3 replies to this topic

[bluff2much]

I thought I would pots these just for fun...called all in AA against AJ...I knew i should have foldedNo help to him on the flop...he catches runner runner J's. I think i was a 98% favorite after the flop but could be wrong tho.Very next hand I have J"s, but I'm severely short stacked so there was like 6 callers. The flop comes blanks...everyone checks...the turn comes 3...everyone checks....the river comes 3.... dude caught runner runner 3's.. all you can do is laugh. It was cool though cause the entire table couldn't believe it.The other day I got knocked out of a tournament...This isn't a bad beat cause i couldn't have played differently. UTG i raise 3 times BB with dueces...(maybe I can steal it on the flop). right off the bat there is a reraise, and then 4 callers. So i went to stealing to "maybe I'll catch a deuce, so i called." Well Unfortunately I caught a Deuce....and the flop is 6 hi...so i think i'm good. I think i'm up against at least QQ's so if i get it all in he will call. Well I got all in and AA called..then kk called...then 77 called....then KJ called ( ihave no idea what he was thinking as he had no draw no pair)... oops... Mr. 77 hits a 7 and wins. 4 callers...theres no way I can avoid the many cards....lolI out drew th A's and had the best hand...if i didn't hit a 2 i probably would have check folded...especially w/ two other callers.

[Makata]

bluff2much said:

Very next hand I have J"s, but I'm severely short stacked so there was like 6 callers. The flop comes blanks...everyone checks...the turn comes 3...everyone checks....the river comes 3.... dude caught runner runner 3's.. all you can do is laugh. It was cool though cause the entire table couldn't believe it.

Going to assume that you were all in PF and a 3 managed to call. If you just checked all streets it's not a bad beat, but bad play.

Quote

UTG i raise 3 times BB with dueces...(maybe I can steal it on the flop). right off the bat there is a reraise, and then 4 callers. So i went to stealing to "maybe I'll catch a deuce, so i called."

This is attrocious. Preflop you're investing 3 BB to win 1.5 BB. If anyone but the blinds call you're out of position and the 82% of the time when you don't flop a set you are going to have to fold to any aggression, especially if multiway. Even with that said if you are confident enough with your post flop play to know when your opps have missed then the raise can make sense. But assuming the reraise was substantial enough, I can't see this call as being correct. You said yourself you're almost possitive you're up against a higher PP so unless you flop your set (1 in 8) and your hand holds up (3 in 4 at best multiway, probably lower) you're just spewing.Hardly see that as a beat, TBH.

[otnemem]

Makata said:

If anyone but the blinds call you're out of position and the 82% of the time when you don't flop a set you are going to have to fold to any aggression, especially if multiway.

Your odds of flopping a set are much worse than this (more like 9-1 against), making this raise even more atrocious. And how does it not become a bad beat because you couldn't have played it differently. First of all, you could have played it differently - by folding before the flop. Secondly, doesn't that usually make something more of a bad beat? When you get all the money in and get unlucky?

[Makata]

otnemem said:

Makata said:

If anyone but the blinds call you're out of position and the 82% of the time when you don't flop a set you are going to have to fold to any aggression, especially if multiway.

Your odds of flopping a set are much worse than this (more like 9-1 against), making this raise even more atrocious. And how does it not become a bad beat because you couldn't have played it differently. First of all, you could have played it differently - by folding before the flop. Secondly, doesn't that usually make something more of a bad beat? When you get all the money in and get unlucky?

You're right, I fudged the numbers slightly. You're about a 20% chance to hit set by river, which is 5 cards. 20 * (3/5) = 12% chance to flop it (just did the actual math, about 13% so it's relatively accurate). Added 2 to 80 instead of subtracting 2 from 90. Meant 88%.