Acid_Knight, on Monday, December 19th, 2011, 6:06 PM, said:
He's repping exactly T9hh or AThh (I mean WTF do people ever slowplay on that board, especially for both the flop and turn?) and not raising those hands OTF is pretty horrible since so little of your value range wants to fold that flop and you probably don't barrel that texture with air a ton. He could even have a weirdly played KQ or some other value hand or even **gasp!** a missed draw or worse made hand that he's now turning into a bluff. Folding here seems really really REALLY bad if you are asking, especially getting better than 3-1.
If he's flatting the flop and turn with KQ, it seems really strange for him to shove the river. Like, can he really expect to get value from many worse hands? The only value hand that I beat is a strange JJ. If he's bluffing, I'd expect he would shove faster than he did. It seemed like a classic, "time down to make hand look weak with the nuts" situation. There aren't too many air flush draws...which means he'd have to be turning a made hand into a bluff.It's close enough that if I had KK, I'd probably call (since it adds QQ as a value hand that I beat). If I had a decent read, I think I could call, but based on my limited reads (anonymous tables), he was probably a somewhat competent reg (he bought in for the max and hadn't done anything of strange note yet).It certainly pained me a lot, but I feel that of all the times that I've made this call in the past, I'm getting shown AT/T9 here like 80-90% of the time. If I'm shown those hands more than 75% of the time, it's a losing call.