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How Bad Did I Play This Hand?


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#21 Ank

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 03:30 AM

I think this is one of those hands where you just dig it in a holeBy your analysis sounds like your abit tilty when the hand occurred due to bad beats from the villain which may have clouded your judgement through out the hand.Pre-flop calling in that spot is the worst thing to do in my view. There isn't enough information on the villain to assess the villain's hand range accurately, his hand is so polarized in that he can only have the nuts (AA) or nothing pre-flop, If you thought his hand range consisted of pocket pairs ranging from 88-AA and were planning on calling why not jam pre flop if you thought his hand range consisted of <10s?By jaming preflop we have decent 50% equity against 88-10s but if you assume 88-10s is in his range i can only imagine he could be doing this with a wider range possibly 66+ maybe even 22+ so you actually have a decent amount of equity to jam preflop against this range about 60% against his range in this spot assuming his only doing this with only pocket pairs 22+. but we are in terrible spot against his other 40%, 30% equity vs JJ-KK and virtually no equity vs AA. Basically in this spot if you were planning to go with your hand and thought your opponent had a marginal holding jam pre. pre-flop: Nice raise size.. but with AJs in this spot.. Personally id fold to the big re raise.. you can pick better spots to get your money in good.. especially in tournaments where our chips are so valuable we just can't afford to make speculative calls with large chunks of our stack, a high variance game will only get us so far in tournaments.Post-flop: Id still like a fold in this spot with 14bb remaining we still have enough bbs to play with to make the money and grind our stack back. With your analysis of the hand its pretty obvious from the physical tells and also his bet sizing he has AA and he can only have AA in this spot.. from what i concluded in your analysis the villain had been playing pretty standard through out the tournament and for him to make a move like this with anything less then AA is vertually impossible especially on the money bubble.Hope some of that stuff was benefitual for you :club:~Ank~

#22 akashenk

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 05:21 AM

thanks for your thoughts, Ank. Again, I agree the pre-flop call was foolish. My personal style is not to go all in in that pre-flop situation, so that never even occurred to me, though it would have been the better of two less than ideal options. The best play would obviously have been to fold.As for the post flop, I'm not sure i am in 100% agreement with you. The fellow had not been playing standard, solid poker, at least not in his run-up from seriously short-stacked to one of the chip leaders. He was playing some unconventional hands and getting lucky. His play in this particular hand with AA was pretty awful (IMO) as well, if you think about it. He was taking maximum risk and making moves that, without a bad play from his opponent, would normally net him minimum value on his monster hand. He happened to get a magical flop for the situation. Had he not gone all-in blind, this would have been a much easier fold post-flop, even if he open shoved after the flop, because then AK or AQ would fall into his range.Anyhow, you mentioned that you think he could only have AA in this situation. I agree with you that his tells and blind all-in certainly pointed to that and the fact that he DID have AA also supports the proposition. But I'm not sure why you can completely discount two factors.1) the chance that he had KK in this situation and would play it the same2) the fact that him having AA was far more unlikely from a statistical standpoint.How many times have you ever flopped the second nuts, or something that you could reasonably assume to tbe beaten by only one hand? I would assume that in the vast majority of these instances, you lost a lot of chips. Now, maybe in a traditional bubble situation, the better play is to never call all-in unless you have the nuts. But in my mind, this wasn't a traditional bubble situation. In my mind, the real bubble was about 12 spots away.

#23 TrueAce13

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 11:52 AM

Some great stuff here
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#24 donk4life

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 11:59 AM

stfu willard

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

I don't mind folding out hands we beat.

#25 akashenk

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 01:17 PM

donk, I hope your contributions in the real world are move valuable that what you are bringing to this conversation. I suppose it would be hard for them not to be, but who knows?

#26 donk4life

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 05:42 PM

Hey I added my contributions. I told you a.) preflop was a huge mistake, b.) your logic for justifying your play made no sense, and c.) even contemplating folding the flop is retarded. Sorry they weren't worded in the manner you wanted. Maybe next time either a.) don't play the hand terribly, or b.) don't get all butt hurt when people call you out on it.

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

I don't mind folding out hands we beat.

#27 TrueAce13

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 09:39 PM

GTFO DONK!
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#28 akashenk

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 04:55 AM

Yes, Donk, you did add your contributions. Most of them, however, weren't particularly useful. However, there's still hope. This last post of yours was the most coherent one you have made. Let's take a look at it.You wrote:"a) [calling] preflop was a huge mistake" Here you agree with pretty much everyone else who has responded and you agree with me as well. I admitted in my original post that this was a mistake. Whether or not it was a "huge" mistake or not is fairly irrelevant and since the reasons for it being a mistake are pretty apparent, I don't see any justification to continue discussing this aspect of the hand. "b.) your logic for justifying your play made no sense" I assume you are referring to the part where you wrote "#2 under the section of [your] analysis is just comical". Well that comment, as well as the one I reference here aren't particularly useful. Why was my analysis comical/did not make sense? Did you not understand the words I was saying? Did you not agree with them? "c.) even contemplating folding the flop is retarded [ludicrous]" Ignoring your course language for the moment, here it would seem you actually disagree with most of the others who have responded to this thread who would have played it safe and folded post-flop. While I obviously disagree with their final judgment, I fail to see why at least "contemplating" a fold is wrong in your eyes. Do you always call for all of your chips when you don't have the nuts without even thinking about what the other person might have? That hardly seems like a +EV way to go about things. Now, as for your other comments here, I will just say this... If I had played the hand perfectly, I would have to be a pretty narcissistic SOB to spend the time to post about it in a forum like this. I don't need to be congratulated by random anonymous people in order feel self-worth. Also, given the title of this thread, and my original post, it should be obvious I am not averse to having people tell me they think I did something wrong or disagree with me.However, it should be equally obvious that I do not use this message board as an opportunity to spew whatever random thought is crossing my brain at the moment. I am prepared to explain anything I say if it is not understood, and defend anything I say if it is not agreed with, and also do something most people don't like to do nowadays... change my mind. You see, this process is called "a conversation". For thousands of years, it is how people communicated and learned about and from each other. I guess in our modern tweet-filled world, people believe that exposing their random, ill-formed thoughts at any given moment is equivalent to communicating. My personal belief is that this trend is both sad and detrimental to the human race, but that is a conversation for another day.In the meantime, you are of course free to continue to make "drive-by" posts, calling people names and making barely-intelligible, incoherent statements. But you shouldn't be surprised when others call you out on it in this, or any other arena.

#29 answer20

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 06:58 AM

wow ... short trip to the bathroom and look what I missed!!When playing this great game you have to go with your reads at some point in time and sometimes those reads are wrong ... and you either learn to live with it or end up alone on the bus. You felt that he could have had KK just as easily as AA since he was playing an unconventional style ... you went with it, and was wrong. Your thinking at the bubble was to chip up for a run at the top 20% of the money. While I think this type of thinking is not bad to consider and your logic that lots of min cashes don't necessarily add up to long-term results I also think that when you are actually at the bubble you need to gear down and pick up that 'freeroll' mentality. You stayed in this thing this long ... you might as well get the next tournament paid for before you gear up again for the 'big' finish.You also got roped into a cooler of a Flop, which made AA even more unlikely ... but not AK or AQ. You are losing to AA, AK, AQ and sets ... AQ and sets are unlikely so you are losing to 67% of his possible hands that even a maniac would dark bet this way. I think that percentage is 'real world' too low since I think he dark bets KK less often than the other 2 possibilities. You can still get away from this hand and go after a chip up ... 2 mistakes rarely come back to a positive resultThis is the same trap that we fall into on a Turn when we should have bet or raised a Flop ... we see our mistake and compound it with another one when it's too late and we end up in a worse spot.You sound a little math-orientated, but still in tune with the live aspect of the things. I think that the live aspect of things is truly lost in these blogs and comments, but it is also the hardest to try to relate to a stranger not in exact situation ... see you accross the felt.

#30 akashenk

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 09:19 AM

Thanks for a well-reasoned post, answer20. At the time, I considered how sick I would have felt if he turned over AK or AQ, because based solely on the pre-flop play, these hands made some sense. I would have felt sick because, as you stated, I compounded a bad pre-flop play with a bad call after the flop.However, I really felt that his all-in blind would have been absolutely nuts with AK or AQ in this situation, so I pretty much discounted those two hand possibilities. I also didn't think it was very likely he had a non AA set since the board was something like A62. I doubted very much he would shove blind with a pair as low as 66 and if he happened to cach a random set like that on the flop, turn or river, against my top pair, then so be it.I think you're 100% correct abount my mentality vis-a-vis cashing. Here's a little background. I have been having a very good year as far as as cash rate is conserned.. cashing in something like 16% of tourneys. However, my ROI is down compared to the last few years. The reason is pretty clear. I'm not going deep enough in the tourneys I cash in. During this last WSOP trip to LV, I spent some time thinking about what really separates the highly successful tournament poker player from the moderately successful, or even unsuccessful tournament poker player. Some of it is obviously skill and some of it is obviously luck, but I think it also has a lot to do with their approach. These guys/gals play to win the tournament. IN WSOP terms, they are going for bracelets. Cashing is almost irrelevent. Considering how difficult it has become to win tournaments with the size of fields and the improved skill of players, I think an even greater emphasis is placed on striking while the iron is hot, so to speak. You really need to take advantage of those relatively few opportunities you have to run really deep and cash big.The way I played this hand pre-flop was certainly not an example of me taking advantage of one of these opportunities, but I really think my post-flop call was correct, even though the results went against me. I could have folded.. limped into the money, and then, who knows. But I really felt that it would take a whole host of circumstances to go my way for that strategy to succeed in getting me to the top 3-4 payouts, and in the heat of the moment, I decided it was more likely that the villain had KK or some other hand I had dominated.

#31 TrueAce13

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 11:12 AM

JFC dude! Thinking about folding is beyond HORRENDOUS! Anyone suggesting thinking about it is completely wrong. When you post a hand in a strategy thread, BE OPEN TO PEOPLE'S OPINIONS! I would look to listen to people such as Donk, Highway, and myself Stop trying to defend a play when it is completely wrong.
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#32 akashenk

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 11:18 AM

I gotta say, trueace... I have no idea what you are talking about. What play am I defending that is completely wrong?

#33 TrueAce13

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 11:34 AM

you keep on trying to say that you should of folded the flop (soooo ****ing results oriented thinking). Your range you put villain on is just amazing. you "know" that when he jams blind he HAS to have AA/KK: this is not really the case. He can have a ton of hands. But you calling PF puts you in such a stupid spot. What is your justification behind it? What do you accomplish? It is just pure lighting money on fire by flatting. Everything about this hand is horrible. Well, besides the iso raise, I like that. After that, the call pre is silly and then second guessing calling off top pair for like 14 or something bbs is laughable.
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#34 akashenk

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 12:15 PM

I think you must be reading someone else's posts, or are misreading mine. At no point do I say I should have folded the flop. In fact, I DID call the flop and the whole point of this thread is me trying to make a case that this is the right play, DESPITE the results. Some posters have suggested I should have folded the flop because of the bubble, but I believe I have made a case as to why I disagree. Please read carefully before you go on a rant.As for the points you make here... yes I felt like I "knew" he had AA/KK" when he went in blind. That was my read. Maybe the folks you play with on a consistant basis are capable of shoving all in blind, ostensibly for their tournament lives on the bubble with a fairly wide range, but I think that is more the exception than the rule. Anyhow, the nice thing about my read here is that I was right. The problem was that the read made for a highly polarized decision.Now, as to what you find laughable... you are free to laugh in response to whatever you like, but CONSIDERING a fold on the flop here is in no way laughable unless you have a problem controling your laughter. Its your tournament life at stake and you are beaten by a number of hands, statistically. I have said, had he played the hand conventionally and gone all in AFTER seeing the flop rather than in the dark, I would have likely folded.. top pair or no, 14BB or no. Maybe you think that would have been laughable, but I think that probably just illustrates a difference in philosophy when it comes to tournaments, rather than anything else.Lastly... I am perfectly open to others' opinions... when they are reasoned. You seem to suggest I should "listen" to posters like you and donk. It seems to me that donk has a really hard time stringing together sentences and you have a hard time following what's going on. Outside of what you post, I have no way of knowing whether you have any clue what you're talking about when it comes to poker, or if you're just some fool who constantly finds yourself in an absurd position like the folks in your profile picture. If you, or donk, or anyone else for that matter want me or others to respect your opinions, then you should put them forth in a respectful manner. Otherwise you're just another boob with an internet connection.




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