81 replies to this topic

[Pot Odds RAC]

Subtitle should be: "Strange Post Flop ActionPlaying from the button. I've been pretty Tight Aggressive, not having a great night. Stack Sizes approximateButton: Hero $160UTG: $160 Terrible Player. Overplays when he hits any part of the flopUTG+1: $160 Nitty old manLate Position (LP): $400 Solid Tight Middle Aged WomanPreflop:All of the Villains call to me and I also flat call with 10 8 :diamond:Flop:Q 7 2 :diamond:Check to LP who bets $20Hero Minraise to $40UTG insta shoves all-inUTG+1 Tank Calls all-inLP Tanks for a few minutes and Also Eventually CallsHero tanks...?I think am getting good $ to call. But something feels wrong. I put UTG on a bigger Flush, and LP on a Flopped set. No idea what the nitty old man hasI only have one way to win this hand and a ton of ways to lose it. I could be behind already and nothing left to Imply.

[donk4life]

You also could be drawing dead, which is almost certainly the case here. This is an easy fold.edit: I guess it's not necessarily an easy fold, but when a nitty old man calls an all in, and then a somewhat nitty woman calls two all ins, I just can't ever see us having the best hand here.

[Pot Odds RAC]

donk4life, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 8:38 AM, said:

You also could be drawing dead, which is almost certainly the case here. This is an easy fold.edit: I guess it's not necessarily an easy fold, but when a nitty old man calls an all in, and then a somewhat nitty woman calls two all ins, I just can't ever see us having the best hand here.

Yeah. For some reason I was more concerned about UTG. And getting better than 3:1 on my money made me think a little. Certainly the fact that two nitty players had already called was a good indication to me that I should get off the hand.

[hartman72]

I disagree that this is an easy fold. Only 3 hands beat you, and any of the three players could easily have Ad Q, Kd Q, Q 7, 77, 22, any naked Ad or even Kd, or a smaller flush. I understand only one of them needs to have a better hand than you, but this is still a good spot. If you were deeper, I'd suggest a fold here. But we only have 80 BBs and this is a great position to ~quadruple up. If we're beat, just reload or accept your bad night and leave.

[Pot Odds RAC]

You guys have pretty much summed up the Devil on my Left Shoulder and the Angel on my Right. Even after making my decision I couldn't quit the internal debate. It was especially difficult to separate out the Results Based Thinking.

[SuperJon]

People love to limp suited aces and even most suited kings in these games.I'm a station, but I don't see how this is anything other than a fold here with 3 other people calling already.I mean they can't all be calling with the naked Ad.

[hartman72]

SuperJon, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 9:45 AM, said:

People love to limp suited aces and even most suited kings in these games.I'm a station, but I don't see how this is anything other than a fold here with 3 other people calling already.I mean they can't all be calling with the naked Ad.

No, but one can. One can have 2 pair, and one can have a pair/kd. If I am playing with 80 BBs and folding the third nuts when I think I have a ~40 to 50% chance of quadrupling up, there's no point in me playing. In a 1/2 action game, I am good here half the time.

[SuperJon]

hartman72, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 1:57 PM, said:

No, but one can. One can have 2 pair, and one can have a pair/kd. If I am playing with 80 BBs and folding the third nuts when I think I have a ~40 to 50% chance of quadrupling up, there's no point in me playing. In a 1/2 action game, I am good here half the time.

Can't be too many combos of 2 pair considering the board is Q72, and as bad as people play in these games, I doubt they'll be stacking off with 2 pair on a 3 flush board. I also don't think someone is going to put in all their money with the Kd drawing to the 2nd nuts.

[hartman72]

People at 1/2 will def limp with Q2hh or Q7hh and will def stack off on a 3 flush board. At least where I play

[hartman72]

Pot Odds RAC, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 9:41 AM, said:

You guys have pretty much summed up the Devil on my Left Shoulder and the Angel on my Right. Even after making my decision I couldn't quit the internal debate. It was especially difficult to separate out the Results Based Thinking.

Am I the devil?

[Pot Odds RAC]

hartman72, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 2:10 PM, said:

Am I the devil?

LOL, yeah, in this case you're the voice of temptation.I'll spoiler the results if anyone is interested...

Spoiler

I Tanked for a bit but eventually found the "Fold Button"UTG Showed Pocket DeucesNitty Old Man Showed A XNitty Woman showed QQBoard ran out 4 4 :club:So, I currently had the best hand. I second guessed myself regarding whether it was the correct Fold at the time. Yeah it turned out that I would have been 4th best (guy to my left claimed he folded pocket 4s and would have hit Quads). Results indicate it was a good laydown, but I was really trying to not give in to results based thinking.

Thanks for the analysis guys.

[hartman72]

That is why I love 1/2 so much. QQ lets u see a flop for 1 BB then is willing to stack on a 3 diamond board.

[XXEddie]

I'm folding. I think you need to consider that even though you're getting awesome odds you're drawing dead if you're beat, and even if you up against a set/AdXx/2 pair combos, you're still not a big favorite to win.After running the number looking at results villain is....

Spoiler

46% to win.

So you have to calculate how often you'll be drawing dead vs the fact that if you are ahead you're winning XX% of the time. I don't think it's easy either way, but I think folding is better by a bit.

[XXEddie]

hartman72, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 11:57 AM, said:

No, but one can. One can have 2 pair, and one can have a pair/kd. If I am playing with 80 BBs and folding the third nuts when I think I have a ~40 to 50% chance of quadrupling up, there's no point in me playing. In a 1/2 action game, I am good here half the time.

I highly doubt anybody has Kd/Pair considering the reads OP has. Even for UTG it would be a stretch with his instashove. I highly doubt the nitty old man or the decent lady is shoving with Kd/pair here. The bolded is just bad, imo. I hate the 'well I played this hand to make X hand so I can't fold now' move. I've folded plenty of sets on dry boards and low flushes on unpaired board due to the way the hand has played out. You don't close your eyes and say 'well I played 22 to flop a set/56s to flop a flush so I can't possibly fold.You do NOT have a 40-50% to quad up. Even if you're good here have the time, and you're only winning 40-50%(If that's what you meant) of the time when ahead. That means you're only winning 20-25% of the time. Given the pot odds it could be correct to call but it's close.

hartman72, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 12:06 PM, said:

People at 1/2 will def limp with Q2hh or Q7hh and will def stack off on a 3 flush board. At least where I play

Arguably. Even at the worst table you can find I don't more than 3 people will be that loose. Again, giving reads only UTG could possibly have a hand like that.

hartman72, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 12:44 PM, said:

That is why I love 1/2 so much. QQ lets u see a flop for 1 BB then is willing to stack on a 3 diamond board.

Given all the money in the pot and how she has to be drawing semi-live if behind folding is bad. I like her call better than if Hero calls. Again. I think it's reallllllly close. Hands like this I'd rather not be informed what happens after I fold/call. Most big hands I play I always replay them afterwards trying to figure out if I indeed made the right play, and having the results in your mind can only complicate that process.

[Pot Odds RAC]

hartman72, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 2:44 PM, said:

That is why I love 1/2 so much. QQ lets u see a flop for 1 BB then is willing to stack on a 3 diamond board.

The best part is she won, and that is all she'll ever remember.Later in the session I had a big hand against her where I had Aces. I check raised her when I flopped my set. She called my Shove with a Flush Draw. I had a sweat when she hit the Flush on the Turn, but the Poker Gods were just horsing around and Paired the Board on the River.

XXEddie, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 2:59 PM, said:

Again. I think it's reallllllly close. Hands like this I'd rather not be informed what happens after I fold/call. Most big hands I play I always replay them afterwards trying to figure out if I indeed made the right play, and having the results in your mind can only complicate that process.

I agree. It was so hard not to be results oriented in my thinking about this hand. I believe in retrospect I did OK in my Real Time Analysis.

[hartman72]

XXEddie, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 11:59 AM, said:

I highly doubt anybody has Kd/Pair considering the reads OP has. Even for UTG it would be a stretch with his instashove. I highly doubt the nitty old man or the decent lady is shoving with Kd/pair here. The bolded is just bad, imo. I hate the 'well I played this hand to make X hand so I can't fold now' move. I've folded plenty of sets on dry boards and low flushes on unpaired board due to the way the hand has played out. You don't close your eyes and say 'well I played 22 to flop a set/56s to flop a flush so I can't possibly fold.You do NOT have a 40-50% to quad up. Even if you're good here have the time, and you're only winning 40-50%(If that's what you meant) of the time when ahead. That means you're only winning 20-25% of the time. Given the pot odds it could be correct to call but it's close. Arguably. Even at the worst table you can find I don't more than 3 people will be that loose. Again, giving reads only UTG could possibly have a hand like that. Given all the money in the pot and how she has to be drawing semi-live if behind folding is bad. I like her call better than if Hero calls. Again. I think it's reallllllly close. Hands like this I'd rather not be informed what happens after I fold/call. Most big hands I play I always replay them afterwards trying to figure out if I indeed made the right play, and having the results in your mind can only complicate that process.

That's not what I'm implying. I'm the only one that has mentioned how we aren't really deep at all. What I am saying...Is that if I flop the 3rd nuts in a LIVE 1/2 game with 80 BBs I can find very good reason to call here. Opponents just aren't that good often enough to lay this hand down in this situation.

[rrumsey]

3 all ins on this board, yah ditch it and feel good about it.

[Ninja Ace]

hartman72, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 10:44 AM, said:

That is why I love 1/2 so much. QQ lets u see a flop for 1 BB then is willing to stack on a 3 diamond board.

I'd much rather have top set than hero's hand in this spot...

hartman72, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2011, 12:05 PM, said:

That's not what I'm implying. I'm the only one that has mentioned how we aren't really deep at all. What I am saying...Is that if I flop the 3rd nuts in a LIVE 1/2 game with 80 BBs I can find very good reason to call here. Opponents just aren't that good often enough to lay this hand down in this situation.

While indeed 1/2 live is loose, it's mostly loose PASSIVE. When was the last time you saw a 4bet pre in a 1/2 live game that wasn't aces?And a 4bet pre isn't nearly as scary as a flop cold check-3bet allin let alone with a coldcall behind... good jebus fold. The results shown are the absolute best case scenario and we still don't have a boatload of equity.

[hartman72]

Isn't poker situational? Why am I the only one that thinks this is a spot to call? We started the hand with 160, put 25 % of our stack in and eveyone here says "lol fold immediately"While 1/2 is extremely passive preflop, people do some very stupid things post flop. You've never stacked anyone with 56 when someone decides to limp with KK and the flop is 10 6 6? At this level, people love stacking off post flop with overpairs, straights when a flush is out, sets when flushes are out, 2 pair when a straight or flush is out etc etc.

[XXEddie]

hartman72, on Monday, April 4th, 2011, 7:06 AM, said:

Isn't poker situational? Why am I the only one that thinks this is a spot to call? We started the hand with 160, put 25 % of our stack in and eveyone here says "lol fold immediately"While 1/2 is extremely passive preflop, people do some very stupid things post flop. You've never stacked anyone with 56 when someone decides to limp with KK and the flop is 10 6 6? At this level, people love stacking off post flop with overpairs, straights when a flush is out, sets when flushes are out, 2 pair when a straight or flush is out etc etc.

My goodness, arrogant much? You're taking a shot at people saying 'lol fold' when you're sitting there saying 'lol obv snapcall'Given reads on villains I highly doubt they are stacking off with AA or KK with no diamond. There are no straights on board or even straight draws, sets are possible, and 2 pair is unlikely again considering reads. You know what else people love to stack off with on boards like this? Flushes. Yes. People at 1/2 generally suck. However that's all I am getting from your responses. 1/2 players suck so blah blah blah. While all three players may be terrible, I don't see how the 'Nitty old man' and the 'solid tight' woman are easily stacking off with worse as you're so quick to assume. Again, best case scenario is you're facing Ax, set and lower flush. I'm not throwing in two pair because it's only possibly from the UTG donk and even then it's rare. Also given reads I don't think either nitty player has a lower flush. Even 65dd and 54dd are stretches for them. And with the nitty woman seemingly decent I don't see her stacking off with those hands. So let's say UTG donk shows 65dd, Nitty man has AxQd and woman has 22. You're still only 50% to win.So it's 50% the rare times when we are ahead and .01% the likely times when we are behind. Yes, your pot odds are so huge, but I'm not convinced they are big enough.