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Strange Hand - Live Full Ring $1/$2


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#41 XXEddie

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Posted 08 April 2011 - 01:11 PM

View Posthartman72, on Friday, April 8th, 2011, 1:48 PM, said:

Right, and we have the opportunity to go from ~160 to ~640. I believe we are dead here MAYBE 50% of the time, meaning we are ahead 50%. Of that 50%, we will win maybe 2/3 of the time when we are ahead. Which is why I call here. Again, if we are 300bbs deep, its totally different.
No and no.We are dead here way more than 50% of the time and if we are ahead we are only winning about 50% of the time. I'm not trying to say we are always dead (worst case scenario, obv) but all I see from your posts is how this is so easily the best case scenario (lower flush/set/2 pair).

#42 XXEddie

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Posted 08 April 2011 - 01:13 PM

View PostMilton, on Friday, April 8th, 2011, 12:24 PM, said:

Either way, the odds I came up with of you winning this hand based on what you're up against (according to my evaluation of their ranges) comes to a grand total of 37.8%. Basically, you gladly make the call.
Seriously? What ranges are you putting on villains. That is so unrealistically high.. You're saying we are ahead around 75-80% of the time. I just don't buy it.

#43 hartman72

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Posted 08 April 2011 - 02:14 PM

If we are ahead, we are going to win more than 50 pct of the time

#44 XXEddie

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Posted 08 April 2011 - 02:34 PM

View Posthartman72, on Friday, April 8th, 2011, 4:14 PM, said:

If we are ahead, we are going to win more than 50 pct of the time
That's a big if. And no we aren't. From the hands that showed up in OPs case we are only 46% to win. That's not more than 50, and it's nowhere close to 2/3 of the time like you said earlier.

#45 hartman72

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Posted 08 April 2011 - 02:48 PM

Can u show me 46 pct?

#46 SuperJon

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Posted 08 April 2011 - 03:13 PM

View Posthartman72, on Friday, April 8th, 2011, 6:48 PM, said:

Can u show me 46 pct?
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 7,380 games 0.005 secs 1,476,000 games/secBoard: Qd 7d 2dDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 46.341% 46.34% 00.00% 3420 0.00 { Td8d }Hand 1: 04.756% 04.76% 00.00% 351 0.00 { 22 }Hand 2: 24.634% 24.63% 00.00% 1818 0.00 { Ad6h }Hand 3: 24.268% 24.27% 00.00% 1791 0.00 { QQ

#47 hartman72

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Posted 08 April 2011 - 03:17 PM

View PostSuperJon, on Friday, April 8th, 2011, 4:13 PM, said:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 7,380 games 0.005 secs 1,476,000 games/secBoard: Qd 7d 2dDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 46.341% 46.34% 00.00% 3420 0.00 { Td8d }Hand 1: 04.756% 04.76% 00.00% 351 0.00 { 22 }Hand 2: 24.634% 24.63% 00.00% 1818 0.00 { Ad6h }Hand 3: 24.268% 24.27% 00.00% 1791 0.00 { QQ


#48 hartman72

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Posted 08 April 2011 - 03:19 PM

Thanks. Not as good as I thought but I'm still calling due to our stack and what we have put in

#49 Milton

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 08:17 AM

How do you think we're dead over 50% of the time here? Have you played live at these limits?UTG idiot is never shoving with the nuts for that much over the $40.UTG+1 tight/passive isn't tank-calling with the nuts. The only flush combination he's holding here is KdJd, and he's probably not tank-calling with that vs. the idiot either. He might show up with Jd9d, but that's a lot more rare for those types.LP isn't tank-calling with the nuts/king high flush either. So that leaves the only combo as Jd9d.So basically the UTG guy only has 3 hands that beat us, UTG+1 is holding 1 (maybe 2), LP is holding 1.Now when you consider the massive amount of flush draw combinations, sets, AA/KK for the idiot, AdAx/AdQx, lower flushes, and how often we're a favorite over all 3 hands, it's easy to call.Not to mention, if we're facing multiple sets, that only improves the odds of our hand holding up. Or facing a draw and a lower flush. Having the UTG idiot in the hand is EXACTLY what makes this hand profitable. His wide range is what presents more scenarios in which we're ahead. Not to mention the extra $160 he adds to the pot to give us better odds.But if you disagree, how about you give me your approximation of the ranges. Or are you just going by feel?

#50 trystero

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 12:58 PM

how can y'all still be arguing over this

#51 hartman72

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 02:26 PM

View Posttrystero, on Saturday, April 9th, 2011, 1:58 PM, said:

how can y'all still be arguing over this
Are you going to contribute to this thread?

#52 KingJames

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 02:56 PM

^^^^^^^

View Posttrystero, on Saturday, April 9th, 2011, 2:58 PM, said:

how can y'all still be arguing over this
Consider this a pre-warning for not providing any strategic insight in a post in the strat forum, outside of the c-thread, baw, etc12 more strikes and I ban you for a day, glglTBH, since there is a large discrepancy between the ranges you all think they will be getting it in with, it doesn't matter... I will add that a lot of lolive nl players will be limping those AXs and KXs hands a lot and we are going to be dead here a good amount of the time... but when we are going allin with multiway, we don't need to be good very often. Doubt I fold but vs some villains/tables you can't get it in good in this spot
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#53 trystero

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 03:10 PM

View Posthartman72, on Saturday, April 9th, 2011, 6:26 PM, said:

Are you going to contribute to this thread?
nah, think I'll just sit back and watch you and everyone else argue about this hand ad nauseum.10 strikes to go

#54 hartman72

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 04:00 PM

Sorry for debating an interesting NLHE cash hand in a NLHE CASH THREAD. Didn't know the answer was black and white.

#55 trystero

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 04:09 PM

you shouldn't be apologizing to me; apologize to James, because he's the moderator.

#56 hartman72

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 04:17 PM

When James makes useless posts to a hand that I have argued about....then yes I'll "apologize" to him

#57 BaseJester

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 04:59 PM

I'm not saying this is typical, but the hero can certainly be in much better shape against some equally plausible hands.Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 820 games 0.005 secs 164,000 games/secBoard: Qd 7d 2dDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 75.854% 75.85% 00.00% 622 0.00 { Td8d }Hand 1: 21.220% 21.22% 00.00% 174 0.00 { AdQs }Hand 2: 02.805% 02.80% 00.00% 23 0.00 { KdKs }Hand 3: 00.122% 00.12% 00.00% 1 0.00 { 6d5d }
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#58 KingJames

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 05:15 PM

one of these dude's has a set tho
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#59 BaseJester

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 05:20 PM

View PostKingJames, on Saturday, April 9th, 2011, 9:15 PM, said:

one of these dude's has a set tho
In the actual hand, yes, but it doesn't have to be the case. Are you saying they couldn't have the hands I listed?
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#60 KingJames

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Posted 09 April 2011 - 05:24 PM

View PostBaseJester, on Saturday, April 9th, 2011, 7:20 PM, said:

In the actual hand, yes, but it doesn't have to be the case. Are you saying they couldn't have the hands I listed?
Oh no, you're ranges are entirely possible.But like that's the thing. We can't pinpoint their exact ranges, and not everyone will agree on the ranges, so it's kind of silly.I personally think the best is; 1 villain has a set, one had the naked Ad and one has tp or something. The times you're over-flushed or you over-flush someone prob comes out to be a little bit in villains favor as I think they have more AXdd hands than 65dd hands in general, so you take the set, Ad, tp range, remove a little eq and then look at the pot odds. It's a math problem with a subjective variable being what kind of ranges these dudes are getting it in with.
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