steal the blinds with any 2 cards, which isn't likely. At the same time though, your likely not going to pick up a better hand than QQ and it's a chance to double up and put yourself in position to win it. If this was a multi-table tournament that was top heavy, there's no question I'd call, but a sit and go would probably be a little different, because it's usually a 50/30/20 scale which is not huge difference.

#13 hawsdog

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 04:39 PM

How much did you end up winning? your money back? $25 more? It's all about expected values, and having your money in when you favored. It's one thing to be on the bubble at the WSOP, it's quite another at a $50 sit and go. To make money in the long run (averaging everything out) you should make that call. To give yourself the best chance of cashing a pittance, its probably 50/50.I guarantee Daniel would have called in that situation.

#14 Spidurman

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 04:40 PM

If you can hit the big money payouts (top two) with moderate effort 70% of the time, it is going to be positive EV - long term.I reread the post and you said you do not usually play that high. Therefore, folding is reasonable.I do believe calling is positive EV long run though.BTW - QQ against a total random hand is 79.925%, my first run was against 'good' cards - pairs and paint.

#15 Smasharoo

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 04:44 PM

How much did you end up winning? your money back? $25 more? It's all about expected values, and having your money in when you favored. It's one thing to be on the bubble at the WSOP, it's quite another at a $50 sit and go. To make money in the long run (averaging everything out) you should make that call. To give yourself the best chance of cashing a pittance, its probably 50/50.I disagree. The nature of the pay out structure in SnG's dictates that you play to secure 3rd, then play for 1st and not worry about second.The goal is long term RoI, not this particular SnG. If I win the hand 70% of the time, I'm still not sure it's a good call. The chances of me finishing out of the money by folding are fairly marginal considering the blinds and chip stacks. Clearly possible, but very unlikely.I guarantee Daniel would have called in that situation.I doubt it.Maybe he'll talk about something simmilar and we'll find out someday, but I highly doubt it.

#16 Smasharoo

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 04:49 PM

I reread the post and you said you do not usually play that high. Therefore, folding is reasonable.Read it again.I don't ussually play SnG because I find them terribly boring.$25 is meaningless to me.

#17 Spidurman

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 04:56 PM

Smasharoo said:

I reread the post and you said you do not usually play that high. Therefore, folding is reasonable.Read it again.I don't ussually play SnG because I find them terribly boring.$25 is meaningless to me.
then why does third matter - why not make the play with the highest probability of winning (lets say its about $150-175 for winning in profit).I play tournament structure about 75% of my play (MTT/SNG), I'd call unless you are that convinced you can outplay the field - and assume that the big stack busts a short, so he is at about 9000 chips to your 3100 (after you fold the SB hand) and 2500 for the other player. Again, actual totals will be slightly different. I make the call, but that's just my game. I like my queens there, if he has aces/kings, he has em. If he doesn't, you are ahead, usually by a huge margin.

#18 Smasharoo

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 05:01 PM

then why does third matter - why not make the play with the highest probability of winning (lets say its about $150-175 for winning in profit).Because 4th pays nothing.The idea is to make the play with the best RoI long term.If it was a short stack I would have called instantly. It's not. It's the one player who can put me out with no money.

#19 Spidurman

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 05:03 PM

Smasharoo said:

then why does third matter - why not make the play with the highest probability of winning (lets say its about $150-175 for winning in profit).Because 4th pays nothing.The idea is to make the play with the best RoI long term.If it was a short stack I would have called instantly.  It's not.  It's the one player who can put me out with no money.
I think we can agree to disagree here, just remember that merely cashing is not always the optimal play. Both plays have their merits.

#20 Smasharoo

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Posted 10 January 2005 - 05:09 PM

I think we can agree to disagree here, just remember that merely cashing is not always the optimal play. Both plays have their merits.Sure.




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