Posted 27 July 2012 - 07:21 AM
Re donk: First off, at no point have I claimed the check/call on the flop was a "bad play", at least to my knowledge. I just think the check raise is better. And obviously, check/fold the turn is probably the best move. I'll get to the remaining stack size in a bit in response to answer20’s post. But first, to your points. I am not assuming anything when I c/r the flop as far as what the villain will do. I think it is fairly likely that the villain bet the flop pretty weak, but of course, there is the chance he is strong. The purpose of the c/r is to rule out that he is really strong, because if he were, he would in all likelihood shove over our c/r here. Result.. we get away from a bad spot losing 8K. Now, if he calls, here’s what happens. First off, I disagree with your assertion that a check on the turn would likely elicit another bet from AJ/AQ. If the villain were a maniac, then all bets are off and he could do anything. But all evidence suggests he is a straightforward player. Our c/r is going to make him think we are committed to the pot. There is very little chance he will bluff here. There is very little chance he will value bet anything less than A/K since we could have flopped lots of hands that have him beat and will call with big draws as well. There’s just no reason for him to bet a marginal hand here and doing so is a very risky play. So I think the c/r on the flop induces a ck/ck on the turn a large percentage of the time. This would have been even more the case if a club hit the turn because now he has to worry about us either already having a flush, or having even more outs on the river with a big club in our hand. So, as it stood, my feeling is, the villain will only bet when he is quite strong. So it just comes down to deciding whether chasing our flush draw is worth it. For 12K or whatever the villain is likely to bet here, I don’t think it is.I think the mistake, for lack of a better word, in your analysis, is you are playing this hand as if it is earlier in the tournament and we have lots of chips to play around with. In those situations, it’s alright (or at least more alright) to have a “let’s call and see what happens next” strategy. You can play small ball. You can go into turns and rivers not quite sure where you’re at because the risk of ruin, or consequences of you being wrong or unlucky are relatively small. In this situation, however, you can’t afford to allow the villain to control the pot and the action. There’s just too many ways they can cause you to lose a hand you might have won, or cause you to make a mistake which are both devastating results at this point in the tournament. The c/r obviously isn’t pure small ball and pot control, but I think it does clarify your opponents holdings to a great degree and it also is more likely to keep the pot small on the turn.Now, of course, the way this hand played out is a good example of why A10 suited is a hard hand to play in any situation, but with stacks this short especially. By putting in a standard pre-flop raise in an attempt to steal with this hand, you’re really hoping for a flushy flop. When you don’t get one, all sorts of bad things can happen. There’s a case to be made that a bigger raise, even perhaps an All-in pre-flop would have been better. Riskier, certainly, but less prone to mistakes after the flop J. In this case, you actually wouldn’t mind seeing 99 across the table… until the flop that is.Re: Answer20, as far as stack sizes are concerned… it obviously depends on the blind sizes, ante sizes and structure. I believe there are various schools of thought which typically settle around 10-15 BB being the shove/fold threshold. 20BB or 25BB are not quite there yet, but the thing is, a single hand played and lost pretty much puts you there. That’s why this is a precarious position to be in as well. In my analysis, the aggressive c/r on the flop could leave me with only ~15BB if I ran into big hand and had to fold, as opposed to the ~19BB I would be left with in a check/call/fold scenario. In my mind there’s not enough of a difference in these stack sized to warrant shying away from the more aggressive strategy.As to some of your other points… In my mind, the c/r doesn’t commit you to the pot, but it is intended to make your opponent think you are and play accordingly. The fact that several of you think you are committing to the pot makes me believe this supposition of what your opponent would think is right on.Also, a lead out on the flop is pretty standard, and is therefore not what I would consider a bad play. The problem with it here, at lease compared to other options, is that it opens the door for your opponent to put a lot of heat on you right away when you are holding a marginal hand. If the opponent shoves in the face of your c/r, you know you are beat, so a fold is easy. If the opponent shoves or puts in a big raise in the face of your standard lead out, you really have no idea what to do. Of course, a fold is likely the smartest choice, but it certainly isn’t an easy decision and you could be making a big mistake whatever you choose. It should be clear from my posts that I prefer to make easy decisions. A flop check makes the hand easier to play.As for your last question, I don’t see a tremendous amount of difference between 14BB or 20BB. A standard hand played where you think you are ahead, but are not sure, and therefore bet the flop/turn looking to check/call the river is going to cost you at least 10-15BB. That makes playing a hand this way when you only start out with 20-25BB really precarious.