23 replies to this topic

[pezeveng]

I was wondering for the proline football pools if there are 13 games being played I can box 4 of them which would cost me $80 a tix.

There are 9 games left how many possible outcomes are there with 9 games?

[Zach6668]

If I'm understanding it right, and note I'm a little rusty, but each game has 2 possible outcomes, so I think it'd be 2^9, which is 512 different outcomes, for the remaining 9 games.

[serge]

If I'm understanding it right, and note I'm a little rusty, but each game has 2 possible outcomes, so I think it'd be 2^9, which is 512 different outcomes, for the remaining 9 games.

This is technically correct i believe..However there are possibilities of ties, remote as that is..Not sure how that affects the numbers.

[Zach6668]

Oh, it's regulation ties? That's gay. If you include that, it's 3^9 of possible outcomes, which is 19683... obviously it's only an unbiased account of the number of outcomes, not taking into account the probability of each.

[serge]

Oh, it's regulation ties? That's gay. If you include that, it's 3^9 of possible outcomes, which is 19683... obviously it's only an unbiased account of the number of outcomes, not taking into account the probability of each.

I am not positive to be honest of the proline rules..but it might be..

[pezeveng]

So I would have to play 512 tix at $80 a pop which would cost $40,960.

Already this year in week 4 I think had 1 winner for $725,000 winner and last week there was 15 winners at $50,632.

I need to put together a syndicate of investors.

Thanks Zach I suck at math.

[pezeveng]

I am not positive to be honest of the proline rules..but it might be..

If its a tie the lower ranked team wins. See soccer for that one.

[pezeveng]

Hockey would be cheaper to hit but the payouts suck. 10 games box four would leave 6.

[Zach6668]

So I would have to play 512 tix at $80 a pop which would cost $40,960.

Already this year in week 4 I think had 1 winner for $725,000 winner and last week there was 15 winners at $50,632.

I need to put together a syndicate of investors.

Thanks Zach I suck at math.

Well. I don't know. I didn't factor in how many tickets it would take to box any of those, since I'm not entirely sure about what boxing is.

[pezeveng]

Well. I don't know. I didn't factor in how many tickets it would take to box any of those, since I'm not entirely sure about what boxing is.

Iam really bad at explaining things especially on the net but I will try.

There are 13 football games, each game only has 2 outcomes V or H. Each ticket will cost you $5 so the math would be 13^2 would equal whatever times $5 per ticket.

Pro line allows you to box up to 4 games meaning you can select V and H for those games, but it costs $80 a ticket to do it this way. So I would box games 10, 11, 12, and 13. Meaning those games are taken care of so now I have 9 remaining games.

Does that help?

[Zach6668]

Would you be boxing 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, 6, 7, 8 as well? I don't really know what your entire goal here is. It seems to me that you want to create a situation where you are guaranteed to win.

[serge]

Would you be boxing 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, 6, 7, 8 as well? I don't really know what your entire goal here is. It seems to me that you want to create a situation where you are guaranteed to win.

he can box 4 games...So essentially doesnt matter what the outcomes are..Boxing 8 games would be super expensive..

in a 13 game week, boxing 4 games means he only has to get the other 9 right..

[MapleLeafs]

In ProPicks, you have to pick the outright winner (no spread) in each game. He wants to guarantee he has a winning ticket by picking every possible combination of picks.

Take this Sunday's schedule:

1 NYJ DET
2 MIA BAL
3 NE CLE
4 CHI BUF
5 TB ATL
6 NWO CAR
7 ARI MIN
8 SD HOU
9 NYG SEA
10 IND PHI
11 KC OAK
12 DAL GB
13 PIT CIN

It costs $5 to play 1 ticket. If you "box" 1 game, it costs you $10 and you're essentially picking 2 identical tickets. Only 1 game will be different. So you would be picking the same teams to win in games 1-12, but on ticket 1 you would pick Pittsburgh, and on ticket 2 you would pick Cincinnati. That game is wiped off the board and you only need to get 12 games right.

If you box 2 games, it costs $20, as you're essentially playing 4 different tickets. 1-11 are identical picks, on ticket 1 you pick Dallas and Pittsburgh, on ticket 2 you pick Dallas and Cincinnati, on ticket 3 you pick Green Bay and Pittsburgh, and on ticket 4 you pick Green Bay and Cincinnati.

Boxing 3 games costs $40 and is 8 different tickets. 4 boxed games costs $80 and is the max you can do..... and you get the idea. I think.

So to cover every outcome on a 13 game week:

Box 1 game: $10
Box 2 games: $20
Box 3 games: $40
Box 4 games: $80
Box 5 games: $160
Box 6 games: $320
Box 7 games: $640
Box 8 games: $1280
Box 9 games: $2560
Box 10 games: $5120
Box 11 games: $10240
Box 12 games: $20480
Box 13 games: $40960 (You'd have the winner)

The prize pool is usually around $750K and is split evenly among all winning tickets. It ranges from 1 winner, to people winning less than $1000.

Good luck.

[Babying]

Very good calculation.

I think the time spent marking all the sheet down would be a killer.

[pezeveng]

I found someone who was ahead of me in this. His only problem was he wasn't going to box his top four plays and invest $5000 each week.

If you check out page 6 of the thread the guy would have had the $750,000 winner if he invested the extra $35,000.



money to burn

[gruven]

Some guys in the US figured this out for a powerball draw that was like 75 million. They calculated that they could buy all the possible number combos and still profit 30 million or something. The problem they had was that, even with a big team working on it, they couldnt fill out, and then buy all the tickets in time. THEN they had the problem of they hadn't thought of a system to check the numbers. They had to do it by hand, and they ended up being able to claim only about half their prizes (and they missed the grand prize) because there was a one year limit to claim the bigger prizes and thirty days to claim the smaller ones....

[pezeveng]

Some guys in the US figured this out for a powerball draw that was like 75 million. They calculated that they could buy all the possible number combos and still profit 30 million or something. The problem they had was that, even with a big team working on it, they couldnt fill out, and then buy all the tickets in time. THEN they had the problem of they hadn't thought of a system to check the numbers. They had to do it by hand, and they ended up being able to claim only about half their prizes (and they missed the grand prize) because there was a one year limit to claim the bigger prizes and thirty days to claim the smaller ones....

Mine is a bit easier only 512 tickets. 30 days to cash in a prize is stupid.

[strategy]

surely you could just get a barcode scanner and scan all the numbers into a database, give it some rules for what constitutes a winning ticket when you do the search for the winning number. physically retrieving the winners would be tough if you weren't good about keeping things in order after you purchased all the numbers.

hilarious to think about people spending that much money without some basic planning for the most likely scenario.

[MapleLeafs]

I found someone who was ahead of me in this. His only problem was he wasn't going to box his top four plays and invest $5000 each week.

If you check out page 6 of the thread the guy would have had the $750,000 winner if he invested the extra $35,000.



money to burn

A couple reasons why no regular joe would do it. First is, yeah you're assured to have a winning ticket but there's a good chance the prize is less then the money you'd need to invest on a given week. I'd say you lose money each week more then half the time. All you'd need is 3 weeks where you win yourself though and your year is probably covered.

Second, half of the weeks are 16 games which brings your investment up to roughly $320K per week. Third, the time you'd need to invest to actually fill out all the tickets, and go to the lottery store and play them would be nuts. Like you said, you'd definitely need a team.

It would be interesting to see someone like Daniel do this each week and see how much you win/lose at the end of the year.

[gruven]

surely you could just get a barcode scanner and scan all the numbers into a database, give it some rules for what constitutes a winning ticket when you do the search for the winning number. physically retrieving the winners would be tough if you weren't good about keeping things in order after you purchased all the numbers.

hilarious to think about people spending that much money without some basic planning for the most likely scenario.

Yeah, if I remember the story right, they just had boxes and boxes and boxes of tickets in a basement. Every ticket had to be manually checked..