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Daily Fantasy Sports. Lets All Make Some Money


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#41 mrdannyg

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 11:31 AM

View Postserge, on 16 September 2015 - 11:27 AM, said:

I think thats something the sites can curtail, I think some of the smaller sites may not even have that option....If they are losing market share due to fish not playing against 500 entries from one person, then you get rid of it.

Its similar to HUDs in poker..All the top pros use HUDS to get stats and tendencies..There is a thought that online poker is very tough to beat unless you are using a HUD

Now that I cant play on Pokerstars I have been playing on Bovada Poker. They run a very interesting software where you are anonymous. You dont know who you are playing against , other than its player 7...Which makes it a lot similar to live poker, where the only info you have is the info you have as you build a story on the guy while he is at your table.

I think HUDs should be banned from poker..WSOP who runs a legal site in Nevada, doesnt allow HUDs..

That's an interesting idea. If I was very confident in the quality of the software (which I would never be, especially for a new entity and all the crap we saw with online poker where people had cheats and backdoors for YEARS), and the site did a good job of severely limiting multiple entries (whether it be cracking down on people multi-accounting or just how many entries any person is allowed), then I could see how the sites could have a lot of success. Then again, without million-dollar guarantees fueled by pros jamming thousands of entries, the sites might not be able to afford their 8 (9?) figure advertising budgets that has everyone talking about them and new fish signing up every Sunday...
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#42 digitalmonkey

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 11:31 AM

Some think HUDs are overvalued...

http://www.pokerlist...y-poker-players
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#43 MapleLeafpoker

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 11:37 AM

View Postmrdannyg, on 16 September 2015 - 11:28 AM, said:

This whole topic is so interesting, I'm really loving hearing your guys opinions on it, especially because of all the parallels to online poker.

I feel the same way, this is really teaching me a lot, and I have soo many questions that Im not even bringing up, feel like Ive already asked a ton. lol

#44 MapleLeafpoker

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 11:39 AM

View Postserge, on 16 September 2015 - 11:06 AM, said:

You guys are missing a huge point. Significant percentage of DFS players just don't care about sharks, edges, stats. They do it for enjoyment and a chance to turn a measly $20 into $2million.

There are 100s of casino games that have been out for decades and there is significant data of house edge and casino hold. People still flock to these games.

Some table games games like Caribbean stud and variants have edge of numbers like 30 percent. People love the games and the action.

Saying that DFS is a solved by few( my research showed there are less than 500 true sharks) will do nothing to the masses.

Having said that I'm pouring significant time right now on learning the programs, and improving my chances. Talking to a math guy here actually devising our own statistical program.

I did the same thing with poker back in the day. Just put in more hours reading, studying every chance I got where I best the game on a significant clip for several years of full time devotion.

You are making me question my initial thoughts, I will grant you that.

I think my ego about my fantasy sports acumen is just not allowing me to throw money away at a sports game I feel like is rigged. Maybe if I put in the time like you are, it might change.


I really wish hockey was just goals and assists. I dont give a **** about spreadsheets/whatever, Ill put my money up if those are the only stats.

#45 serge

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 12:54 PM

Little bit of research will tell us that Hisashi Iwakuma is pitching today with Brian ONora as the home plate Ump...Onora is ranked high as an ump for a pitcher.

Also the Twins batters are rated a bit high today as the wind in Target Field in Minnesota is blowing Right to Left currently at 14 mph..Detroit has leftie Daniel Norris on the mound, it bodes well for righties.

There is a plethora of these info out there, that you can use to build your lineups and have and edge over the average button pusher.
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#46 digitalmonkey

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 01:32 PM

Is O'Nora gettin' any at home or is he having to rub one out on his own because if that's the case then his arm might be a little tired. Then again, maybe he doesn't use his pitching arm.

So many factors...
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#47 MapleLeafpoker

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 01:34 PM

Serge why dont you post your daily plays before the games start, so we can follow along?

#48 serge

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 01:41 PM

View PostMapleLeafpoker, on 16 September 2015 - 01:34 PM, said:

Serge why dont you post your daily plays before the games start, so we can follow along?

I m still very new to this and have a long way to go..Just found a website with all that info and trying to put it together myself..I know when my picks fall flat tonight you guys will all laugh..But what the hell, I will post my starting lineup.
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#49 serge

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 01:48 PM

Serge's MLB Fantasy Lineup..I have entered several big low limit tourneys as well as 10 heads up $1 matches.

P David Price $12500 vs Atlanta
P Danny Salazar $9500 vs KC
C Jarrod Saltamacchia $2400 vs Arizona
1B Joe Mauer $3600 vs San Diego
2B Brian Dozier $4300 vs Detroit
3B Miguel Sano $4700 vs Detroit
SS Daniel Castro $2000 vs Toronto
OF Eduardo Escobar $3300 vs Detroit
OF Aaron Hicks $3700 vs Detroit
OF David Peralta $3300 vs San Diego
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#50 serge

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 01:50 PM

This lineup is more of a big field tourney lineup...Hoping for a big Minnesota output vs Norris..Also lot of cheap value plays to be able to fit in Price and Salazar who I believe to have very good matchups tonight.
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#51 MapleLeafpoker

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 01:56 PM

curious why you thought Salazar vs KC was a good matchup? As far as I know, KC is a pretty good hitting club, and I know lately Zobrist, Hosmer and Moustakas especially have been very hot.

Salazar can have monster games though. (not knowing whats stats DFS uses, just my own AL only pool stats of ER, WHIP, K, W)

#52 serge

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 02:03 PM

View PostMapleLeafpoker, on 16 September 2015 - 01:56 PM, said:

curious why you thought Salazar vs KC was a good matchup? As far as I know, KC is a pretty good hitting club, and I know lately Zobrist, Hosmer and Moustakas especially have been very hot.

Salazar can have monster games though. (not knowing whats stats DFS uses, just my own AL only pool stats of ER, WHIP, K, W)

The simulator I am using has Salazar ranked very high today..Price, Gonzalez and Salazar..Also Iwakuma...The simulator gives points for certain things ..Salazar is getting points today for Ballpark, Wind, Umpire and the fact that his team is favourite in Vegas..Wins give you points..Also things like "price lower on DraftKings than Fan Duel" and SO s per nine innings gives a very good rating for tonight.
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#53 serge

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 02:04 PM

Arp :
Here is the scoring at Draft Kings for baseball:
  • Hitters will accumulate points as follows:
    • Single = +3 PTs
    • Double = +5 PTs
    • Triple = +8 PTs
    • Home Run = +10 PTs
    • Run Batted In = +2 PTs
    • Run = +2 PTs
    • Base on Balls = +2 PTs
    • Hit By Pitch = +2 PTs
    • Stolen Base = +5 PTs
    • Caught Stealing = -2 PTs
  • Pitchers will accumulate points as follows:
    • Inning Pitched = +2.25 PTs
    • Strike Out = +2 PTs
    • Win = +4 PTs
    • Earned Run Allowed = -2 PTs
    • Hit Against = -0.6 PTs
    • Base on Balls Against = -0.6 PTs
    • Hit Batsman = -0.6 PTs
    • Complete Game = +2.5 PTs
    • Complete Game Shut Out = +2.5 PTs
    • No Hitter = +5 PTs

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#54 serge

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 02:10 PM

Take it FWIW, I am predicting(well the simulator is) that David Peralta will have a big game. He has the highest number of any player tonight.
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#55 digitalmonkey

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 02:14 PM

View Postserge, on 16 September 2015 - 01:41 PM, said:



I m still very new to this and have a long way to go..Just found a website with all that info and trying to put it together myself..I know when my picks fall flat tonight you guys will all laugh..But what the hell, I will post my starting lineup.

I don't think anyone here is good enough to laugh and even if any of us were that good we probably still wouldn't laugh but offer advice instead.
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#56 digitalmonkey

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 02:15 PM

View Postserge, on 16 September 2015 - 01:48 PM, said:

Serge's MLB Fantasy Lineup..I have entered several big low limit tourneys as well as 10 heads up $1 matches.

P David Price $12500 vs Atlanta
P Danny Salazar $9500 vs KC
C Jarrod Saltamacchia $2400 vs Arizona
1B Joe Mauer $3600 vs San Diego
2B Brian Dozier $4300 vs Detroit
3B Miguel Sano $4700 vs Detroit
SS Daniel Castro $2000 vs Toronto
OF Eduardo Escobar $3300 vs Detroit
OF Aaron Hicks $3700 vs Detroit
OF David Peralta $3300 vs San Diego

I'm very interested in how you do with the heads up matches.
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#57 serge

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 02:26 PM

Ok I am in for $16..

$10 in $1 heads up matches.
$3 in the $150K Moonshot with a first prize of $12000
$2 in the $1k Flare with a first prize of $200
$1 in the $750 Solo Shot with a first prize of $75

Sweat with me as I test my research and theories...
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#58 MapleLeafpoker

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 02:54 PM

View Postdigitalmonkey, on 16 September 2015 - 02:15 PM, said:

I'm very interested in how you do with the heads up matches.

not a shot at all at Serge, and I thought even he had said, that lineup he set up was more of a "all in" play for a mega-win/big payout/1000 entries game.

having that many Minn guys doesnt seem like an ideal play long term for a heads up matchup, does it?

#59 MapleLeafpoker

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 02:55 PM

View Postdigitalmonkey, on 16 September 2015 - 02:14 PM, said:

I don't think anyone here is good enough to laugh and even if any of us were that good we probably still wouldn't laugh but offer advice instead.

like you said, even if i was good enough, which i def am not, Id rather use this thread as a positive place to help each other

#60 MapleLeafpoker

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Posted 16 September 2015 - 03:00 PM

strictly a baseball suggestion....Id take a chance on Yankees tonight, as SP Archer for Tampa, while having a great year overall, has been a little shaky lately. Maybe due to overall numbers Yanks will be underpriced. If recent Archer games are not taken into account, they may be a good play.

I have Archer in my pool, following him closely.




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