Jump to content


Top-Top Reflections (Sh) (5/10)


  • Please log in to reply
25 replies to this topic

#1 CobaltBlue

CobaltBlue

    The Outlier

  • Members
  • 10,379 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royal Palm Beach, FL
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hold 'Em, Crazy Pineapple, 2-7 TD

Posted 17 January 2013 - 01:15 AM

Been a long while since I posted strat hands, but thought a couple of recent ones were interesting...

Bovada 5/10 NLHE (6-handed)

Cobalt $1442
BB $1369

Cobalt is UTG w/ :ad :kh. We've been playing 28/23/2.9 and should have a somewhat TAG image. BB is 30/20/2 w/ 6% 3-bet over 81 hands. He seems slightly competent to slightly fishy.

Pre-flop:
Cobalt raises to $30, 4 folds, BB calls

Flop ($65): :jh :7h :7s (2 players)
BB checks, Cobalt bets $40, BB raises to $100, Cobalt calls

Turn ($265): :ah (2 players)
BB bets $152.50, Cobalt calls

River ($570): :9s (2 players)
BB bets $375, Cobalt ?


After a bit of discussion, I'll provide my thoughts.

#2 answer20

answer20

    Poker Forum Regular

  • Members
  • 114 posts
  • Favorite Poker Game:NL Hold'em

Posted 17 January 2013 - 06:54 AM

Another tough hand. Pretty 'standard' play on both Flop and Turn especially with a nut flush draw. BB shows no fear here with a raise and 2 lead-outs, obv not afraid of the flush or hit one with his semi-bluff on Flop. Was your $30 pre-Flop standard of a bit larger/smaller? BB could very easily smooth call with AJ/A7, connectors with a 7 or hearts pre-Flop .. probably would have raised pre-Flop with AK/AQ/JJ? He has to know you are big Ace/paint/pair opening from UTG, yes?

I dont really know what your xx/xx/x numbers mean so that hurts me with both of your posts but would like to know.

Can he c/r Flop (with a not AJ) weaker J, sure, and was gutsy enough to bet out on Turn to see if you had an Ace, ok, maybe. But the lead out on the River tends to make me think he put us on a flush draw or he is not worried about our Ace.

Our hand looks pretty and I think still had potential going to the River, but I think this is another fold.

#3 gadjet

gadjet

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 878 posts
  • Location:Canada

Posted 17 January 2013 - 06:59 AM

Flat the river.

Curious if there's room for raising the turn here? Maybe you're flatting for pot control, cause if he rejams you think you have to call or something... to me it depends on your intentions on the turn for how the river plays out but you're flat on the turn forces a call on the river too.

Flop Check-Raising on the flush draw isn't out of the question but unlikely. So the story he's telling is a 7, with the turn bet enough of a problem with his story to call the river. I don't see value in raising the river, but river value is a problem with my game so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a case for it.

Hands in his range that win:
- any 7 specifically aware of A7 because of his betsize drop on the turn (I would try and think back here of any noticeable betsizing tells on bet to pot ratio... )
- check raising with flush draw (probably with straight draw included because we know he doesn't have Ah or Kh in his hand.)
- AJ

Hands in his range that lose:
- Jx

Unfortunately Jx is the most likely in my mind without more information on his play and betting.
Again I like to raise the turn to control the hand and bet on the river/for info... very likely taking him off of value betting a bunch of hands that you have beat... but opening the door to losing your stack instead of half your stack.
"People can make up statistics to prove anything, 73% of people know that!" - Homer Simpson

#4 answer20

answer20

    Poker Forum Regular

  • Members
  • 114 posts
  • Favorite Poker Game:NL Hold'em

Posted 17 January 2013 - 07:03 AM

Taking a look at the bet sizing now leads me down a path as well. He pot bets the Flop ... telling us he has a J or 7, maybe semi-bluff flush draw but he really doesnt want us to call. Now as soon as the Ah comes out he goes to value town with 60% pot bets on Turn and River. This shows he is now telling us he comfortable with his holdings. Still leads me to a fold ... just depends on how good of a story teller you think he is or if you think he really has the goods.

#5 CobaltBlue

CobaltBlue

    The Outlier

  • Members
  • 10,379 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royal Palm Beach, FL
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hold 'Em, Crazy Pineapple, 2-7 TD

Posted 19 January 2013 - 08:44 PM

View Postanswer20, on 17 January 2013 - 06:54 AM, said:

Another tough hand. Pretty 'standard' play on both Flop and Turn especially with a nut flush draw. BB shows no fear here with a raise and 2 lead-outs, obv not afraid of the flush or hit one with his semi-bluff on Flop. Was your $30 pre-Flop standard of a bit larger/smaller? BB could very easily smooth call with AJ/A7, connectors with a 7 or hearts pre-Flop .. probably would have raised pre-Flop with AK/AQ/JJ? He has to know you are big Ace/paint/pair opening from UTG, yes?

I dont really know what your xx/xx/x numbers mean so that hurts me with both of your posts but would like to know.
$30 is my standard open from most positions in this game. I think I can be wider than ace/paint/pair pre, though that probably makes up a majority of my range. I do think he probably would've 3-bet AK/JJ pre-flop some, though not every time. I think he would've been likely to call with AQ pre. I don't think J7 is often in his pre-flop range, and I think his 7x hands are mostly limited to 77/A7s/97s/87s/76s. Maybe 75s.

xx/xx/x is the format for three of the more common heads-up display stats. VPIP/PFR/AF. VPIP is voluntary-put-in percentage (roughly how many hands the person is playing to a flop). PFR is pre-flop raise percentage (how often they're raising pre-flop). AF is aggression factor. It's roughly a number that tries to quantify how often someone takes an aggressive action (betting/raising) versus how often they take a passive one (checking/calling/folding). Below 1 tends to be quite passive. Around a 2-3 is fairly standard TAG. Maniacs get higher than that. It's not a number that converges quickly though, so I can certainly have spans of 100 hands where I'm below 1 or above 5.

View Postgadjet, on 17 January 2013 - 06:59 AM, said:

Curious if there's room for raising the turn here? Maybe you're flatting for pot control, cause if he rejams you think you have to call or something... to me it depends on your intentions on the turn for how the river plays out but you're flat on the turn forces a call on the river too.

Flop Check-Raising on the flush draw isn't out of the question but unlikely. So the story he's telling is a 7, with the turn bet enough of a problem with his story to call the river. I don't see value in raising the river, but river value is a problem with my game so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a case for it.

Hands in his range that win:
- any 7 specifically aware of A7 because of his betsize drop on the turn (I would try and think back here of any noticeable betsizing tells on bet to pot ratio... )
- check raising with flush draw (probably with straight draw included because we know he doesn't have Ah or Kh in his hand.)
- AJ

Hands in his range that lose:
- Jx

Unfortunately Jx is the most likely in my mind without more information on his play and betting.
Again I like to raise the turn to control the hand and bet on the river/for info... very likely taking him off of value betting a bunch of hands that you have beat... but opening the door to losing your stack instead of half your stack.
There's really not too much value to raising the turn here. He's probably not calling with worse or folding better. We're likely going to be priced into calling a shove with our equity if we raise...which isn't fun considering his range at that point. Essentially, would rather call and see how the river develops. I think his range on the flop for c/ring is going to be decently wide...good jacks, 7x, gut-shots, flush draws, some pairs, and some air. Also, if we're raising the river, it wouldn't be for value...it'd be a bluff.

#6 gadjet

gadjet

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 878 posts
  • Location:Canada

Posted 20 January 2013 - 10:33 AM

View PostCobaltBlue, on 19 January 2013 - 08:44 PM, said:

There's really not too much value to raising the turn here. He's probably not calling with worse or folding better. We're likely going to be priced into calling a shove with our equity if we raise...which isn't fun considering his range at that point. Essentially, would rather call and see how the river develops. I think his range on the flop for c/ring is going to be decently wide...good jacks, 7x, gut-shots, flush draws, some pairs, and some air. Also, if we're raising the river, it wouldn't be for value...it'd be a bluff.

For me the value to raising the turn is for info and pot control because you have position. You still have the nut flush draw which if a heart comes I would be playing for full value and sad to see a boat. Raising the turn to $400 regains control of the hand and induces a river check for a ton of the hands that are in BB's range... a check into you on the river is great, if you hit the heart you can fire for value, or you can check it down for $127.50 less than the $527.50 you played for post turn.

Big downside obviously is that it opens the door on the turn for him to reshove... but does a boat reshove here?
"People can make up statistics to prove anything, 73% of people know that!" - Homer Simpson

#7 answer20

answer20

    Poker Forum Regular

  • Members
  • 114 posts
  • Favorite Poker Game:NL Hold'em

Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:46 AM

Good reasons to both flat and raise on Turn here. Nothing wrong with mixing up your play.

Calling Turn allows us to see if we can flush out 'cheap' and also opponent can fire 3rd bullet if bluffing. We have some showdown value if we choose to call this River bet, but I think I am still inclined to fold to this size of bet. He has to know we have something but is willing to put money in there to see it. The obvious 'bad' result here is that we hit the flush and don't get any more money out of him while being slightly out priced to actually make the call.

Raising the Turn certainly doesn't put our hand face up with so much out there, so it does have some merit. I don't think we are in a position to have to call a shove either. A raise to $375 or $400 does save you money if you can check down this River, but you don't get to see it (and make a better hand) if you get shoved back on. I agree that a shove doesn't come from a made full house, but it very well could come from a 7x hand that doesn't think you made a flush on the Turn.

I probably still lean towrds flatting the Turn and folding the River but can't argue strongly against any of the other action we have proposed either.

#8 CobaltBlue

CobaltBlue

    The Outlier

  • Members
  • 10,379 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royal Palm Beach, FL
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hold 'Em, Crazy Pineapple, 2-7 TD

Posted 22 January 2013 - 07:43 PM

One thing that I actually am proposing is jamming the river.

#9 gadjet

gadjet

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 878 posts
  • Location:Canada

Posted 22 January 2013 - 09:45 PM

Trying to find it, but I'm having trouble finding why the river.

BB would have $711.50, pot would be $2026.50.

I'll play as BB
The 9 is basically a blank... 8 10 isn't in the picture here and if you have that I'm paying you off 100% of the time... 99 is the same... those two hands would be sick beats but just not options to consider.
79 is the only hand that is reasonably to assume you smashing on the river, so it is in the mix.

Otherwise A7, JJ or 77 are the hands I think you're repping on a total slowplay. I'd think back to what I've seen from you and how you'd played nut hands but that's not a factor in this spot lol... I also try and see what you've been 3 betting preflop ... you 3 bet UTG here... so AA should be considered.

I call with any 7, I call with any A, I call with AJ, I call with a flush.
I fold anything else.

Things to consider
I tend to overpay shoves.

I guess for me, I don't think a river jam pushes BB off of a lot of hands that have you beat, and it doesn't get a call from a ton of hands that you have beat? You have a strong enough hand for showdown here, I don't have much recent experience with 5/10 6 max NLHE online, so I don't have a strong feel for all the spots for FE/Shoving work etc.

anyways enough rambling...

I'd like to hear your case for jamming the river here...
"People can make up statistics to prove anything, 73% of people know that!" - Homer Simpson

#10 CobaltBlue

CobaltBlue

    The Outlier

  • Members
  • 10,379 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royal Palm Beach, FL
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hold 'Em, Crazy Pineapple, 2-7 TD

Posted 23 January 2013 - 12:25 AM

I'd be repping AA/JJ/A7s/77...which are more likely hands for me than for him. I'd play all of them that way a lot of the time. It's possible that I could also play the K-high flush draw in this manner. I can't think of too many bluffs where I'd take this line...therefore, I'm not sure that the opponent should be calling with less than a boat. I have a blocker with the ace to some boats, and I have the Kh as a blocker to the nut flush.

As I said, I wouldn't be shoving for value...probably never getting called by worse. I just felt at the time that opponent has to consider folding AJ/7x/unlikely straight/low flushes.

#11 gadjet

gadjet

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 878 posts
  • Location:Canada

Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:32 AM

A shove really polarizes your range into 1 of 4 premiums (5 if we include 7 9), or a bluff... if I have an A 7 or AJ in my hand I believe at least 1 of those 4 hands even less... in your favour if I'm looking to catch a bluff the runout doesn't look like a bluff... most cases a bluff involves a missed flopped draw, or leading from wire to wire...

If you're bluffing here, there's no missed draws, which means you started the hand with your head down to win the pot but still gave me control for 2 streets which is a crazy strong bluff...

Overall you're right in that it's a good spot to rep a strong hand, what I don't like is you can only rep 4 hands... and from BB's action you may need one of those 4 hands to win and even more the BB's hand might make 2 of those hands impossible... I'd prefer to make the play on boards that connect stronger with more ways to win, so that the range I have to put you on is much wider... that said your hand looks either very strong of a bluff... who knows whether I would've called cause I know you're on AK.

Interesting spot though. My vote is still turn action...
"People can make up statistics to prove anything, 73% of people know that!" - Homer Simpson

#12 answer20

answer20

    Poker Forum Regular

  • Members
  • 114 posts
  • Favorite Poker Game:NL Hold'em

Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:03 AM

Agreed a River shove is a possible play ... and also agree that we have a very narrow range of hands we 'rep' with a shove, but could very well be up against one of those hands in this case. I don't see too many wins by calling this River bet so it might be better to shove if you think that will get you more pots in the long run. Bet sizing is still the key in this hand for me. We just need to figure out how good a story teller he is compared to what his holdings might be.

#13 CobaltBlue

CobaltBlue

    The Outlier

  • Members
  • 10,379 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royal Palm Beach, FL
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hold 'Em, Crazy Pineapple, 2-7 TD

Posted 23 January 2013 - 11:45 PM

The only hand I can think of where I'd bluff-shove the river is essentially the hand that I have...okay...maybe KJ w/ Kh...but I might not even do that all of the time.

Here the plausible hands in my range:
AdKh,AcKh,AsKh,KhJc,KhJs,KhJd
7c7d,JsJc,JsJd,JdJs,AsAc,AsAd,AcAd,9c7c,9d7d,KhQh,KhTh

So I guess it boils down to weighting at that point...if he doesn't have a boat, there are 6 hands he beats and 11 that he doesn't. He'd have to call $709 to win $2029 at that point, so a bit over 2.8-1. He'd need 26% equity to make a call breakeven. If I'm shoving all of those hands above on the river, he's 37.5%. If we take out the KhJ hands (or assume I'm only shoving the bluffs half of the time), he's only 23%. I dunno...I guess he can make the call...but I think it'll be a very ambitious one.

My feeling on the river was that it was jam > fold > call. That said, it may be fold > jam > call. It could even be that they're all quite close.

#14 mtdesmoines

mtdesmoines

    Poker Forum Veteran

  • Members
  • 9,980 posts

Posted 25 January 2013 - 06:36 PM

I think simple calldown mode for turn and river is OK. It's too thin to do much else. Our hand has value.
Somewhere Jimmy Carter is smiling because he knows that he is no longer the worst President of the modern era

#15 CobaltBlue

CobaltBlue

    The Outlier

  • Members
  • 10,379 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royal Palm Beach, FL
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hold 'Em, Crazy Pineapple, 2-7 TD

Posted 11 February 2013 - 05:26 PM

I shoved. Villain tanked river and called with 5h4h.

#16 gadjet

gadjet

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 878 posts
  • Location:Canada

Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:41 PM

Great hand for discussion. thx gl... next time river the heart?
"People can make up statistics to prove anything, 73% of people know that!" - Homer Simpson

#17 Var1ance

Var1ance

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 42 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:The Felt
  • Interests:Making the leap from poker padawan to Jedi.
  • Favorite Poker Game:No limit hold em

Posted 10 June 2013 - 08:36 PM

Is folding on the re raise completely out of the question ? On the flop, I think its an overplay of ace king. That gets you in trouble. The small pre raise leaves the door open to A LOT of hands, pretty much any two suited connectors, 67/78 any two hearts, either way you're not in good shape. I just don't feel good with AK off with the pre flop raise. I understand its 6 handed and you can't open too much....Idk tbh I probably stop this hand at the flop.

#18 TrueAce13

TrueAce13

    FCP Resident Donk

  • Members
  • 4,853 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ohio
  • Favorite Poker Game:PLO NLHE

Posted 11 June 2013 - 11:40 AM

Folding the flop would be really bad and exploitable.
Pokerstars: TrueAce13 (Willard)
FT: TrueAce13
My First Poker Blog, please read and help me get better!

#19 Var1ance

Var1ance

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 42 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:The Felt
  • Interests:Making the leap from poker padawan to Jedi.
  • Favorite Poker Game:No limit hold em

Posted 11 June 2013 - 06:41 PM

I disagree but to each his own.

#20 CobaltBlue

CobaltBlue

    The Outlier

  • Members
  • 10,379 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royal Palm Beach, FL
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hold 'Em, Crazy Pineapple, 2-7 TD

Posted 17 June 2013 - 02:42 PM

View PostVar1ance, on 10 June 2013 - 08:36 PM, said:

Is folding on the re raise completely out of the question ? On the flop, I think its an overplay of ace king. That gets you in trouble. The small pre raise leaves the door open to A LOT of hands, pretty much any two suited connectors, 67/78 any two hearts, either way you're not in good shape. I just don't feel good with AK off with the pre flop raise. I understand its 6 handed and you can't open too much....Idk tbh I probably stop this hand at the flop.
Opening for 3x is pretty standard online.

Folding to the flop c/r isn't entirely unreasonable. I just wasn't giving villain too much credit here and thought he'd have to give me credit a decent bit. I do think you need to continue often with a hand like this - otherwise you risk being exploited - but folding some is okay too. If I'd not had the heart, I'd drop the hand most of the time.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users