81 replies to this topic

[Pot Odds RAC]

Milton, on Friday, April 8th, 2011, 2:24 PM, said:

This hand is a perfect example of how important reads are (and in this scenario, I mean opponent modeling).OP, I can give you the right answer as to whether or not your call is right for you based on your answers to a few questions.Do you think UTG idiot is acting how he did with any AA (including those with no diamond)? Yes. Very Possible.Do you think UTG idiot is acting how he did with KdQx? Yes. Very Possible.Do you think UTG idiot is acting how he did with a flush that beats yours? if so, which flushes? Yes. Very Possible, but I really didn't think so in this hand. It felt more like he hit a part of the Flop.Do you think UTG idiot is acting how he did with just an Ad? If so, is he liable to limp with any AdXx? Maybe, but I was thinking this was more of the Old Man's line.Which flushes that you beat do you think UTG idiot limped with? Not really necessarily putting this guy on a Flush - See next answer, but essentially I was having to give SOMEONE credit for the made Flush that beat me.Do you think UTG+1 is acting how he did with a flush that you beat? If so, which flushes? That was sort of the crux of my dilemma. I just couldn't put him on a made Flush that I beat. The specific player PLUS the fact that I had three shoves prior to my decision screamed out that at least one of them had a made hand (Flush) that beat mine.Do you think UTG+1 is acting how he did with just an Ad? If so, which AdXx do you think he's limping with? Yes. He is an Old Nit. AQ/AJ/A10, really just about any Ace is a possibility.Do you think LP is acting how she did with just an Ad? If so, which AdXx do you think she's limping with? Maybe. She was perhaps a little more solid than that, but given the opportunity to Limp in Late Position, she may have done so with a Naked Ace. I think she is mostly playing Top Ten and set mining.These are all quite important questions that have to be asked if you want to know the right answer. These questions determine the hand combinations you're up against, and the subsequent (and in this scenario, complex) equity calculations that must be gone through.You can argue with my logic on this, but here are some thoughts from my live experience.Idiot is easily shoving with as little as a naked AA or KdQx.Old man might actually tank call with a flush that beats yours, but almost never call with a flush you beat. (Edit: omitted a key word in my first post)Old man will marry something like AdQx, KdKx, AdAx for some reason, but be more prone to lay down AdXx depending on the type of nit you're dealing with.LP will tank call with just the Ad. Either way, the odds I came up with of you winning this hand based on what you're up against (according to my evaluation of their ranges) comes to a grand total of 37.8%. Basically, you gladly make the call.

This is assuming a lot of KNOWN information on a Live Opponent. I had little solid information. Good thing we can do profiling in Live Poker - I'd fail at being a TSA Agent.As I mention above, assessing each player independently and individually this is PERHAPS a call for me. Assessing the situation as a whole, I have to consider that I am drawing dead pretty often which leads (and lead) me to the decision that this is slightly more of a Fold opportunity. I'd say that 50% isn't a terrible estimate of the percentage of the times that I am facing a better Flush in this scenario. Frankly, as the cards actually fell, I think I was probably in one of the BEST Case Scenarios. The Bottom Set and NFD are perhaps predictable and "average". Top Set was maybe the only surprising reveal. But what else was she going to show? I mean, there isn't even a Combo Draw opportunity on that Flop. So even though I am facing one of the Best Case Scenarios, I'm still only a 46% to win. Really, it comes down to the number of times we think there is a Better Flush out there, and 50% is probably close to the break-even point for this decision.I don't think this was a Terrible Fold, but it probably wouldn't have been a Terrible Call either. Certainly Our Individual Style of Play would also be taken into account here and we apparently have a couple of different styles represented in this discussion. That we are having such a prolonged discussion I think shows that it doesn't fall into any "Snap Decision" Categories and is a good example of a Live Poker Dilemma.

[Milton]

I'm on campus in between classes right now, so I don't have the spreadsheet I was working on with me. But I'll re-run the numbers with different ranges.From what you're describing, a call is probably still right just because you seem to agree UTG and UTG+1 in all likelihood don't have flushes that beat you, but I can understand not wanting to stick an additional $120 in if you think there's a large enough chance you're drawing dead.

[mtdesmoines]

It's bad to call all in with an underflush in live poker with three all ins in front of you. I don't understand how this is still going.

[hartman72]

mtdesmoines, on Tuesday, April 12th, 2011, 6:04 AM, said:

It's bad to call all in with an underflush in live poker with three all ins in front of you. I don't understand how this is still going.

Because there is more to consider than "Oh theres 3 diamonds and on the board and I only have the 4th nuts so I have to fold since 3 people are all in."

[Milton]

mtdesmoines, on Tuesday, April 12th, 2011, 5:04 AM, said:

It's bad to call all in with an underflush in live poker with three all ins in front of you. I don't understand how this is still going.

And in most situations like this, folding is good practice. I thought I agreed. Then I broke down the hand logically and did the math to found out I was objectively wrong.Shutting alternative views down and having multiple people saying things like "I don't know how this can still be going on" is inbred thinking.Evolve. Because even if you're not, others will be and they might have approaches to certain problems that you hadn't considered. Understanding their approach is still beneficial to you as a poker player even if you don't consider their way to be a better one.Because just remember, at one point, raising preflop without a strong hand was considered "bad". So you can CHOOSE to just not understand or you can be respectful and let a discussion play out once for Christ's sake. Don't try to kill a thread with negativity. Let the people that care about something care about it.

[Ninja Ace]

mtdesmoines, on Tuesday, April 12th, 2011, 6:04 AM, said:

It's bad to call all in with an underflush in live poker with three all ins in front of you. I don't understand how this is still going.

Because there are lots of online players here not understanding the difference in aggression levels

[hartman72]

Ninja Ace, on Wednesday, April 13th, 2011, 4:22 PM, said:

Because there are lots of online players here not understanding the difference in aggression levels

Based on your previous posts to this thread, I'm guessing you think I'm the one that doesn't understand the difference in agression levels? I've taken the most heat during this topic....so I'm just assuming I'm the main target here. Maybe I'm wrong.If you are talking about me or the one or two other people that MAY consider my theory on this hand...I play STRICTLY live. Live being 1/2 NL. The majority that has posted on this thread...those that advocate a fold...post very heavily in KJ's micro ONLINE thread. Make it more clear who you are talking about...and we can go from there.

[mtdesmoines]

hartman72, on Tuesday, April 12th, 2011, 2:28 PM, said:

Because there is more to consider than "Oh theres 3 diamonds and on the board and I only have the 4th nuts so I have to fold since 3 people are all in."

This is so wrong. It's not even close to the point.

[mtdesmoines]

Milton, on Wednesday, April 13th, 2011, 12:52 PM, said:

And in most situations like this, folding is good practice. I thought I agreed. Then I broke down the hand logically and did the math to found out I was objectively wrong.Shutting alternative views down and having multiple people saying things like "I don't know how this can still be going on" is inbred thinking.Evolve. Because even if you're not, others will be and they might have approaches to certain problems that you hadn't considered. Understanding their approach is still beneficial to you as a poker player even if you don't consider their way to be a better one.Because just remember, at one point, raising preflop without a strong hand was considered "bad". So you can CHOOSE to just not understand or you can be respectful and let a discussion play out once for Christ's sake. Don't try to kill a thread with negativity. Let the people that care about something care about it.

I've played more than you. I've seen more than you. I know more than you. This is a fold. Even you being a smart ass and abusive doesn't change that fact.

[TrueAce13]

I'm hitting that right button...we have a floooshhhh(oh, i haven't read anything of this thread besides that we have a flush)

[hartman72]

mtdesmoines, on Thursday, April 14th, 2011, 4:53 AM, said:

I've played more than you. I've seen more than you. I know more than you. This is a fold. Even you being a smart ass and abusive doesn't change that fact.

You have contributed nothing to this thread other than "nitty old men play suited aces" If the right play is so obvious to you, and you don't feel like posting strategic content bc its such an easy fold, don't bother posting. Accept that you are right, I am wrong, and leave your close sided opinions to yourself.

[Pot Odds RAC]

Geez guys, put the dicks away. This is a Poker Discussion. If you don't have anything to contribute or think this is a worthless scenario to discuss, then fine - but the no content posting, trolling, and dick waving is part of the reason this is one of only two freaking hands with ANY discussion in this Forum so far this entire Month outside of the "Moving on Up" Thread.

[Ninja Ace]

Pot Odds RAC, on Thursday, April 14th, 2011, 12:37 PM, said:

but the no content posting, trolling, and dick waving is part of the reason this is one of only two freaking hands with ANY discussion in this Forum so far this entire Month outside of the "Moving on Up" Thread.

I think it's more due to the fact that FCP has made sooo many spots into a standard decision if you go through the archives here. Without hands like such posted, most spots are very dull and need one line responses, then the newbie OP asks for more than one line because they haven't read through all the gold here, so we copy/paste the general idea from those threads that's stored in our brains.

hartman72, on Wednesday, April 13th, 2011, 8:46 PM, said:

Based on your previous posts to this thread, I'm guessing you think I'm the one that doesn't understand the difference in agression levels?

I'm not the type of person to indirectly take shots at people. That's legitimately why this thread is still running.

hartman72, on Wednesday, April 13th, 2011, 8:46 PM, said:

I play STRICTLY live. Live being 1/2 NL.

FWIW your personal lack of understanding of why this is a fold may be a mere function of volume you've put in then. If you only play live, or a majority live player, then unless you've had 12+ years of exp its doubtful you've actually seen enough spots like this to get an accurate idea of how often there is a nut hand in here, since the spot itself is a rarity. And no, I'm not being a dick, I just state what I'm confident is factual information and lack all tact in delivery of said info.

[hartman72]

For the love of god, this forum blows. According to NA, it is full of geniuses and gold, therefore all strategic content about any situation has been covered. So in order for me to fit in, I have to suck co ck around here and massage everyone's nuts that agrees with the 'norm'. King James do u have the power to ban me from this so called 'forum' so I don't feel tempted to post anymore of my opinions that are obviously wrong? Because we are only allowed to have one opinion here....as shown by trystero, mtdesmoines.....dickheads that disagree with an alternative view, yet show NOTHING to back it up. I have respected everyone here and have only said discouraging things to others only when provoked. So please......just ban me. Cuz I'm far too lazy to create another account. And I am the devil....so I'm tempted easily.

[MuchRevs]

I have been lurking here for a long time and have never got involved in the discussions, But I have been following this and have a question.On the flop, when the Hero min-raises, at the 1-2 level, does this not scream to the players holding the sets of a draw? Then causing the QQ and 22 to shove to try and get what they believe to most likely be AdXx off their hand. If the Hero took a stronger stance here, and made it $60 or $75 to go, the QQ may call or still shove, but I really doubt the 22 or the actual AdXx gets involoved at that point, putting at least one if not both on nut flush/top set. And at that point with a 1 on 1 matchup, the calling off of the rest of the stack is a decent one due to the odds headsup.So I think the better question is, before the min raise "Is this a hand I can push/call off with?" If the answer is no, then the fold becomes an easy decision once all the action starts. If the answer is yes, then you play the raise differently, as to try and isolate/win the hand outright then and there.Just trying to take a different view of it all and get some opinions.

[mtdesmoines]

MuchRevs, on Friday, April 15th, 2011, 7:38 AM, said:

I have been lurking here for a long time and have never got involved in the discussions, But I have been following this and have a question.On the flop, when the Hero min-raises, at the 1-2 level, does this not scream to the players holding the sets of a draw? Then causing the QQ and 22 to shove to try and get what they believe to most likely be AdXx off their hand. If the Hero took a stronger stance here, and made it $60 or $75 to go, the QQ may call or still shove, but I really doubt the 22 or the actual AdXx gets involoved at that point, putting at least one if not both on nut flush/top set. And at that point with a 1 on 1 matchup, the calling off of the rest of the stack is a decent one due to the odds headsup.So I think the better question is, before the min raise "Is this a hand I can push/call off with?" If the answer is no, then the fold becomes an easy decision once all the action starts. If the answer is yes, then you play the raise differently, as to try and isolate/win the hand outright then and there.Just trying to take a different view of it all and get some opinions.

You're giving way too much credit to the villains in the hand. At 1/2 live, they're looking at their cards, seeing strength and trying to put money in. 1/2 NL live is the least complicated game you'll ever play. You can play for five years and never be ahead here again with your T high flush.

[mtdesmoines]

hartman72, on Thursday, April 14th, 2011, 9:15 AM, said:

You have contributed nothing to this thread other than "nitty old men play suited aces" If the right play is so obvious to you, and you don't feel like posting strategic content bc its such an easy fold, don't bother posting. Accept that you are right, I am wrong, and leave your close sided opinions to yourself.

This part is would be at the heart of a really solid post.

[mtdesmoines]

MuchRevs, on Friday, April 15th, 2011, 7:38 AM, said:

So I think the better question is, before the min raise "Is this a hand I can push/call off with?"

This is the only real question. Can we push this hand? CERTAINLY. Can we call it off with 7 all ins in front of us? Never.

[Ninja Ace]

hartman72, on Thursday, April 14th, 2011, 9:50 PM, said:

.dickheads that disagree with an alternative view, yet show NOTHING to back it up.

dude, you even got a pokerstove showing that when you are live you have 45% equity. Didn't realize you needed a pokerstove to show you the 0 or 0.05% equity you have when you were overflushed, which is about the only piece of evidence missing for the fold argument.I don't understand the rage you have about this. Let's put this another way and give cliffs:Arguments for fold:Careful analysis of action, aggression levels, assessing entire likely ranges, calculated equity vs pot odds, thinking that was anything but results oriented.Arguments for call:

TrueAce13, on Thursday, April 14th, 2011, 7:09 AM, said:

I'm hitting that right button...we have a floooshhhh(oh, i haven't read anything of this thread besides that we have a flush)

[Ninja Ace]

mtdesmoines, on Friday, April 15th, 2011, 5:55 AM, said:

This is the only real question. Can we push this hand? CERTAINLY. Can we call it off with 7 all ins in front of us? Never.

Exacary. This is called The Gap Concept