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Hand Vs Isaac Haxton


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#21 MiracleMaker

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 06:49 PM

View PostPhil Galfond, on Sunday, April 29th, 2012, 6:49 PM, said:

*It's also an option to 3bet to a smaller amount than all-in. This makes you and your ranges tougher, but I think works out poorly given tournament life considerations. I'm not sure how often Ike calls, or if he'd only shove or fold. I think it makes more sense, and is much easier, to shove hands like 88, A5s, and AQo and to 3bet smaller with air and hands like JJ+.
The way I read the hand, it seemed like Daniel had Ike covered. Doesn't that make 3-betting better as you could effectively leverage his stack as he'd be less likely to call for the reasons you described? I also don't quite understand shoving for ~30bb with the TT-88, A5s, AQo range. I guess if you assume that Ike has Daniel covered and that he could call a fair bit, you're willing to define your range to prevent him from out playing you in position? In the case where Daniel has Ike covered, it seems like adding these mid-strength hands to your three betting range is better because it would let you 3-bet wider, no?

View PostPhil Galfond, on Sunday, April 29th, 2012, 6:49 PM, said:

I love the way you played the flop, and it's something I don't do enough of in tournaments. My instinctive reaction is to call and figure it out later, but I think your play is so much better. I'm not sure if it's for the same reasons I like it or not (or if it was based on some very cool reads), but I'd rather hear your thought process than get into mine.
I'm also curious to hear Daniel's explanation here. When you say this is something you don't do enough of do you mean raising in general or this size raise in particular. I don't understand the sizing, especially with the hand he has, it seems like shoving would have been better. Although I do agree, that this is a spot where calling feels more natural but is a lot worse than raising. I guess with the smaller raise you can do this a very high % of the time and expect that he folds quite a bit and if you're going to do it a lot you need all the value hands you can get. Actually seems kinda similar to the pre-flop situation in that way...

#22 DiogoLopes

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 06:53 PM

Hey Phil. Apparently we had the same idea.I didn't think to calculate the EV of a shove pre-flop because in my opinion 30bb is too many chips to flip. But I agree with you that he has a very wide range and therefore most of the time He Folds and we take the pot right away. The small % of the time that he paid our equity against all calling-range is somewhere around 40%. But, i always prefer the 3-bet. Give some infos about his hand and we have the control of the action if he calls.Play Post-flop is really difficult to me take the better decision against Ike, so I 'll never raise his c-bet. If i was sitting on the big blind and had paid: I'd go all in, checking/move-in or fold. I'll never call in this spot just because this changes nothing... if i hit the flush and he has a better flush ok he will win my whole stack. So for me: move in or fold.Of course whether i'm Daniel Negreanu, with your reading and post-flop skill, ck/raise is very very creative and thought. I like too. (Sorry for my bad and repetitive english)

#23 fivechips

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 07:27 PM

I'm not liking this at all. If you're going to take this approach on a flop like this why not just shove pre-flop when you have real fold equity? You're dominated by any K with a diamond kicker better than an 8, a huge dog to any two diamonds higher than an 8, a significant dog to any flush, and against any KX you're a slight (8 or under) to huge dog (8 or better) to any non-diamond kicker. Again post flop if you're taking this stand why not just shove the flop out of position? Again with fold equity. Anyway I would never in a million years play this hand the way you did. I probably shove pre-flop to the cut off raise if he's aggressive and hope for a fold or a coin flip. Of course I have almost no real poker accomplishments whatsoever - so on that note I'm waiting to hear your explanation.

#24 Phil Galfond

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 07:56 PM

View Postrouliroul, on Sunday, April 29th, 2012, 6:48 PM, said:

Wait what? I've got stacks at 36.9k effective. You're advocating shoving 30bb effective over a 2.4bb open? Sure, a shove is slightly +EV vs his opening range, but a 3bet to a bit over 10k is clearly better.
I think shoving is much more than slightly +EV. If there were no antes, I'd think we were too deep, but there's enough money in the pot that I feel fine shoving this much in to take it down.If your argument is that 3betting to 10k with this hand is better for our overall game, and for the times we want to 3bet bluff, I'd tend to agree. I would be surprised if it's much better with our specific hand, especially because the value of stack preservation in tourneys. If Daniel started the hand with a massive stack, I'd like 3betting smaller much much more.All that said, I think 3betting smaller is a perfectly good option. My guess is it's barely worse than shoving, and I prefer it to calling against a tough player.Actually, one major benefit to 3betting smaller is that we get the money in against all pairs, whereas when we shove, we can expect him to fold most worse pairs, I think. Still though, small pairs are such a small part of his range that I still prefer shoving to 3betting small and giving a tough player very good pot odds to call and gamble with my medium strength hand.

#25 tommyhomada

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 08:35 PM

Thats a really bold re raise i say he had kings!3 kingsThere no way someones going to do that with a straight draw against you.You know when it comes out and i know that you know!Lol your awesome daniel!!!!

#26 rouliroul

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 06:13 AM

View PostPhil Galfond, on Sunday, April 29th, 2012, 7:56 PM, said:

I think shoving is much more than slightly +EV. If there were no antes, I'd think we were too deep, but there's enough money in the pot that I feel fine shoving this much in to take it down.If your argument is that 3betting to 10k with this hand is better for our overall game, and for the times we want to 3bet bluff, I'd tend to agree. I would be surprised if it's much better with our specific hand, especially because the value of stack preservation in tourneys. If Daniel started the hand with a massive stack, I'd like 3betting smaller much much more.All that said, I think 3betting smaller is a perfectly good option. My guess is it's barely worse than shoving, and I prefer it to calling against a tough player.Actually, one major benefit to 3betting smaller is that we get the money in against all pairs, whereas when we shove, we can expect him to fold most worse pairs, I think. Still though, small pairs are such a small part of his range that I still prefer shoving to 3betting small and giving a tough player very good pot odds to call and gamble with my medium strength hand.
I get what you're saying about preserving our stack, although I think you're overvaluing our edge in future spots, this being a 25k high roller. By shoving, we lose the value of allowing him to 4bet bluff, and we make ourselves easier to play against from the blinds. This will actually encourage him to open wider vs our blinds, which will result in slightly less future profitable situations. I don't believe it's worth it just to avoid the added variance of sometimes playing out of position with 88. We only have a pot sized bet behind if he calls, so it's not a terrible spot to be in even vs Ike. I'd agree with a shove in that spot vs him if we were playing the WSOP Main Event with other players at the table being unknowns.

#27 zimmer4141

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 06:48 AM

I think with Daniel's image, shoving > 3b/calling >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> flatting pre.Playing a pot with 88, 30bb deep, OOP against Ike Haxton, you just have no chance to play that postflop profitably. I don't think Daniel 3-bets light enough to get Ike to 4b jam light in this spot.Flatting pre is absolutely suicidal. His range is so wide and undefined, and he can just abuse you when you flat in this spot. You're not deep enough to flat for set equity and you can't outrun the math of being 30bb deep. Shove pre, print Sklansky Bucks, sigh when he has higher pairs, win races against AQ/AK, and win the pot right there like 90% of the time.Edit: The biggest problem with as played is that the information he gains by seeing the flop is way more valuable than the information you gain. You have no idea what his range is when you c/r/call the flop. However, he probably has a pretty damn good idea if he's ahead or behind. This allows him to play perfectly while you are purely guessing as to his range.
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#28 Balloon guy

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 07:32 AM

Isn't this a re-buy tourny?Could DN be playing passive pre-flop knowing Isaac is C-betting to get it all in unless the board is really bad?More risk/reward play?
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#29 TrueAce13

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 09:06 AM

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#30 looshle

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 09:17 AM

I think the best part of Phil's post is talking about Ike's opening range. People are too quick to say "loose opener, late position, jam." Jamming here is going to be the best play IMO but being aware of what factors are going to make someone open more or less hands will make a more marginal spot a clear cut decision.
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#31 BigDMcGee

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 11:35 AM

hey phil since we have your ear.. could you comment on an issue that has been raging on the forums. Should DN shave his head and just embrace his balding, or keep fighting that futile fight against time?Posted Image
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#32 UnluKKy

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 01:43 PM

a poker forum with Phil Galfond and Daniel Negreanu analyzing hands? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?this information is PURE GOLDPLEASE do more of this.

#33 keith crime

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 02:41 PM

If I was in this hand and did this Ike would have KK with the King of Diamonds even thought the King of Diamonds was already on the board

#34 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:23 PM

View PostPhil Galfond, on Sunday, April 29th, 2012, 6:49 PM, said:

Hey Daniel,Just registered today when I saw this hand. Looking forward to checking out the forums. Sorry in advance - I tend to talk too much when it comes to strategy, so this probably will end up longer than it needs to be. Here are my opinions-Preflop:This seems somewhat close between calling and shoving, but I would rather shove. Looks like effective stacks were around 39k to start the hand. This is important, as is who covers whom and by how much.Assuming this is 9 handed, there's 6500 in the pot before calling his raise. You're a little bit deeper than I generally like to shove (though I think many of these hot-shot young kid tourney pros would disagree), but I think this is a good spot for it. Ike will be opening very very wide here, especially if he perceives the button and sb as weaker/tighter players. Did he? He'd open less frequently if there were a tough player on the button or in the sb with between 15 and 25k. Was there? His stack matters too, but not as much for how often he opens. Yes, I think he was opening very wide here but shoving felt like an excessive play based on stack sizes, so I'd either have to 3bet then call, or flat. In retrospect I think that's better line against tougher players who play well post flop, but versus weak to average players I'd never consider making that play and getting it in vs a bigger pair or two overs. Just "not my style" as I feel comfortable playing flops against most people, even OOP, but Ike is probably the wrong guy to do that against.I wouldn't be shocked to see him open 100% in this spot, given the right players and stacks involved. I would be shocked if he opened less than 50% of hands, unless there were a very active short stack behind him.Anyways, I didn't run the math, but I'm positive it would show shoving to be very +EV (which means much better than folding). I'd be happy to run through it, by the way, if anyone would like. That's not the whole story, since calling is certainly better than folding too.Analyzing the value of a call is hard. I don't have a method to get an accurate estimate (I haven't tried very hard, since it matters very little in cash games). Calling 88 against Ike's wide range with all the money already in the pot is clearly +EV (compared to folding). I'm just guessing it's less +EV than shoving.Ike is extremely smart and tough, which is even worse for you than extremely smart and less tough, since that type of player would let you get to showdown more easily. You're out of position- regardless of where you rate your postflop skill level vs. Ike's, as long as it's somewhere in the ballpark, you have to agree that position is powerful enough to ensure that he'll have a "postflop advantage" - another thing difficult to assign real $ value to.You have the kind of hand that rarely flops something that you want to get all-in with against his value range, and often flops something that you'd like to take to showdown cheaply, or perhaps to protectAgainst a weak player, I would always call. They'd often let you get to showdown cheaply, and you can out-read and out-manouver them, generating lots of extra EV. (A weaker player would also often have a tighter preflop range, making a shove preflop less profitable)One final consideration: If we somehow knew that the EV of calling and the EV of shoving were the same (in terms of chips), it would still be better to shove. Assuming you don't have 4x his stack or more (in which case you can ignore this), there is value in preserving your tournament life, or the majority of your stack. Our EV comes in different ways, depending on if we call or shove.-If we shove, the overwhelming majority of the time, we pick up 6500 chips. A very small % of the time, we get all in with maybe slightly over 40% equity on average. -If we call, we are much more likely to get stacks in, or to get a sizable part of our stack in before folding or before he folds. This (counterintuitively to some) increases our variance compared to shoving preflop, which is especially bad in tournaments.I think it was Sklansky (your fave) that showed that the value of each chip you gain in a tournament is less than the value of each chip you lose... or something like that. Point being, it's important to minimize variance, and to avoid coinflips for your stack or large parts of it... even more important if you have a decent skill advantage over the field.*It's also an option to 3bet to a smaller amount than all-in. This makes you and your ranges tougher, but I think works out poorly given tournament life considerations. I'm not sure how often Ike calls, or if he'd only shove or fold. I think it makes more sense, and is much easier, to shove hands like 88, A5s, and AQo and to 3bet smaller with air and hands like JJ+.Flop:I love the way you played the flop, and it's something I don't do enough of in tournaments. My instinctive reaction is to call and figure it out later, but I think your play is so much better. I'm not sure if it's for the same reasons I like it or not (or if it was based on some very cool reads), but I'd rather hear your thought process than get into mine.Nice hand.-Phil
My thinking on the flop went something like this: Ike is good. I can never fold here obviously, but check calling puts me in a lot of bad spots, AND allows him to see a free turn and river if he chooses too. If he has a hand like Qc 9d for example, he has a ton of equity against my hand, and will bet this flop some percentage of the time. I'd be lying if I said I knew how often, I really am not sure if he bets here very often or not. If I check-raise this flop, I think I actually get him to at least consider folding some hands that contain an overcard and a better flush draw. Also if he has a hand like KT no diamond, he has to consider folding that too. He can never be happy about getting it in with a hand like that. My hand is crushed by only a couple hands: a flopped flush and a King with a higher diamond. Considering how wide Ike should bet this flop, I'd simply chalk that up to a "cooler." I'm either in coinflips against a hand like Ad Qh, or I have a draw against hands like AK with no diamond. Even against a set I have decent equity. Obviously once I decide to check raise him, I cannot fold. However, this opens up other future opportunities for me. Lets say I min-checkraised him on this flop with complete air, 78 of spades? He folds everything except a King or better, or a big diamond. When I check-raise he has to assume he has no fold equity. My check-raise looks very strong, which is why I think you should do it with complete air sometimes. Ike will never move in there without either a King or a diamond draw. Almost no thinking player ever would, so rather than risk a bluff shove, there is no need with hands I feel have zero equity... Similar thinking to the hand I bluffed Timex in the super high roller. Did you see that QT of hearts bluff? I called a 5 bet OOP then check raised a 9 5 4 flop risking 207k leaving myself 350k? One of those spots where my opponent can't possible see any fold equity, and if he does shove, I don't think I ever have more than 5% equity against his range. Really appreciate your thoughts and agree that against Ike I should actually be more aggressive pre-flop, having said that, I felt like I had a decent read on the table and didn't want to get it in against him pre-flop because I figured he would call me with all pairs that have me beat, as well as AJ+
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#35 Adam Junglen

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:23 PM

Ike is very good post flop and 88 is tough to play out of position with these stack sizes (and especially with 1/6th bb ante)...I didn't want to post "move in pre" because I feel like I tell you to do that every hand (but if phil galfond says to move in pre, I'm all about it..). I'd probably 3-bet with intention of calling if I didn't move in pre.agree post flop is a spot where you'll be good more often than most people think, esp vs ike who's shoving wheel draws, pairs worse than 8's and ace highs. on K 42, Q 54, etc

#36 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:24 PM

Oh, and btw he had Ah Kh. Turn blank river 8! Woot :-)
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#37 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:29 PM

View Postfivechips, on Sunday, April 29th, 2012, 8:27 PM, said:

I'm not liking this at all. If you're going to take this approach on a flop like this why not just shove pre-flop when you have real fold equity? You're dominated by any K with a diamond kicker better than an 8, a huge dog to any two diamonds higher than an 8, a significant dog to any flush, and against any KX you're a slight (8 or under) to huge dog (8 or better) to any non-diamond kicker. Again post flop if you're taking this stand why not just shove the flop out of position? Again with fold equity. Anyway I would never in a million years play this hand the way you did. I probably shove pre-flop to the cut off raise if he's aggressive and hope for a fold or a coin flip. Of course I have almost no real poker accomplishments whatsoever - so on that note I'm waiting to hear your explanation.
All the hands you mention Ike having that crush me represent less than 5% of his range in that spot when he bets. He needs a FLUSH or a King WITH a diamond. That is VERY unlikely. I do "ok" against every other hand he has since when I'm beat I'll have 11 outs likely which doesn't suck, and when he is drawing, we'll be flipping.
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#38 charder30

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:57 PM

flop is whatever, could either way but I think just calling preflop is a mistake. I would 3 bet calll, shove, call in that order.
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#39 Holdenper

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:59 PM

Are you donkbetting in this spot (vs Ike, and these stacksizes) at all? Or either c/c or CR?Btw this topic is pure gold:)Thanks Daniel for the insight! I would never consider CR with air, and in appearance without FE, but there are definitely some good spots for that:)

#40 zimmer4141

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 05:13 PM

I really don't get the logic that check/calling flop puts you in a lot of bad spots but calling pre is optimal. Plays seem pretty comparable in that they both leave you with awful options.You allow Ike to play this hand perfectly. If he has nothing, he now shuts down and loses a pf raise and a c-bet which I'm sure he is prepared to do a ton through the course of a tourney. If he wants to get it in, he's either flipping or has you crushed, and his get it in range prob has 60-65% equity vs. your hand.
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