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implied odds or horrible fish play?


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#1 jsull

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 04:24 AM

Critique please. Please keep in mind, I've only been playing for a month and a half. I'm understanding a bit more of limit holdem after reading GSIH, but still NL I seem to do better with. But when it comes to situations like this, it's where I might as well grow gills.It's PP last night. Got myself a table full of all species of fish (self included). They were mostly playing predictable &/or passive besides 2 calling stations. I don't know when they all agreed on it, but it seemed that the standard raises went like so. Aces, you bet $2, Kings you bet $1. All other good hands, minraise, else limp. I stuck with this table for a while, because I knew I'd get paid off big. I had already doubled up with a Nut Straight vs an Ace set. I've been trying the "short stack"/tight play method, and I like the way it's worked out for the most part. But when I start getting the same stacks as most of the table, then I get looser.Anyway, here's how the hand played out.Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) convertersaw flop|saw showdownHero ($24.45)MP1 ($19.35) (calling station who let me double up earlier)MP2 ($16)MP3 ($30.47)CO ($26.3)Button ($22.31)SB ($16.75)BB ($28.65)UTG ($29.81)UTG+1 ($5.65)Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with [Ks], [8s]. SB posts a blind of $0.1. 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, MP1 calls $1.75, MP3 folds.Now. I know I probably should have folded this preflop. I know this. But here is my thinking here (lol, let's go deep inside the mind of a fish)... My plan was, if the board paired up, to represent a set. As passive as everybody has been, they should fold.[b]Flop: ($6.60) [3s], [9s], [Th] (3 players)Well this flop throws off my "represent a set" idea. So now I have a pretty good flush draw. I had already noted that the button stays in a hand too long, so if I hit this flush, his entire stack is mine. (implied odds?)Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button bets $9, Hero calls $9, MP1 folds.So, he's going to make me pay or chase me off. [b]Turn: ($24.60) [Js] (2 players) Converter is always messed up at this point for me. I went all in for my remaining $13.45, he called with his $11.31 The only way I'm beat at this point is if he holds the A :club: , and one more spikes on the river.[b]River: [Td] (2 players)--------------------------------------------------------I know in limit you're OK to go ahead and play your flush draws as long as you're getting pot odds, but I haven't read enough on NL to really know what I should do. Especially in a situation like this.This is why I'm posting this.Berate me if I need to be. I already know the preflop call was stupid (but it was sooted!). But what about the rest?

#2 BeanGW

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 05:39 AM

Ok Bro... well, yeah, you played this one pretty poorly on all streets.Fold preflop... as you know.Fold the flop (how do you figure you are getting pot odds when he has just overbet the pot?????) And on the turn, he's only gonna call your all-in with the made Ace high flush here. You will not get paid off when you have the best hand, and will only be called when you are beat. And yes, you will see that happen ALL the time.

#3 BeanGW

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 05:43 AM

Just to add one more note regarding the difference between NL and Limit. Implied odds many times will allow you to call bets in NL that you wouldn't be able to call in Limit. Reason being that you are fairly certain that when you hit your hand, you can milk enough bets outta the villain to make it worth your while, whereas in Limit one or two extra big bets is about the best you can hope for.In this instance I don't think either one of you had a large enough chip stack to where it would make sense to call a bet that was buying the pot for the second nut flush draw.

#4 GamblinLeaf

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 06:28 AM

jsull said:

I had already noted that the button stays in a hand too long, so if I hit this flush, his entire stack is mine. (implied odds?)
Not that it matters, but I'm really curious to know what the button had. Given the above statement, might he have called the all-in on the turn with two pair, jacks and tens, and filled up on the river? Or did he have trash and your king-high flush held up?

#5 jsull

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 06:28 AM

thank you for your advice (and going easy on me)The high bet amount by the villian on the flop told me I really should've folded. I was playing really poor yesterday, and this hand was the antithesis of it all. I'll try to concentrate on the fact that I really did play horribly here and not the end result. Because I know the end result does NOT come in my favor most of the time.

#6 jsull

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 06:31 AM

GamblinLeaf said:

jsull said:

I had already noted that the button stays in a hand too long, so if I hit this flush, his entire stack is mine. (implied odds?)
Not that it matters, but I'm really curious to know what the button had. Given the above statement, might he have called the all-in on the turn with two pair, jacks and tens, and filled up on the river?
Button shows A :club: A :D two pairs, aces and tens

#7 Briguy

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 06:39 AM

I don't see anything wrong with your turn bet. Button likely doesn't raise behind so many callers without a high PP or AK-A9s, AK, AQ, or KQs. Maybe throw in some other suited broadways, but the only hands you're behind on the turn are AQ, AT, A9 spaded. That's three. Of his other likely holdings, you are a 3.6-1 favourite over 99,TT, and JJ, and a huge favourite over J10. Other than those 7 likely hands, he is drawing dead. I assume that he outdrew you. Unless he was holding Axs, his call was -EV (3.1-1 pot odds), and he his the type of player you should follow.That said, I don't think you should've been there at the turn. Of course, you should've folded preflop to the raise, but you already know that. I think the flop call was also bad...implied odds were just under 3-1 (his post-flop stack was only ~$20, so you are betting $9 to win ~$26), with 4-1 odds of hitting the spade on the turn. You must include some reverse implied odds because of the possibility of AQs-ATs, and the redraw on 99 or TT. Would you have followed an all-in on the turn if the spade hadn't dropped? You would've been getting only 3.1-1 pot odds in that case.As some other poster here likes to say: All IMO, of course. And I'm assuming that MP1 will fold to the $9 bet, which may not be correct.Edit: Whoops! I didn't realize that the Button absolutely had to have aces, thanks to the donkey-esque betting structure at the table. Kinda helps to narrow the range of his holdings, wot?

#8 BeanGW

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 06:53 AM

Briguy said:

I don't see anything wrong with your turn bet. Button likely doesn't raise behind so many callers without a high PP or AK-A9s, AK, AQ, or KQs. Maybe throw in some other suited broadways, but the only hands you're behind on the turn are AQ, AT, A9 spaded. That's three. Of his other likely holdings, you are a 3.6-1 favourite over 99,TT, and JJ, and a huge favourite over J10. .
You know, as i was rereading the post I kind of started thinking the same thing as you. The pf raise does kind of set off a signal or two that there's a better than average chance that he doesn't have the flush (especially since you are holding the K.) He really could only be ahead of you here with A-Q.If you've put yourself in this position on the turn against the PF raiser, I guess the push isn't a horrible play.

#9 GamblinLeaf

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 06:57 AM

jsull said:

Button shows A :club: A :D two pairs, aces and tens
Ahh ... so ... well, you're read on pre-flop betting structure at this table was perfect then. Pat yourself on the back for that, at least, then trust your reads.

#10 UglyJimStudly

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 07:16 AM

[quote name='jsull]Now. I know I probably should have folded this preflop. I know this.Well' date=' so long as you know this. Maybe get it tattooed on the inside of your eyelids to make sure. [quote'] But here is my thinking here (lol, let's go deep inside the mind of a fish)... My plan was, if the board paired up, to represent a set. As passive as everybody has been, they should fold.That actually is good thinking, and the way to make a passive, predictable game very profitable... with the provision that you need position to make those kinds of moves. Making that move from late position is smart, aggressive poker as you can see how everybody reacts to the flop and abort mission if it looks like anybody hit strongly enough to call. Making the same move from UTG+2 is pure gambling, and if you're going to do that you might as well hit the roulette or craps tables - a lot less waiting around than poker.[quote]Well this flop throws off my "represent a set" idea. So now I have a pretty good flush draw. I had already noted that the button stays in a hand too long, so if I hit this flush, his entire stack is mine. (implied odds?)Important point to note here: your represent a set idea was based on the ability to make people fold because they thought you'd hit a big hand. Now you're saying your new plan enables you to extract money because the button would pay off a big hand. It sounds very much like justification after the fact, which is a form of self-deception that can be very expensive in poker.[quote]I know in limit you're OK to go ahead and play your flush draws as long as you're getting pot odds, but I haven't read enough on NL to really know what I should do. Especially in a situation like this.[/quote]Same odds apply. In no-limit, the variance is greater - on the one hand, it's easier to justify bets based on implied odds since you can try and move big money in when you hit. On the other hand, opponents can and will force you to rely on implied odds by structuring bets so as to deny anybody odds to draw. In the end, what it means is you need a much bigger bankroll to safely play the same level of blinds, and the mindset to sit through the massive swings that can occur when you simply don't hit for a few dozen draws in a row.[quote]Berate me if I need to be. I already know the preflop call was stupid (but it was sooted!). But what about the rest?[/quote]Mechanically I don't think there's anything really wrong with your bets from the flop on. The danger point, IMHO, is your thought process - convincing yourself that first you can bluff an opponent into folding, and then that they won't fold when you're no longer bluffing, is really just telling yourself what you want to hear. And that has the potential to cost you a ridiculous amount of money in the long run, far more than most hand selection or tactical errors.
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#11 BeanGW

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 07:31 AM

UglyJimStudly said:

Mechanically I don't think there's anything really wrong with your bets from the flop on. The danger point, IMHO, is your thought process - convincing yourself that first you can bluff an opponent into folding, and then that they won't fold when you're no longer bluffing, is really just telling yourself what you want to hear. And that has the potential to cost you a ridiculous amount of money in the long run, far more than most hand selection or tactical errors.
Jim... his flop call was mechanically lousy. Pot odds = lousy + implied odds = even lousier cauz neither one of them had enough chips to make it worthwhile +reverse implied odds for a redraw and not having the nutz flush= yeah not a good poker play IMHO. Villain bets $9 into a $6 pot and left himself with only $10 left (and Hero only had like 12). With the nutz flush draw, with the potential of getting a LOT more $$$ out of the villain if you hit, when both you and villain have a lot more $$$ sitting in front of you, it maybe would be an OK call. But here, no way Jose. How is that a good call by Hero?

#12 Absolute

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 07:52 AM

jsull said:

Critique please.  Please keep in mind, I've only been playing for a month and a half.  I'm understanding a bit more of limit holdem after reading GSIH, but still NL I seem to do better with.  But when it comes to situations like this, it's where I might as well grow gills.It's PP last night.  Got myself a table full of all species of fish (self included).   They were mostly playing predictable &/or passive besides 2 calling stations.   I don't know when they all agreed on it, but it seemed that the standard raises went like so.  Aces, you bet $2, Kings you bet $1.  All other good hands, minraise, else limp.  I stuck with this table for a while, because I knew I'd get paid off big.  I had already doubled up with a Nut Straight vs an Ace set.  I've been trying the "short stack"/tight play method, and I like the way it's worked out for the most part.  But when I start getting the same stacks as most of the table, then I get looser.Anyway, here's how the hand played out.Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) convertersaw flop|saw showdownHero ($24.45)MP1 ($19.35) (calling station who let me double up earlier)MP2 ($16)MP3 ($30.47)CO ($26.3)Button ($22.31)SB ($16.75)BB ($28.65)UTG ($29.81)UTG+1 ($5.65)Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with [Ks], [8s].  SB posts a blind of $0.1.    2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, MP1 calls $1.75, MP3 folds.Now.  I know I probably should have folded this preflop.  I know this.  But here is my thinking here (lol, let's go deep inside the mind of a fish)...  My plan was, if the board paired up, to represent a set.  As passive as everybody has been, they should fold.[b]Flop: ($6.60) [3s], [9s], [Th] (3 players)Well this flop throws off my "represent a set" idea.  So now I have a pretty good flush draw.  I had already noted that the button stays in a hand too long, so if I hit this flush, his entire stack is mine. (implied odds?)Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button bets $9, Hero calls $9, MP1 folds.So, he's going to make me pay or chase me off.  [b]Turn: ($24.60) [Js] (2 players)  Converter is always messed up at this point for me.   I went all in for my remaining $13.45, he called with his $11.31  The only way I'm beat at this point is if he holds the A :club: , and one more spikes on the river.[b]River: [Td] (2 players)--------------------------------------------------------I know in limit you're OK to go ahead and play your flush draws as long as you're getting pot odds, but I haven't read enough on NL to really know what I should do.  Especially in a situation like this.This is why I'm posting this.Berate me if I need to be.  I already know the preflop call was stupid (but it was sooted!).  But what about the rest?
you know you should have folded PF but you didnt.thats what fishies do!so my answer is, that last one.
i saw him at the riverbank. he was breaking bread and giving thanks. with crosses made of pipes and planks. leaned up against the nitrous tanks.
he said take a hit. hold your breath and i'll dunk your head. then when you wake up, you'll be high as hell and born again.

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#13 Blink20

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 09:09 AM

[quote] But when I start getting the same stacks as most of the table, then I get looser.[/quote]No need for that, this isn't a tournament, its a low limit cash game. Keep playing solid, tight/aggressive, your stack size at a cash game like this shouldn't influence how loose/tight you play.[quote]Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with [Ks], [8s]. SB posts a blind of $0.1. 2 foldsAs everyone has said, fold this junk. One, don't limp in early with it, two, don't call a raise with it. As you said... [quote]Now. I know I probably should have folded this preflop. I know this. [/quote][quote] My plan was, if the board paired up, to represent a set. As passive as everybody has been, they should fold.[/quote]Silly plan. Don't plan fancy moves at this limit. You've said they are fish, you have calling stations there. No need to make absurd plans like this.[quote]Hero checks, MP1 checks, [color=#CC3333]Button bets $9Now its time for a little simple NL math. You know the button will pay you off if you hit your flush. So it is nine to you, you have to hit on the turn, so your odds are about 5-1 to hit on the turn. Meaning putting in 9, you need to win atleast 45. There is 6.60 in the pot, so the button needs to have about 40 in front of him. That is not the case, you are not getting implied odds.So no implied odds for you, fold here.[quote]Converter is always messed up at this point for me. I went all in for my remaining $13.45, he called with his $11.31 [/quote]Ok, so you opted to take the worst of it. You hit your flush, by all means this is the first right play you made :-) . Quick recap:Fold preflop. Fold to raise preflop. Fold to bet on flop. Good move on turn when you make your hand.

#14 monoatomic

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 09:53 AM

Quote

You will not get paid off when you have the best hand, and will only be called when you are beat.
Whoever came up with this statement should be shot in the ****ing head.This is about the most untrue thing I have ever heard in my entire life, and it needs to stop being said. It makes no sense whatsoever and is code name for"I am a nut peddler and won't bet big or call big on anything but my precious nuts." There are plenty of hands here that call an all in bet especially after betting $9 on the flop. A straight with a spade in his hand, trips with a spade in his hand, Q8 spades(you know how people love those straight flush draws) I would probably call with AspadeQx in my hand knowing I have a redraw to the nut flush and a straight even if I am behind. There are a lot of hands that call this down in a cash game because a lot of the hands have outs on the river even if the person has a K high flush on the turn. ESPECIALLY when they raise the flop $9.As far as the OP's play. Preflop was dumb fold that.Flop was even worse. You were drawing to the second flush, and ontop of that you are calling someone who raised preflop and then overbet the pot on the flop. What do you do if your turn isn't a spade? Do you call again hoping the river saves you since you have put in half your stack now with K8 suited?The turn you push all in which I can't really blame you for seeing as how half your stack was in the pot and you really can't bet $5 into a 24 dollar pot.The opponents play was spot of until the turn when he called on a flush/straight board. He bumped it preflop and bet so big that the draws would have to pay to catch. Just another bad beat aces cracked story now that we have to listen to in General.

#15 cdddc75

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 10:06 AM

Blink20 said:

Quick recap:Fold preflop. Fold to raise preflop. Fold to bet on flop. Good move on turn when you make your hand.

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#16 Absolute

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Posted 07 June 2005 - 11:38 AM

monoatomic said:

Quote

You will not get paid off when you have the best hand, and will only be called when you are beat.
Whoever came up with this statement should be shot in the censored head.This is about the most untrue thing I have ever heard in my entire life, and it needs to stop being said. It makes no sense whatsoever and is code name for"I am a nut peddler and won't bet big or call big on anything but my precious nuts." There are plenty of hands here that call an all in bet especially after betting $9 on the flop. A straight with a spade in his hand, trips with a spade in his hand, Q8 spades(you know how people love those straight flush draws) I would probably call with AspadeQx in my hand knowing I have a redraw to the nut flush and a straight even if I am behind. There are a lot of hands that call this down in a cash game because a lot of the hands have outs on the river even if the person has a K high flush on the turn. ESPECIALLY when they raise the flop $9.As far as the OP's play. Preflop was dumb fold that.Flop was even worse. You were drawing to the second flush, and ontop of that you are calling someone who raised preflop and then overbet the pot on the flop. What do you do if your turn isn't a spade? Do you call again hoping the river saves you since you have put in half your stack now with K8 suited?The turn you push all in which I can't really blame you for seeing as how half your stack was in the pot and you really can't bet $5 into a 24 dollar pot.The opponents play was spot of until the turn when he called on a flush/straight board. He bumped it preflop and bet so big that the draws would have to pay to catch. Just another bad beat aces cracked story now that we have to listen to in General.
There are plenty of situations where "you only get called when you are beat" is the best argument not to bet or raise.But you are correct in that this certainly is not one of them.
i saw him at the riverbank. he was breaking bread and giving thanks. with crosses made of pipes and planks. leaned up against the nitrous tanks.
he said take a hit. hold your breath and i'll dunk your head. then when you wake up, you'll be high as hell and born again.

- The Hold Steady




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