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Icm And Decision Making


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#1 gadjet

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 02:50 PM

So I'm copying this from the Sunday thread where DD posted a question on a hand late in a tourney...

Quote

"Will you guys look at this hand from earlier at the FT and tell me what you think ICM wise with these two super shorties:

Winning Poker Network - 12,500/25,000 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 252,667.00
SB: 52,260.00
BB: 791,872.00
UTG: 1,160,043.00
UTG+1: 1,049,495.00
MP: 28,948.00
CO: 2,164,715.00

SB posts ante 2,500.00, BB posts ante 2,500.00, UTG posts ante 2,500.00, UTG+1 posts ante 2,500.00, MP posts ante 2,500.00, CO posts ante 2,500.00, Hero posts ante 2,500.00, SB posts SB 12,500.00, BB posts BB 25,000.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 55000.00) Hero has Qc Ks

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero ???

I don't see BB calling with much more than premiums he was good and tight, sb didn't matter much imo but with these guys so short is this a fold?"

Two guys responded with very cut and dry answers of it's close but it looks like a shove, and it made me wonder how people are using ICM and how closely it determines your shoving hands?
Personally I've always used ICM as a guideline more for calling spots then for shoving.

I find the many variables around the table especially at a Final Table play a way bigger role in my decisions than ICM.

I'd love to hear thoughts and explanations on interperetations of using ICM, when and how you use it and anything else.
"People can make up statistics to prove anything, 73% of people know that!" - Homer Simpson

#2 TrueAce13

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 06:22 PM

need to know pay out structure to be able to do an ICM calculator. It is a hella close spot tho, but I'd prolly jam
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#3 answer20

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 07:28 AM

I dont really know about ICM too much, but why risk 2 potential spots on the pay scale here when BOTH of the shortstacks need to double up twice to pass by your stack. Also what if the BB does have a hand ... you let the shortest stack move up 2 spots if you and the SB get knocked out.

If you shove and SB shoves and BB even thinks you are weak he can throw away 2BB to the SB and try to win 8BB from you in return ... a 6bb net profit.

If you shove and for some reason SB folds, unlikely, and BB shoves you could miss 2 spots of pay.

Wait for shortest to shove next 3 hands and then see what you need to do. I agree though, it is an enticing hand to work with in this spot.

#4 gadjet

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 10:55 AM

Here's the calc numbers for this hand specifically.

View PostCobaltBlue, on 16 January 2013 - 10:09 PM, said:

Okay...got this so far...

Posted Image
Posted Image

And here's the Payouts:
1 - 21,450
2 - 13,475
3 - 9,350
4 - 7,150
5 - 5,500
6 - 4,070
7 - 2,970

But I'm also interested in general thoughts on how/when and why we're using ICM to evaluate play/make decisions
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#5 HighwayStar

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 01:24 PM

View Postgadjet, on 17 January 2013 - 10:55 AM, said:

Here's the calc numbers for this hand specifically.



And here's the Payouts:
1 - 21,450
2 - 13,475
3 - 9,350
4 - 7,150
5 - 5,500
6 - 4,070
7 - 2,970

But I'm also interested in general thoughts on how/when and why we're using ICM to evaluate play/make decisions

It should almost always be a large part of your decision at a final table of an MTT. On SnG bubbles its an even bigger factor.
.

#6 ariolis30

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Posted 30 June 2013 - 03:03 PM

i been playing for years and i just learned this not too long ago ... sigh




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