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Call This?


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#1 freefrog99

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Posted 12 August 2013 - 01:44 PM

I am just wondering if i should call this. I was dealt 6 6 in bb in the 5 5 cash game. Utg+1 raise to 20. Mid position call and dealer pops it to 80. Sb folds. Dealer has around 600. Utg and mid has around 800. I cover all of them i have 900.

#2 StormDeal

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Posted 12 August 2013 - 04:39 PM

Simple answer NO. Your 6 6 hand's main value is flopping a set. You will do this approximately 1 out of 11 times. The rule of thumb that I read is that you need the raise to be 10X or more the smaller stack between you and your opponent for it to be mathematically sound. This is when you hold small pocket pairs say 88 - 22.

In this case the raise is 80 and your opponent has 600 left so the payoff would not be enough. If you and your opponent had stacks over 1000 this would be a better play. I have used this rule as a guide and have done pretty well with it. I know nothing about the guy who repopped it to 80. If the guy is a habitual reraising dealer button machine I may go over the top and go all in. Generally speaking i am folding here and waiting for a better spot

#3 freefrog99

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Posted 12 August 2013 - 09:04 PM

Yeah storm but the flop comes k 6 3 with 2 diamonds and everybody start betting and reraising. So kinda regret not calling it preflop.

#4 gadjet

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Posted 13 August 2013 - 08:08 AM

View PostStormDeal, on 12 August 2013 - 04:39 PM, said:

Simple answer NO. Your 6 6 hand's main value is flopping a set. You will do this approximately 1 out of 11 times.

The odds of flopping a set or better is 11.75% not 1 out of 11 times.

While the quick internet answer is no, mainly because:
1. The odds on set against the depth of his stack not quite laying enough.
2. The door is still open behind you for the initial raiser and a caller.

The real answer is that it depends on the game texture. In some games there are spots where I like a flat call here... only if I think the chances are high of it being an anchor situation. In most cases games are better than this and calling 80 should be the wrong play. There are also games (or spots) where I think a 4 bet (not allin) is the correct play.

Overall It's a fold most times but it really depends on the game, and the players that are leading the action on the hand.

Quote

If the guy is a habitual reraising dealer button machine I may go over the top and go all in.
Going allin here is a pretty terrible play imo.
"People can make up statistics to prove anything, 73% of people know that!" - Homer Simpson

#5 StormDeal

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Posted 13 August 2013 - 11:19 AM

Gadjet- Your right on the Set odds. I was just giving an approximate. As far as the 4 bet. I hate that play with 6 6. If your opponent just calls your raise, most likely the flop will miss you and probably have 2 over cards. Example if the flop comes Qh 8h 2d. What do you do next?

Again i want to stress 90 % of the time I am folding to the 3 bet. But If I have a strong suspicion my opponent is weak or may fold, I am putting it all in. Here in Michigan we dont have a whole lot of 3 and 4 bets in cash games, only in tournaments.

#6 gadjet

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Posted 13 August 2013 - 12:07 PM

View PostStormDeal, on 13 August 2013 - 11:19 AM, said:

Gadjet- Your right on the Set odds. I was just giving an approximate.
Your entire first post was trying to give odds to explain how your decision making is mathematically sound. Probably not good to mix the two.

Also the range of 88-22 that you offered suggests that 9's and 10's are significantly different than OP's 6's in this situation.

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As far as the 4 bet. I hate that play with 6 6. If your opponent just calls your raise, most likely the flop will miss you and probably have 2 over cards. Example if the flop comes Qh 8h 2d. What do you do next?

You are considering the game from your own perspective... it is time for you to move to level two... I have 4 bet preflop, my oppenent by flat calling is either setting a trap with AA or KK, or is scared that I have the hand that I am repping...

I absorb as much info from the opponents decision making in flat calling an extra 180 preflop, and assume that AQ, QQ or pocket 8's are the only hands that he's going to call a CBet with (not including trapping with AA KK), which gives me an extra opportunity for fold equity.... this is only going on the hypothetical flop of Q82... feel free to throw out whatever scenarios you like... there isn't a flop I don't like in this situation.

All scenarios, because I haven't donk shoved, I give myself an opportunity to make a post flop decision and find fold equity (or value.)
Unless I pick up a specific tell or info, I am cbetting 100% of flops that are flat called pre. I expect to win the $420ish pot the vast majority of times in a $5 $5 game.
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#7 StormDeal

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Posted 13 August 2013 - 12:36 PM

I was off a few percentage points on my explanation, but I think the rationale is still there. I like your reasoning on this hand and I will definitely put it in my memory bank. Basically I think we both agree in Most situations you should just fold the hand preflop. This will be my last post and I see why not many people post anymore.

#8 answer20

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 10:44 AM

Comes down to the table dynamic for sure ... You had the original (early position raiser) and another caller (less worried about) behind your cold call of a 3-bet. If either of these players would 'most' likely 4-bet this with a large portion of their opening/PF range then you are buring up money and will end up folding PF.

The focus on set flopping odds here is a bit skewed IMO. You flop a set about once every 9 pocket pairs. In this hand ... at this table ... with these players ... would you get paid off when you actually do hit a set. Is either the B or UTG+ a nit with a narrow range of hands that wont pay you off if the board misses them ... or even if the board is coordinated and they have an overpair. Are we EVER getting 9 to 1 to set mine, no. A set is an implied odds hand and you need to consider how the rest of the money you need to make when you make your hand will get into the pot. If it is unlikely that the money will go in, then you are either calling to steal the pot somehow or mucking since this is a -EV play ... in this situation.

On 'another' hand .. are YOU good enough to fold your set if you play this against a NIT on B/UTG and they play their hand like KK? This is another reason to not even get involved in this hand against the 'right' type of player who opens or 3-bets. GL




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