yah im attempting to invoke some baluga here ( and most things but yah he does a great job at explaining preflop).
and i see your point. my hope is honestly that he catches something on the turn. im not sure what i do on the turn without reads tbh yet. im still trying to process that.
yah ideally im checking, unless we just have a super read that he just isnt ever going to bite. but seeing how we dont know based of the OP i just cant assume anything, which makes this hard to play in a total vacuum.
seeing how you clearly picked up on me attempting to be a baluga follower, how do you feel about this hand? and would you still be taking this line with a player that doesnt bluff past the flop? what reads will influence your turn play here?
and seriously i do love this hand came up and i get a chance to try and apply things im playing around with in my head. i am NOT saying i know what im try to say here very well, im mostly attempting to work the process myself.
Since there is an ace on the flop, there isn't any card that can peel on the turn that is going to give him a second best hand that would want to put more money into the pot.
eg, If he has KQ and turn is Qd, he isn't going to think you are donk betting 9x here for value. He also isn't going to check behind and call a river bet, he will just check twice.
However there is 1-2 outs for a lot of his pocket pairs. Also if he does have AA, then we have put our money into the pot with 18% ev instead of 28% ev. So if his revolver only has 1 shell, then c/r flop is the play.
I posted my thoughts above.
Didn't post my thoughts about pre flop though.
Like you said
IF he is 3betting wide and
IF he has a depolarized with AJ, AQ, KJ, KQ type hand and
IF he stacks off with those hands post flop, THEN I like the call pre flop.
We have just made 3 BIG assumptions though.
AK post flop will not make a pair 2/3 of the time. We also don't know anything about the villain so I think it will be very hard to play the hand profitably in those situations.
Flop comes , 3c4s5s, J35r, 964r, XXX He cbets. Ok now what. Are we going to c/c here and hope he shuts down, we going to c/c twice and hope he doesn't fire bluff river and hasn't been bluffing us with a small pocket pair. Are we going to check/raise committing 22-30bb on another hunch (that he won't bluff shove light or float). Are we going to c/f and hope that he commits enough money when he has AJ, AQ, KJ, KQ on Axx Kxx flops that we can make calling pre and folding 2/3 the time a profitable play (assuming he is depolarized to begin with).
We win money in poker by making less mistakes then our opponents. Without information we don't know what the mistake is here.
Until we gather reads, 4betting preflop will let us to realise our equity and reduce our potential for making mistakes.