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Please Give Your Opinion On This Hand.


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#1 Ender46

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Posted 02 April 2012 - 06:57 AM

This is my first post on this forum, but I am a long time poker player (13+ years).Recently in a major tournament ($1100 live), I was knocked out on the following hand:I had about 47k with the blinds at 800/1600 with 200 ante, so I had around 30BB or a CSI/M of about 12. At the time this hand came up, we were 8 handed because a player had just been moved and immediately after that, another was busted.In 3rd position, I got Ah7h. The two early position players folded and I raised to 4k. The button, a player that I did not have much of a read on yet since he recently moved to my table, reraised to 10k out of about a 60k stack. Both blinds folded and I decided to call with 3 to 1 pot odds and take a flop, hoping to hit an ace or flush draw. Since I did not know this player, I put him on a tight range of TT+ or AK. Although this range could easily include 99 or AQ, I will discount them to be somewhat conservative.The flop was 2h-7d-10c. I checked and he bet 8k into a 24k pot. Getting 4 to 1 pot odds with possibly the best hand against AK and 5 outs plus a back door flush draw against most other hands, I called. The turn was the Kh. My immediate thoughts at this point were that if he has QQ or JJ, which have me beat, this is a scare card for him and I may be able to move him off the hand. Against AA or AK, I have 11 outs to the river, and against the worst case of TT or KK, I am in bad shape but still have 8 outs. I had about 30k left and the pot was 40k, so after some thought I decided I had enough fold equity against QQ and JJ to make pushing a positive play.I pushed and he called very quickly and flipped over KK. I missed my 8 outer and was knocked out of the tournament.After the hand, I calculated out my EV when pushing on the turn. In this calculation, I assumed that my opponent would fold QQ or JJ 75% of the time, which I think is about right. My assumed opponent's range is TT+ or AK. Since I hold an A and there is a K and T on the board, that leaves 33 possible combinations of those hands. The EV calculation is below:
KK,TT: 6/33(0.182*70k-0.818*30k) = -2.15kQQ,JJ: 12/33(0.75*40k+0.25(0.307*70k-0.693*30k)) = +10.97kAA,AK: 15/33(0.25*70-0.75*30) = -2.27kTotal EV = +6.55
Even if I lower my opponent's folding chance with QQ/JJ to 50%, I still get an EV of +2.98k. So he would need to call more often than fold to my push with QQ/JJ to make it a -EV play, which I do not think is realistic.Is my analysis of this hand correct? If I should have played it differently, can you suggest how? I have been told by most people that I bring this hand up to that they would fold preflop rather than play it for a raise. That is certainly the very tight way to play, but I am more of an aggressive player and I have A7s in my top 15% of hands, although barely, but I think it is very playable in this situation when 8 handed in mid position and the blinds and antes are getting relatively high.

#2 Ender46

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Posted 02 April 2012 - 10:12 AM

I just talked to someone that suggested pushing on the flop after his 8k bet. The more I thought about it and looked into that option, the better it seemed simply because AK is folding 100% of the time and i will likely have some fold equity against JJ as well, possibly up to 25% because JJ is now beat by TT, 77, and he may even inlude QQ in my range. I did an EV calculation for this option to compare, which is below:
TT: 3/35(0.04*70k-0.96*30k) = -2.23kJJ: 6/35(0.25*40k+0.75(0.242*70k-0.758*30k)) = +0.97kQQ,KK: 12/35(0.242*70k-0.758*30k) = -1.99kAA: 3/35(0.131*70k-0.869*30k) = -1.45kAK: 14/35(40k) = +16kTotal EV = +11.3k
I guess that answers it, not that it would have changed the outcome any.

#3 TrueAce13

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 08:08 AM

fold pre
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#4 blakheart

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 09:02 PM

You are too shallow to open from middle position with AX suited. With this size stack it is inevitable that you will be making a decision for all of your chips on the flop or the turn. It is very unlikely that you will flop well enough to feel good about getting all of your chips in the middle, unless the flop will keep everyone from calling.Read Harrington's books on tournament poker. He explains the math very well.

#5 Mercury69

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 11:19 AM

View PostTrueAce13, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2012, 12:08 PM, said:

fold pre

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#6 donk4life

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 01:33 PM

Why would you hope to hit an ace if you think is his range includes AKShoving the flop is awful, you don't want him to fold AK, he's never folding JJ+. I don't like the turn donk jam either. He's still not folding JJ or QQ, and obv never KK, AK, or AA. Check/decide. If you're getting odds to call, call. If he bets bigger, than just fold.

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

I don't mind folding out hands we beat.

#7 Ender46

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 12:38 PM

Thanks for the comments. I have since realized that flatting the 3 bet out of position was a key mistake and will make sure not to do that in the future with weaker hands such as this. The reasons I raised preflop were that the blinds had just gone up and the antes made the preflop pot significant enough to go for steals, and the big blind was one of the few tight players at the table.

#8 donk4life

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 01:54 PM

Raising pre is a good play, but just fold to the 3bet

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

I don't mind folding out hands we beat.

#9 Indig0

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Posted 24 April 2012 - 09:23 PM

View Postdonk4life, on Saturday, April 7th, 2012, 12:54 AM, said:

Raising pre is a good play, but just fold to the 3bet
+ 10

#10 fivechips

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 10:33 PM

To 10K after your raise says monster to me. I would just fold the suited Ace to his raise and avoid all the EV pot odds calculations.

#11 fivechips

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 10:35 PM

View Postdonk4life, on Friday, April 6th, 2012, 4:54 PM, said:

Raising pre is a good play, but just fold to the 3bet
I like limping with this hand in early position and then absorbing a raise and then seeing a flop. In that case we would have gotten a standard three bet raise from KK with no action in front of him. We see the flop - if we slam it we can stack him off. If we miss we get away cheaply. But that's just me.

#12 donk4life

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Posted 03 May 2012 - 05:15 AM

View Postfivechips, on Thursday, May 3rd, 2012, 1:35 AM, said:

I like limping with this hand in early position and then absorbing a raise and then seeing a flop. In that case we would have gotten a standard three bet raise from KK with no action in front of him. We see the flop - if we slam it we can stack him off. If we miss we get away cheaply. But that's just me.
This is by far the worst option. Please don't limp with one of the worst hands to limp with and think that if you hit the flop hard you're going to stack his KK.

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

I don't mind folding out hands we beat.

#13 rcgs59

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Posted 03 May 2012 - 05:57 AM

View Postdonk4life, on Friday, April 6th, 2012, 5:54 PM, said:

Raising pre is a good play, but just fold to the 3bet
totally agree with this

View Postdonk4life, on Thursday, May 3rd, 2012, 9:15 AM, said:

This is by far the worst option. Please don't limp with one of the worst hands to limp with and think that if you hit the flop hard you're going to stack his KK.
as Daniel would say don't limp pre especially with a average hand like Ace rag suited. A raise is fine but definitely fold to a 3 bet
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