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Navybuttons Thoughts On Baseball


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#1 navybuttons

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 07:45 AM

To The_Poster_NickCave:

Dear Sir:

I feel shitty about the way things went between us. I was in so many ways responsible and for those ways I apologize. You are clearly the most talented baseball player on FCP and it would be my honor if I could dedicate this thread to you. I have a lot of thoughts about baseball, but very very little experience. Even more devine is that you have so much pitching experience and that's where most of my thoughts are dedicated.

May I throw you pitches and you can tell me whether or not you think my ideas would work?

If you prefer I **** off state it directly and I will never post in the baseball forum again.

If you wanna break brains with me start with this situation:
Bottom of the 9th in game 7 of the world series. No one on. The best pitcher ever (or, more accurately, the most interesting) considers throwing a "no-pitch." A "no-pitch" is going through the wind up and delivery but leaving the ball in the mitt. The pitcher is definitely capable of throwing the no-pitch as many times as he thinks it will take to get the batter off his timing.

Thoughts?

luv-navybu
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#2 The Machine

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 07:58 AM

I'm glad you posted this because it made me go back into that Diamonds thread that doesn't make any sense.

Anyway, there are rules against what you are suggesting.

#3 BigDMcGee

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 08:16 AM

Yea, balking. But if no onw is on, whats the penalty? Ive seen guys eject during windup with no one on but never throw the ' no ball'
"We are only wise in knowing that we know nothing"
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#4 Essay21

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 08:25 AM

A balk with no one in base counts as a "ball" making te count 1-0. Four times in a row and te runners on first. I believe.

#5 The Machine

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 08:28 AM

If it happens one time, there is no penalty. If it's done repeatedly, the pitcher can be ejected from the game.

#6 navybuttons

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 09:29 AM

I read the rules as it's a ball unless it results in a walk

And if I understand correctly there's times where you can be ahead in the count and really don't mind giving up a ball or two.

And it may be enough for the batter to know that it's a situation in which you like to make such a move.
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#7 navybuttons

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 09:32 AM

Right handed pitcher can throw the ball underhand behind him as a pick-off move to first.

Thoughts?
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#8 Essay21

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 09:39 AM

Legal, but not effective.

#9 navybuttons

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 09:49 AM

Try harder imo
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#10 The Machine

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:14 AM

The pick-off move idea isn't interesting to me. The surprise factor is never going to be enough to cancel out how much longer it would take for the ball to get there.


View Postnavybuttons, on 30 October 2013 - 09:29 AM, said:

And if I understand correctly there's times where you can be ahead in the count and really don't mind giving up a ball or two.

And it may be enough for the batter to know that it's a situation in which you like to make such a move.

You don't mind giving up a ball generally means you are throwing a pitch out of the zone that isn't really hittable, but you're hoping the batter swings at it anyway.

I don't see how the no-pitch would upset the batter's timing. He never has to consider that you might do it because there is no adverse result to him with you doing it. And you can only do it that one time; repeat offenses will be penalized more strictly.

#11 navybuttons

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:42 AM

View PostThe Machine, on 30 October 2013 - 10:14 AM, said:

The pick-off move idea isn't interesting to me.

Not yet at least, but let's start here:

how effective is any pick-off attempt? i'd start by arguing 2 things:

1) having 2 pick off moves makes each slightly more effective.
2) it is exceptionally easy to discredit your ability to do truly amazing things. throwing a ball in such a manner with lots of speed doesn't strike me as the greatest feat of physical human ability.

View PostThe Machine, on 30 October 2013 - 10:14 AM, said:

I don't see how the no-pitch would upset the batter's timing.

This is something worth saying.

I'm far from arguing that a no-pitch alone is gunna be your shot to the bigs.

And maybe it's total garbage and complete bush league, but i have an incredibly hard time yet believing that it would never psyche someone out. like in football where they call a timeout right before the snap. if a decent enough player said that it would never upset someone's timing or snap someone's focus then i'd willingly abandon it.
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#12 BigDMcGee

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:45 AM

If you do the no ball trick, make sure you aim right for their face, maybe you get a flinch, and you can mad dog them after the pitch.
"We are only wise in knowing that we know nothing"
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"Dust. Wind. Dude."
-Ted Theodore Logan

"I'm a basketball player and a businessman, not a Thundercat,"
-Lebron James

#13 The Machine

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:50 AM

View Postnavybuttons, on 30 October 2013 - 10:42 AM, said:

like in football where they call a timeout right before the snap.

This has actually been proven to be ineffective. For whatever it's worth.

I think there is something to be said for trying to disrupt the batter's focus. I think that's a better way to put it than disrupting his timing. But if all we care about is focus, the pitcher could also just turn around, drop his pants, and moon the batter to the same effect.

#14 navybuttons

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 11:17 AM

View PostThe Machine, on 30 October 2013 - 10:50 AM, said:

For whatever it's worth.

I think it's definitely worth something. I think shows that at the highest levels it's extremely difficult to rattle competitors.

Having not played much baseball I'm not overly familiar with in-game pitcher/batter dynamics. I imagine that imposing your will on the other is extremely important. Disrupting focus would probably go miles in this regard. Especially since there's going to be opponents who are generally weaker minded.

What would you say to having the most rediculously goofy wind-up? Who's the idiot, the spazz on the mound or the guy who can't ever hit him?
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#15 The Machine

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 11:26 AM

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#16 The Machine

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 11:28 AM

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#17 navybuttons

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 11:39 AM

The first was 2/10 of what I was imagining.

The second is 11/10.

I don't wanna start pitching without NC here.

But I don't mind getting into managing. Guess: Having a manager who was a fastball pitcher is the nuts. Having a manager who was a first-baseman is the nut low.

Thoughts?
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#18 timwakefield

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 01:12 PM

Posted Image


"I use my single windup, my double windup, my triple windup, my hesitation windup, my no windup. I also use my step-n-pitch-it, my submariner, my sidearmer, and my bat dodger. Man's got to do what he's got to do." - Satchel Paige
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#19 NickCave

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:01 PM

View Postnavybuttons, on 30 October 2013 - 07:45 AM, said:

To The_Poster_NickCave:

Dear Sir:

I feel shitty about the way things went between us. I was in so many ways responsible and for those ways I apologize. You are clearly the most talented baseball player on FCP and it would be my honor if I could dedicate this thread to you. I have a lot of thoughts about baseball, but very very little experience. Even more devine is that you have so much pitching experience and that's where most of my thoughts are dedicated.

May I throw you pitches and you can tell me whether or not you think my ideas would work?

If you prefer I **** off state it directly and I will never post in the baseball forum again.

If you wanna break brains with me start with this situation:
Bottom of the 9th in game 7 of the world series. No one on. The best pitcher ever (or, more accurately, the most interesting) considers throwing a "no-pitch." A "no-pitch" is going through the wind up and delivery but leaving the ball in the mitt. The pitcher is definitely capable of throwing the no-pitch as many times as he thinks it will take to get the batter off his timing.

Thoughts?

luv-navybu

WIthout reading any other posts.

First of all, most my pitching experience was limited to, "Hmmm, this guy is pretty terrible, let's see what happens if I throw a FASTBALL. Okay, well maybe he has TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE." Maybe 10 starts in my entire life did I ever have to really concern myself with things like sequencing, eye-level, or anything more important than "I throw an easy 88 with movement let's just get this over with."

That being said, I've spent much of my adult life thinking about baseball, and I actually have a real answer to this question, despite the fact that it's silly. Depending on the circumstances, a no pitch with the bases empty (heretofore a NOPE) is either no pitch, or more likely a ball. For the sake of argument, let's say it always results in a ball.

Luckily, we have access to some pretty decent numbers regarding the value of different counts. I don't have them on hand right now, but I can remember about what each pitch is worth. At the beginning of each PA, a random hitter is worth, in a vaccuum against a random pitcher, about .145 runs. (For reference, I am using AL numbers. I never did any of this for the NL because **** that.)

0-0 .145
1-0 .185
0-1 .100

Basically, by giving your opponent a 1-0 count, you increase the opposing team's run expectancy (RE) by .04. If you're better than average, the damage is even worse. If you're worse than average, it's mitigated somewhat. So by NOPEing, you're giving the other side .04 runs. Could it ever possibly be worth it?

No. A phrase like "disrupt his timing" is misleading. Hitters don't "time" pitchers, in the sense that they have a rhythm that can be disturbed. Instead, hitters make basic assumptions about what pitch they can expect to see using information about count, tendency, base/out state, inning, score, etc, and devise a strategy. Hitting is hard precisely because there are so many things a pitcher can show you, all from the same release point, at any given time. For example:

Posted Image

So, out of necessity, hitters start with the ball/strike state, and use that to determine the best approach. So, if the account is 3-0, the pitcher is very motivated to throw a strike, and the stakes for the at-bat are high. Fastballs are the easiest pitch to throw for strikes. Therefore, it's probably going to be a fastball. Conversely, the stakes for the hitter are low. If he guesses wrong, the worst case scenario is another great (3-1) hitter's count. So, given a 3-0 count, the hitter will narrow his focus to a single pitch (fastball) located in a place ("one pitch, one spot"). If the pitch is there, he'll unleash hell. If it is not, he'll do nothing.

Hitters, for the most part, have to be defensive when the count is not in their favor, and picky/aggressive when it is. A pitcher's advantage is the number of options he has (location, speed, break: see GIF above) The more in the hitter's favor the count is, the more he can narrow the pitcher's options, which means's he's more likely to get something he expects, which means he's more likely to cause serious damage.

These, for the most part, are the hitter's concerns. If a pitcher simply NOPES, it affects him in no way, because there is no consequence to his guessing wrong. "I"m looking fastball away, specifically high and away. This is a pitch I can hit hard. If I get fastball low-and-away or down the middle, I'll adjust. Anything off-speed or middle in is a no go. Oh... the pitcher fell over and glared at me. Okay, well, now it's 1-0, so..."

The pitcher is better off doing something that will force the hitter (or other hitters!) to consider the event in the future, because that is the crux of the hitter/pitcher matchup. Bust a guy inside, throw him a 0-0 slider in the dirt, start him off with a changeup and scream like a girl. Whatever. Those things might feature into the hitter/pitcher matchup. Just randomly doing nothing has zero impact.

#20 NickCave

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:13 PM

View Postnavybuttons, on 30 October 2013 - 10:42 AM, said:

i have an incredibly hard time yet believing that it would never psyche someone out. like in football where they call a timeout right before the snap. if a decent enough player said that it would never upset someone's timing or snap someone's focus then i'd willingly abandon it.

I don't think icing the kicker works. There are a number of statistical profiles, many of which leave something to be desired, that address the issue, and the general consensus is that it has no effect. It really depends on what you control for, and then the issue becomes sample size, but there's no good statistical evidence that suggests icing the kicker has any tangible impact. I would recommend Moskowitz/Werthheim, but they've had some serious methodological issues (and some serious bonehead dum dum mistakes) pop up in their work before, so I don't want anyone to consider the issue closed.




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