Posted 07 June 2005 - 07:16 AM
[quote name='jsull]Now. I know I probably should have folded this preflop. I know this.Well' date=' so long as you know this. Maybe get it tattooed on the inside of your eyelids to make sure. [quote'] But here is my thinking here (lol, let's go deep inside the mind of a fish)... My plan was, if the board paired up, to represent a set. As passive as everybody has been, they should fold.That actually is good thinking, and the way to make a passive, predictable game very profitable... with the provision that you need position to make those kinds of moves. Making that move from late position is smart, aggressive poker as you can see how everybody reacts to the flop and abort mission if it looks like anybody hit strongly enough to call. Making the same move from UTG+2 is pure gambling, and if you're going to do that you might as well hit the roulette or craps tables - a lot less waiting around than poker.[quote]Well this flop throws off my "represent a set" idea. So now I have a pretty good flush draw. I had already noted that the button stays in a hand too long, so if I hit this flush, his entire stack is mine. (implied odds?)Important point to note here: your represent a set idea was based on the ability to make people fold because they thought you'd hit a big hand. Now you're saying your new plan enables you to extract money because the button would pay off a big hand. It sounds very much like justification after the fact, which is a form of self-deception that can be very expensive in poker.[quote]I know in limit you're OK to go ahead and play your flush draws as long as you're getting pot odds, but I haven't read enough on NL to really know what I should do. Especially in a situation like this.[/quote]Same odds apply. In no-limit, the variance is greater - on the one hand, it's easier to justify bets based on implied odds since you can try and move big money in when you hit. On the other hand, opponents can and will force you to rely on implied odds by structuring bets so as to deny anybody odds to draw. In the end, what it means is you need a much bigger bankroll to safely play the same level of blinds, and the mindset to sit through the massive swings that can occur when you simply don't hit for a few dozen draws in a row.[quote]Berate me if I need to be. I already know the preflop call was stupid (but it was sooted!). But what about the rest?[/quote]Mechanically I don't think there's anything really wrong with your bets from the flop on. The danger point, IMHO, is your thought process - convincing yourself that first you can bluff an opponent into folding, and then that they won't fold when you're no longer bluffing, is really just telling yourself what you want to hear. And that has the potential to cost you a ridiculous amount of money in the long run, far more than most hand selection or tactical errors.
"I haven't played poker, but if it's anything like Dungeons and Dragons I'll be up to my baldric in +1 scimitars before you can say Cure Light Wounds." - Stephen Colbert