Jump to content


Navybuttons Thoughts On Baseball


  • Please log in to reply
56 replies to this topic

#41 David_Sklansky

David_Sklansky

    He/Him Pronouns

  • Members
  • 3,172 posts
  • Gender:Not Telling
  • Favorite Poker Game:Holdem, while looking at pornography

Posted 04 November 2013 - 08:21 PM

I'm glad we all agree, but some haters better show up soon or I'm going to have to swing back the other way.
12. When menstruating, use a product that right for your menstrual flow. A tampon too big can irritate and develop fungus. A product left in too long can cause bacteria or fungus build up. Products can be changed at least every 4 hours. Except when sleeping, they can be left in for the night

#42 The Machine

The Machine

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 622 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 05 November 2013 - 08:56 AM

Oh look, a new article about the strike zone, specifically the "lefty strike."

http://www.fangraphs...e-lefty-strike/

Posted Image

That box to the left is off the plate.

#43 CobaltBlue

CobaltBlue

    The Outlier

  • Members
  • 10,371 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royal Palm Beach, FL
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hold 'Em, Crazy Pineapple, 2-7 TD

Posted 07 November 2013 - 12:04 PM

I might've mentioned it on here before, but I don't understand why this isn't happening.

Found an article a few years ago that suggested starting a better offensive player in the three-spot during an away game to give him an at-bat, then immediately sub for him defensively in the bottom of the inning. Then there was follow-up discussion...

"Well, the hypothetical that the guy in the article posits is that in away games against a RHP, the Braves could start Eric Hinske at SS and batting third. They note that he's not capable of playing shortstop, but that doesn't matter, since he'll never have to play defense. They'd sub Alex Gonzalez into SS in the bottom of the inning. Gonzalez isn't going to be as big of an offensive threat, but he's our natural SS.

Basically, he says this: 'Eric Hinske is, of course, incapable of playing SS. But he won’t ever see the field if used in this manner, rather he’ll be subbed for Alex Gonzalez once the team has to play defense. Alex Gonzalez becomes the 12th Atlanta hitter of the game, increasing his ratio of defensive innings to plate appearances. You lose a few runs by having Gonzalez hit higher in the batting order during the rest of the trips through it, but you gain even more by replacing 60 or so of Gonzalez’s PA’s with those of Hinske (and a few of Hinske’s PA’s go to the next pinch-hitter, Joe Mather I assume).'

Someone brought up the problem of burning your best PH in the first inning in a situation that might not be a great scoring opportunity...but then someone had an absolutely awesome creative solution in the comments...

'Take it one step further:
Pencil the previous day’s starting pitcher into the lineup at SS batting third, then when his spot comes up decide if you want to use your pinch hitter (runner in scoring position, 1 out) or your defensive guy (bases empty, 2 out).'

That would be really awesome."

Like, why hasn't someone like Maddon done this?

#44 The Machine

The Machine

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 622 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 07 November 2013 - 12:15 PM

But now you've got your 6th or 8th or whatever best hitter batting 3rd.

It's an interesting idea for a team like the Red Sox playing in a NL park when they weren't planning on playing Ortiz in the field.

#45 The Machine

The Machine

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 622 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 07 November 2013 - 12:43 PM

Posted Image

#46 The Machine

The Machine

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 622 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 07 November 2013 - 01:42 PM

The season's worst called balls, or why catchers matter to balls and strikes.

http://www.fangraphs...t-called-balls/

This pitch was 1.5 inches from the center of the strike zone.

Posted Image

#47 CobaltBlue

CobaltBlue

    The Outlier

  • Members
  • 10,371 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royal Palm Beach, FL
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hold 'Em, Crazy Pineapple, 2-7 TD

Posted 07 November 2013 - 05:55 PM

View PostThe Machine, on 07 November 2013 - 12:15 PM, said:

But now you've got your 6th or 8th or whatever best hitter batting 3rd.
Once you start flowing through the lineup, I'm not sure how much that matters. Like, he's not going to start coming up 3rd every inning.

#48 mrdannyg

mrdannyg

    Cheese Salesman

  • Members
  • 20,264 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 November 2013 - 05:32 AM

View PostCobaltBlue, on 07 November 2013 - 12:04 PM, said:

I might've mentioned it on here before, but I don't understand why this isn't happening.

Found an article a few years ago that suggested starting a better offensive player in the three-spot during an away game to give him an at-bat, then immediately sub for him defensively in the bottom of the inning. Then there was follow-up discussion...

"Well, the hypothetical that the guy in the article posits is that in away games against a RHP, the Braves could start Eric Hinske at SS and batting third. They note that he's not capable of playing shortstop, but that doesn't matter, since he'll never have to play defense. They'd sub Alex Gonzalez into SS in the bottom of the inning. Gonzalez isn't going to be as big of an offensive threat, but he's our natural SS.

Basically, he says this: 'Eric Hinske is, of course, incapable of playing SS. But he won’t ever see the field if used in this manner, rather he’ll be subbed for Alex Gonzalez once the team has to play defense. Alex Gonzalez becomes the 12th Atlanta hitter of the game, increasing his ratio of defensive innings to plate appearances. You lose a few runs by having Gonzalez hit higher in the batting order during the rest of the trips through it, but you gain even more by replacing 60 or so of Gonzalez’s PA’s with those of Hinske (and a few of Hinske’s PA’s go to the next pinch-hitter, Joe Mather I assume).'

Someone brought up the problem of burning your best PH in the first inning in a situation that might not be a great scoring opportunity...but then someone had an absolutely awesome creative solution in the comments...

'Take it one step further:
Pencil the previous day’s starting pitcher into the lineup at SS batting third, then when his spot comes up decide if you want to use your pinch hitter (runner in scoring position, 1 out) or your defensive guy (bases empty, 2 out).'

That would be really awesome."

Like, why hasn't someone like Maddon done this?

Other than that they'd probably put in a 'fair play' rule of some sort (or maybe already has one) that prevents a situation like this, I love it. Love it so much. Strat-o-matic guys should take note too!
Long signatures are really annoying.

#49 NickCave

NickCave

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 966 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Interests:Marcel Marceau
  • Favorite Poker Game:No Pussy Blues

Posted 08 November 2013 - 06:37 AM

Well, one of the problems is, whomever your usual #3 (or #2 or whatever) is, he's getting pushed down in the lineup (as is everyone else), taking ABs away from your best hitters and giving them to a guy who has pinch hit or platoon talent.

#50 The Machine

The Machine

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 622 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 November 2013 - 08:30 AM

View PostCobaltBlue, on 07 November 2013 - 05:55 PM, said:

Once you start flowing through the lineup, I'm not sure how much that matters. Like, he's not going to start coming up 3rd every inning.

View PostNickCave, on 08 November 2013 - 06:37 AM, said:

Well, one of the problems is, whomever your usual #3 (or #2 or whatever) is, he's getting pushed down in the lineup (as is everyone else), taking ABs away from your best hitters and giving them to a guy who has pinch hit or platoon talent.

Right, lineup construction is simple. You want your best hitters batting the most times. Traditionally your best hitters hits 3rd, but now the analytics crowd is saying he should really be hitting 2nd, even if he's a power guy.

I think he was probably put in the 3rd slot originally because RBI's. You need that guy after a couple batters so he can drive in runs. But like you said, once you start flowing through the lineup, it doesn't matter as much. Get him up earlier and more often.

#51 The Machine

The Machine

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 622 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 November 2013 - 12:31 PM

View PostThe Machine, on 04 November 2013 - 04:52 PM, said:

I do think the strike zone shouldn't be called by humans anymore. You would still have an umpire back there for hit batters, foul tips, stepping out of the batter's box, etc., so the union wouldn't complain about loss of jobs.

How quickly could the strike zone box relay a signal to the umpire to say if it's a strike? Like he wears a buzzer and it buzzes for every pitch in the strike zone. The umpire would still be back there giving the strike call and the emphatic strike three calls, but the only difference is that he isn't the one making the determination.

Grantland addressed this and other options today.

http://www.grantland...placing-umpires

"Pavlidis proposes putting a buzzer in the umpire's pocket. Brooks and Port prefer a visual aid. As Port points out, an understandable instinct for self-preservation leads umpires to position themselves in the "slot" between batter and catcher, which gives them an off-center perspective on the plate and impairs their ability to see the outside corner. Port likes the idea of a PITCHf/x-informed "heads-up display … that would give the umpire a better overall look at the strike zone," compensating for the need to protect his non-robotic body. "If he centers it properly as the pitch comes in," Port continues, "in the corner of the mask there is a red or green light" that would signal strike or ball. An LED indicator would be an easy addition to make to the umpire's mask."

#52 NickCave

NickCave

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 966 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Interests:Marcel Marceau
  • Favorite Poker Game:No Pussy Blues

Posted 08 November 2013 - 02:23 PM

I have a feeling a version of google glass will end up being robot ump's friend. "Ok glass, I have no idea..."

#53 The Machine

The Machine

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 622 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 November 2013 - 02:28 PM

View PostNickCave, on 08 November 2013 - 02:23 PM, said:

I have a feeling a version of google glass will end up being robot ump's friend. "Ok glass, I have no idea..."

Posted Image

#54 BigDMcGee

BigDMcGee

    Forum Entitlist

  • Members
  • 26,670 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 November 2013 - 11:31 PM

View PostNickCave, on 08 November 2013 - 06:37 AM, said:

Well, one of the problems is, whomever your usual #3 (or #2 or whatever) is, he's getting pushed down in the lineup (as is everyone else), taking ABs away from your best hitters and giving them to a guy who has pinch hit or platoon talent.


I also don't think you actually save almost any at bats. Lets say you're playing a game that has 5 people reach base all game. 32 plate appearances total. Your 1, 2, 4 and 5th batter will have had 4 plate appearances, your 6, 7, 8, 9 will have 3. Your 3rd batter will have one gimmick at bat, and 3 real at bats from your crap fhitter. So, if you just kept your crap hitter at 8, he would have had 3 real at bats anyway, so.. what did you gain, an extra at bat for your utility guy while your number 5 batter gets bumped to 6 and loses an at bat? Grats?
"We are only wise in knowing that we know nothing"
-Socrates

"Dust. Wind. Dude."
-Ted Theodore Logan

"I'm a basketball player and a businessman, not a Thundercat,"
-Lebron James

#55 NickCave

NickCave

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 966 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Interests:Marcel Marceau
  • Favorite Poker Game:No Pussy Blues

Posted 09 November 2013 - 12:25 AM

View PostBigDMcGee, on 08 November 2013 - 11:31 PM, said:

I also don't think you actually save almost any at bats. Lets say you're playing a game that has 5 people reach base all game. 32 plate appearances total. Your 1, 2, 4 and 5th batter will have had 4 plate appearances, your 6, 7, 8, 9 will have 3. Your 3rd batter will have one gimmick at bat, and 3 real at bats from your crap fhitter. So, if you just kept your crap hitter at 8, he would have had 3 real at bats anyway, so.. what did you gain, an extra at bat for your utility guy while your number 5 batter gets bumped to 6 and loses an at bat? Grats?

Yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying. If you're moving good hitters down in the order, those good hitters will, collectively, lose enough plate appearances throughout the course of the season as a result to eliminate any value that you gain by getting a guy a PA in the first inning who is probably, like, about as good as your #7 or #6 hitter (at best). Then you lose the flexibility of using that decent bench bat in a higher leverage situation.

Say you have a pinch hitter whose only job is to waddle off the bench, hit, and then come out of the game. If he's a good hitter, you want him to be hitting in important situations, where it really matters what he does. You'd rather him get 50 PA in high leverage spots than 81 in the first inning, regardless of base/out/run state.

Plus, there's a really good chance, especially in the first inning, that the guy you inserted into the lineup will be hitting in a high leverage spot, BUT YOU'D RATHER HE WEREN'T.

Say, for example, you're the Tigers.

Austin Jackson leads off with a BB.
Torii Hunter singles, Austin Jackson to third.

Now, in the 3 hole, you have, I dunno, Andy Dirks (with the intention to replace him with Jose Iglesias in the bottom of the 1st) slotted in there. Sure. Cool. Dirks is okay, I guess. But wouldn't you much rather go "Cabrera, Fielder, Victor Martinez" there instead of "Dirks, Cabrera, Fielder?" The whole idea has very little upside, and all sorts of downside. Whenever the 3 spot comes up in the top of the first and it is HIGH LEVERAGE, using the one-and-done offensive replacement is an obvious mistake. Whenever the 3 spot comes up and the situation is neutral, we're transferring PAs from our 4-5-6 hitters to an inferior hitter, and burning a bench spot in the process.

Why would we ever do this...?

#56 CobaltBlue

CobaltBlue

    The Outlier

  • Members
  • 10,371 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royal Palm Beach, FL
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hold 'Em, Crazy Pineapple, 2-7 TD

Posted 09 November 2013 - 09:23 PM

View PostNickCave, on 09 November 2013 - 12:25 AM, said:

Why would we ever do this...?

View PostThe Machine, on 07 November 2013 - 12:15 PM, said:

It's an interesting idea for a team like the Red Sox playing in a NL park when they weren't planning on playing Ortiz in the field.


#57 The Machine

The Machine

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 622 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 11 November 2013 - 08:13 AM

View PostCobaltBlue, on 09 November 2013 - 09:23 PM, said:


That's a small subset though. I'm only saying that you would do that if Ortiz had a scheduled day off and the Sox weren't even going to use him to pinch hit. I don't really know how often that happens. I've heard that managers will tell guys that they won't pinch hit because the day off is a day off mentally as much as physically and knowing you'll probably pinch hit in a big spot later would keep your mind focused the whole time (theoretically). I wonder if the manager would stick to it though if it was the bottom of the 9th, down 2, bases loaded...




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users