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My Thoughts On The Latest Ftp News


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#1 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 09:53 AM

Let me start by saying this is all speculation. It seems as though the Tapie group is relatively close to taking over FTP operations. May 3rd is a public hearing for the "New Full Tilt" to apply for a license and it appears they have been testing their servers recently in preparation for a relaunch. Obviously there will be no relaunch in the US any time soon, so paying US players wouldn't seem to be a priority, but paying ROW (rest of world) players is essential. My "guess" is that the Tapie group will cover the balances of ROW players, and the New Full Tilt group will be off the hook for the US player balance, instead forcing US players to try and get their balances from the DOJ. Seems like that could be a lengthy process, and in many cases not worth the hassle unless you had a significant amount of money tied up on the site. There is no need for a sense of urgency by the DOJ to settle US player balances and I don't imagine this process will go smoothly. Also, again this is just a guess, but I'd be really surprised if US players will be reimbursed for their FPPs. If the DOJ does take over the responsibility of paying back US players, I think that would be bad news for the bankrolls of Bitar, Ferguson, and Lederer. I would assume that the DOJ would look to nab any and all assets those board members have, and when they are done with that, it seems likely that they will then track down others with debts to FTP. If those people can't pay those debts back, I would think that could be really bad for them. Bitar, Ferguson, and Lederer ending up broke after running this company into the ground certainly feels like "justice served." I also think it will be hard for Ferguson and Lederer to get staked in any tournaments, so it seems like they will end up in ruin, and rightfully so. So, the question is: will FTP relaunch for real money despite all US players not being paid? I think yes. Just another guess, but based on how long it takes the government to process these types of things, a 6-9 month window post launch would seem like a win.****** What will the New Team Full Tilt look like? I imagine there would be a complete overhaul, but the problem you then have is where do you find 10-15 available "A-List" type pros to represent the site? Obviously you are going to have to pay a pretty penny in light of the company's history, but I can't think of 10 available names that would boast the same type of name recognition as the previous group that included the likes of Ivey, Antonius, Hansen, Dwan, and others. It's possible that some team FTP members would return to representing the company, but off hand, I can't think of any that would be likely to do that. It would also seem that the new team FTP would take on much more of a Euro look since the US market is still unavailable. I just can't think of too many unsigned players at this point who's name cache carries enough weight to excite the fan base enough to replicate what the "Old FTP" created. Sure, you have the diehard players/fans who are in love with some of the online superstars, but if the goal is to reignite a more mainstream fan base, then it's big names that sell. A Doyle Brunson type perhaps, but I don't see that happening.




#2 pksopa

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 10:16 AM

View PostDanielNegreanu, on Thursday, April 19th, 2012, 10:53 AM, said:

Let me start by saying this is all speculation. It seems as though the Tapie group is relatively close to taking over FTP operations. May 3rd is a public hearing for the "New Full Tilt" to apply for a license and it appears they have been testing their servers recently in preparation for a relaunch. Obviously there will be no relaunch in the US any time soon, so paying US players wouldn't seem to be a priority, but paying ROW (rest of world) players is essential. My "guess" is that the Tapie group will cover the balances of ROW players, and the New Full Tilt group will be off the hook for the US player balance, instead forcing US players to try and get their balances from the DOJ. Seems like that could be a lengthy process, and in many cases not worth the hassle unless you had a significant amount of money tied up on the site. There is no need for a sense of urgency by the DOJ to settle US player balances and I don't imagine this process will go smoothly. Also, again this is just a guess, but I'd be really surprised if US players will be reimbursed for their FPPs. If the DOJ does take over the responsibility of paying back US players, I think that would be bad news for the bankrolls of Bitar, Ferguson, and Lederer. I would assume that the DOJ would look to nab any and all assets those board members have, and when they are done with that, it seems likely that they will then track down others with debts to FTP. If those people can't pay those debts back, I would think that could be really bad for them. Bitar, Ferguson, and Lederer ending up broke after running this company into the ground certainly feels like "justice served." I also think it will be hard for Ferguson and Lederer to get staked in any tournaments, so it seems like they will end up in ruin, and rightfully so. So, the question is: will FTP relaunch for real money despite all US players not being paid? I think yes. Just another guess, but based on how long it takes the government to process these types of things, a 6-9 month window post launch would seem like a win.****** What will the New Team Full Tilt look like? I imagine there would be a complete overhaul, but the problem you then have is where do you find 10-15 available "A-List" type pros to represent the site? Obviously you are going to have to pay a pretty penny in light of the company's history, but I can't think of 10 available names that would boast the same type of name recognition as the previous group that included the likes of Ivey, Antonius, Hansen, Dwan, and others. It's possible that some team FTP members would return to representing the company, but off hand, I can't think of any that would be likely to do that. It would also seem that the new team FTP would take on much more of a Euro look since the US market is still unavailable. I just can't think of too many unsigned players at this point who's name cache carries enough weight to excite the fan base enough to replicate what the "Old FTP" created. Sure, you have the diehard players/fans who are in love with some of the online superstars, but if the goal is to reignite a more mainstream fan base, then it's big names that sell. A Doyle Brunson type perhaps, but I don't see that happening.
Perhaps Annie Duke can join the team and run another company to the ground. Daniel, did you listen to quadjacks when whicked chops was a guest (last week i think)? It was just unreal of shadiness (does it spell like that?) they tried to pull on WC. The **** and Pollak must be dead in poker industry now

#3 pokernews101

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 06:41 PM

Why can't the new FTP just do what Stars did and let Americans sign in cash out and the DOJ sends a check from one of Bitars or Ferguson's seized accounts. Seems hassle free to me.

#4 FCP Bob

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 06:45 PM

View Postpokernews101, on Thursday, April 19th, 2012, 10:41 PM, said:

Why can't the new FTP just do what Stars did and let Americans sign in cash out and the DOJ sends a check from one of Bitars or Ferguson's seized accounts. Seems hassle free to me.
Because there is no way near enough money available to do that.Full Tilt didn't have enough money to cover player balances. Poker Stars has all player's money in separate accounts that they don't mix with operational money.The Isle of Man who regulate Poker Stars do a lot better job than does Alderney.
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#5 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 11:13 PM

View PostFCP Bob, on Thursday, April 19th, 2012, 7:45 PM, said:

Because there is no way near enough money available to do that.Full Tilt didn't have enough money to cover player balances. Poker Stars has all player's money in separate accounts that they don't mix with operational money.The Isle of Man who regulate Poker Stars do a lot better job than does Alderney.
What he said




#6 flintsword

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Posted 20 April 2012 - 08:03 AM

Outside from the obvious clown-show financial management of FullTiltPoker :ts , the software of the site and the play was world-class.There is a net benefit to the poker world getting the rest of the world (ROW) money back into the hands of those players all over the world.The big problem is the U.S. players money on Full Tilt and the DOJ is in charge on that score simply because they are in the driver's seat for the sale of FTP to the Tapie Group.Since it was a condition of the DOJ that ALL U.S. players funds would be handled by the DOJ, it would be unfair to blame the new owners of FTP for this situation. The new owners of FTP have to play the hand they are dealt and the dealer (+casino owner! :club: ...) is the DOJ.The new FullTiltPoker will by definition be a shadow of its former self and will have to prove themselves all over again. Competition is good for any industry and I am sure that PokerStars is not quaking in their boots over the new FullTiltPoker.Any intelligent U.S. online poker player with considerable online balances on FTP is already resident outside of the continental U.S. or should be to try and get their money back.The FullTiltPoker house has been fumigated and the cockroaches have fled (hopefully ... :4h ) so the main problem with FTP is solved.Hopefully the DOJ will now go after the cash that the operating principals have salted away. Considering the way FTP was mismanaged it is not much of a stretch to guess that money was hidden away. If the DOJ manages to get all of that money back the U.S. players should get paid something but I agree with DN that it is going to be a long, long time, unfortunately :(In the long term I think it is fair to say that online poker will come back to the U.S. and when that happens ... the New Full Tilt Poker will have a problem: a considerable percentage of the potential U.S. online poker playing population will despise them unless they fix the mess. So even if the DOJ gives only a portion of the money back to the U.S. players, the only way in the future the New Full Tilt Poker can get into the U.S. is to make up the difference.Granted this is all speculation but the bottom line is that only happy poker players stay with a site. PokerStars has a ton of happy players.The New Full Tilt Poker is going to have to work really hard to make their players happy and I say this is good for poker in general.
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#7 Cruz

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Posted 21 April 2012 - 09:22 AM

Obama plays poker. Fulltilt should snatch him up as one of their pros. As an added benefit, Obama in a cowboy hat slicing the deficit with thrown playing cards would make a great campaign commercial.I read somewhere that the new owners of FullTilt don't intend to segregate their players' funds. If that's true, I don't hold out much hope for their success as a business.




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