HighwayStar, on 02 August 2012 - 01:49 PM, said:
I think in an overall poker strategy it is unnecessary. That doesn't mean it's not optimal with certain hands and against certain villains. Just not with AT pretty much ever. I don't think you encounter 1 opponent in 1000 where check raising AT on that flop is the best play. I was saying playing big draws and stronger 2 pair hands this way is potentially ok. AT does not fit in either of those.There are 2 big factors working against c/r AT here.1. We do a whole load of folding out worse, getting called by better. This is pretty much ABC poker strat for anyone with a clue about ranges. Try not to do either of these things.2. When we raised pre and c/r flop we have put in 10 bb of our initial 25. 40% of your stack is a LOT to put in and turn top pair decent kicker into a fold of some sort. If this is anywhere near a money bubble of any kind this is going to compound the bad decision in $ terms.I was thinking what stack sizes c/r AT might be best with and it is simply none. When you are much deeper I think c/c is always a better option once you check. You're ending up in many better situations with more playable stack/pot ratios when you do that.In this exact hand, yes the turn spot is awkward, but it's not always going to be. I think around 60% of the deck doesn't change your hand vs the board vs your opponent too much. On a turn card like this (and tbh, the rest of the deck) it's really not that bad. It's almost always going to be a close spot between fold and shove on the turn, either way we're not losing much. It's tough to say what is best on the flop. Personally b/c > c/c >>>b/f>>>>>>>>> rest. If you start c/f top pair decent kicker CO vs BTN you are regularly going to be accidentally exploited by all but the most passive of fish.Something I can be completely sure of....open shoving preflop is profitable but absolutely not optimal. R/x is always gonna net more. Open shoving is gonna net a really low amount of chips with a silly amount of variance.
As for open shoving, it is certainly a higher variance play. I only mention it because, out of position, there's so much going against us in this hand, particularly if we flop so mediocre, as we did. Most people in this thread have pretty much advocated some form of, let's put 6K into the pot and then fold on the turn when our opponent bets. While that may be safer and hold less variance, I don't know that it is a particualrly great alternative, long term. Of course, if the flop came A or 10 high with two diamonds, or some variation of that, then obviosly having a slower play pre-flop would have been better.regarding your two bullet points:1) In a vaccuum, I agree with you. But as I have made clear in my other posts, the c/r is not meant to be a value play (ie get value from worse hands), and its not really meant to be a straight bluff (though some better hands could fold here). Its meant to affect the action on the turn in a way that is beneficial for us. As I have mentioned, it is essentially a defensive bet. I believe we have besically come to a point where you guys, or most of you, do not think it will affect the play on the turn and I do. I don't know who is right or wrong in that respect, I guess it all depends on what sorts of players you typically play against and what your particular experience is.2) I'm a little dubious of b/c here for the same reasons I am dubious of c/c. You say there's nothing that could hit the turn that is really scary, and that might be true.. but there's nothing that can hit the turn that is really going to help us, unless we somehow make it to the river. Since we are out of position, you are once agan relying on your opponent to bet in just the right way (or not bet at all) on the turn so you can make an easy decision. I will say this, though, if you lead the flop and your opponent min raises, I think calling is ok because it puts you pretty much in the same position as you would have been with c/r. If the opponent min raised on a draw (as would be a typical play), they will probably not bet the turn, perhaps even if they hit it. There's your free card. If they have a big hand, they can bet the turn and you can then fold just like you would have had you c/r. I will add one thing here, though. c/r after a pre-flop raise could make the turn check confuse your opponent. Are you going for another check raise? Are you weak? What's gong on? Confusing your opponent is always a good thing, IMO. And since almost all of you think its a horrible play to c/r with A10 here, I assume you would definitely not put me on that kind of hand here. Disguising our hand also as benefits. If we b/c the flop (min raise in this case, as I don't think I am b/c much more), then I think our turn check looks a bit weaker than in the other scenario.Some more thoughts on your point.. 40% is a lot to put in with the c/r, and that's part of the point. I think that looks like we are committed, although in my mind we are not (I think you disagree here, but I don't know that its worth debating as that will largely depend on the structure, other stacks, what the money means, etc.) The thing you discount is that the alternative, which everyone seems to support, is to put 25% of your stack in and just hope for the best (in other words.. see what happens). Now I do realize that if our opponent shoves the flop on us, or catches something on the turn and shoves, then we lose that extra 15% of our stack when otherwise we would not have. But I think that is a small price to pay for knowing we are folding the worst hand when and if we do, and having a better shot at catching up from behind or getting to a showdwon with the best hand. Again, in my mind 19BB is not particualry different from 15BB from a remaining stack standpoint. They are both borderline shove/fold stack sizes and will play pretty much the same going forward.Now, as far as c/f the flop which I advocate above c/c, and perhaps c/r.. I don't know that this play is something that can be used against me. This particular situation doesn't come up too often, so I'm not sure what kind of databank people can have on me, even if I prefer it. And, like I have also said previously, I might make a completely different play when the stacks are deeper. However, the answer is simply to balance my play off with some c/r, or even c/c in similar situations in the future. After all, I have never said c/c is a horrible play. I just prefer others for the variety of reasons I stated in this thread.The hilarious thing about this thread is, I think we can see that anything you do on this flop, particularly if the first thing you do is check, is quite a gray area. I believe there are reasons for one decision being better than another, and other people feel the same way about their preferred line. However, I don't think any of us can say definitively that their play is the mathematically optimum choice since all of our arguments all center around what we feel certain players WOULD do on the turn, and that is definitely a murky area. I'm certain someone with some resources (yes, a super computer, Irsihguy) could actually do a mathematical analysis, making sure to account for various opponent predelictions and starting hands, but we certainly don't have access to something like that at this point in this debate.Maybe in your experience, players are perfectly willing to shut down on the turn unless they have a monster, and maybe in my experience, players are quite wiling to continue to lead the hand in position when you have shown not interest to do so. Having these sorts of disparate experiences mght make us come to different conclusions as to what the best play is for obvious reasons. I'm ok with that. I'm not sure why so many here are so strident in their beliefs to think they should not be ok with that. To be honest, that is more disturbing to me then the fact that a large number of you guys disagree with my logic and/or line of play. That has larger repercussions that go well beyond poker.