Posted 12 August 2013 - 01:44 PM
Posted 12 August 2013 - 04:39 PM
In this case the raise is 80 and your opponent has 600 left so the payoff would not be enough. If you and your opponent had stacks over 1000 this would be a better play. I have used this rule as a guide and have done pretty well with it. I know nothing about the guy who repopped it to 80. If the guy is a habitual reraising dealer button machine I may go over the top and go all in. Generally speaking i am folding here and waiting for a better spot
Posted 12 August 2013 - 09:04 PM
Posted 13 August 2013 - 08:08 AM
The odds of flopping a set or better is 11.75% not 1 out of 11 times.
While the quick internet answer is no, mainly because:
1. The odds on set against the depth of his stack not quite laying enough.
2. The door is still open behind you for the initial raiser and a caller.
The real answer is that it depends on the game texture. In some games there are spots where I like a flat call here... only if I think the chances are high of it being an anchor situation. In most cases games are better than this and calling 80 should be the wrong play. There are also games (or spots) where I think a 4 bet (not allin) is the correct play.
Overall It's a fold most times but it really depends on the game, and the players that are leading the action on the hand.
Posted 13 August 2013 - 11:19 AM
Again i want to stress 90 % of the time I am folding to the 3 bet. But If I have a strong suspicion my opponent is weak or may fold, I am putting it all in. Here in Michigan we dont have a whole lot of 3 and 4 bets in cash games, only in tournaments.
Posted 13 August 2013 - 12:07 PM
Also the range of 88-22 that you offered suggests that 9's and 10's are significantly different than OP's 6's in this situation.
You are considering the game from your own perspective... it is time for you to move to level two... I have 4 bet preflop, my oppenent by flat calling is either setting a trap with AA or KK, or is scared that I have the hand that I am repping...
I absorb as much info from the opponents decision making in flat calling an extra 180 preflop, and assume that AQ, QQ or pocket 8's are the only hands that he's going to call a CBet with (not including trapping with AA KK), which gives me an extra opportunity for fold equity.... this is only going on the hypothetical flop of Q82... feel free to throw out whatever scenarios you like... there isn't a flop I don't like in this situation.
All scenarios, because I haven't donk shoved, I give myself an opportunity to make a post flop decision and find fold equity (or value.)
Unless I pick up a specific tell or info, I am cbetting 100% of flops that are flat called pre. I expect to win the $420ish pot the vast majority of times in a $5 $5 game.
Posted 13 August 2013 - 12:36 PM
Posted 06 November 2013 - 10:44 AM
The focus on set flopping odds here is a bit skewed IMO. You flop a set about once every 9 pocket pairs. In this hand ... at this table ... with these players ... would you get paid off when you actually do hit a set. Is either the B or UTG+ a nit with a narrow range of hands that wont pay you off if the board misses them ... or even if the board is coordinated and they have an overpair. Are we EVER getting 9 to 1 to set mine, no. A set is an implied odds hand and you need to consider how the rest of the money you need to make when you make your hand will get into the pot. If it is unlikely that the money will go in, then you are either calling to steal the pot somehow or mucking since this is a -EV play ... in this situation.
On 'another' hand .. are YOU good enough to fold your set if you play this against a NIT on B/UTG and they play their hand like KK? This is another reason to not even get involved in this hand against the 'right' type of player who opens or 3-bets. GL
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