67 replies to this topic

[Kalf]

I just read an article in Player magazine entitled "The Smartest Thing I Ever Saw at a Poker Table" that described a guy who folded AA after the 3 players in front of him went all- in and had him covered. The percentages were this, according to the article- the AA was the favored hand, at about 40% to 30% to 15 and 15, or something like that, but explained that that stat was misleading. Even though they were favored INDIVIDUALLY against the other hands, AA was going to lose that pot 60% of the time. Because you're not playing the AA against each of those hands, you're playing AA against ALL of those hands. Think about it this way- Out of four hands, where all 5 board cards will be exposed because all the chips are in, how often is ONE PAIR going to win? AA is a terrible drawing hand, and you won't hit trips very often, so you are pretty much deadlocked into one pair. In the case at hand, a flush beat a straight on the river, and AA wouldve come in third. The moral of the story was to avoid playing big pairs against multiple opponents.

[dna4ever]

i dont know the statistics, but I know I would rather play a high suited connector, TJ+ in a 5+ way flop then I would a pocket pair. I have never folded AA in my life and dont see myself doing it.

[LukeHeinz]

I completely disagree unless there is significant money difference or something else you didn't mention...In tournament poker you have to take risks and being a 2.5 to 1 to win with the pot laying you 3 to 1 is a great way to build a monster stack. Just my opinion, Luke

[thef0x]

The thing is, there are already 3 other people in the hand with 3 different hands, AT LEAST 2 THAT ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO CALL ALL IN WITH (the first might've been a bluff), that you have to play against. Someone can hit a straight or flush REAL easy, even though the aces are higher on the odds.

[Smasharoo]

No one's confused about the odds.The only argument for not calling here is that you'll outpley most other players after the flop and you can wait for better opportunities.In a cash game only a moron would fold here.Think about it this way- Out of four hands, where all 5 board cards will be exposed because all the chips are in, how often is ONE PAIR going to win? A lot actually, and you're going to hit a set 20% of the time and that's going to hold up quite a bit.Overall I'd say AA will win here...about 40% of the time./sigh Sometimes I feel guilty because it's too easy.

[delinquent00]

Quote from T.J. Cloutier himself, AA is the only hand you have to play. I agree, lay down cowboys or big slick but you gotta play bullets. Only hand in a tournament worth getting busted over.

[Kalf]

you just said it all- AA will win, ONLY 40% of the time.you want to risk your tourney life on a situation where you will lose 60% of the time?I'm not saying fold AA very often. Only in this kinda situation, where you'd be forced to play it against several opponents all the way through the river.

[Foulky]

Everyone always talks about pot odds well how is that the correct play laying down Aces? I mean the pot is laying him 3-1 and he is only a 3-2 dog since he wins 40% of the time. If this guy is playing tournament poker he must be playing just to finish in the money or make a higher payout jump, but he isn't playing to win. I cannot say that i blame him if this is his motive just trying to make the money or whatever, but if you're playing to WIN the tournament this cannot be the right play.

[wrto4556]

That's a very good example of when to fold AA. I have heard and participated in many arguements about this: "Would you ever fold AA pre-flop?" It's obvious the answer is yes. This example is a really good example of why.Althought I can't think of a time where AA isn't worse that a mere a coin flip, a coin flip for all your money should be avoided if possible. Another example of when to fold a big hand is during the bubble. I was accused of cheating once when I folded AK pre-flop. I had a huge chip lead and was sitting at one of the two tables left, around 15 places paid, and I was bullying the whole table. I was in the small blind with AK when the button (a friend of mine) went all in. Being the big stack I should call, right? I didn't see it that way. Long story short, I mucked the hand and someone flipped it face up at the table! I know it's illegal but it was mostly friends and other poker freaks. If it were AA, I would have done the same. I could get more chips bullying everyone than busting out a few short stacks.There is plenty of times to fold AA before the flop in no-limit (cash or tournament).

[RikyRicardo]

If this was a ring game, and you didn't have the bank roll ok... maybe.. but in a ring I would risk it all.I have folded AA pre flop in tournaments. I was UTG and raised 1/2 my stack which was average, EP1,2, the Button, and SB all go all in. This a final table too.... I lay it down face up and say I fold... I was the laughing stock at the table, until the sets and a straight hit the board, and shook all thier hands as they all left the table, and thought I just made 5X more money. You need to look at what was guarenteed, worst case, I would have 3 really short stacks at my table, if the pot split 4 times, and best case the big stack would win (which is what happened) I would move up the money, now guarenteed 4th. I went on the win the tourny, as I got AA again, and called an EP allin, then pecked away at the big stack (3:1 chip lead) when we got heads up. I won it with 52s, and cracked his QQ, which he slow played, until I caught open ended straight flush draw... I sucked it out...But in a ring game, I am calling for sure...

[Smasharoo]

There is plenty of times to fold AA before the flop in no-limit (cash or tournament).Really?Could you describe when a good time would be in a cash game for me?

[rounderr]

play the opponentthis may be easier said than done.. but if you know your opponents well enough to know whether or not they'd be willing to gamble with 78 suited or low pocket pair than you would easily be better off.. because... the ideal hands you'd like to see your opponents with are hands ilke AK AQ (Ax) KK QQ or lower pocket pair.. any opponent w/ an A is pretty much a dog to win the hand... but suited connectors can be somethin to fear of with this kind of scenario.... folding AK suited would be a little harder though.. because AK is strong against more opponents. the only 2 hands that would be dangerous would be AA or even KK.. agree?

[Smasharoo]

folding AK suited would be a little harder though.. because AK is strong against more opponents. the only 2 hands that would be dangerous would be AA or even KK..agree?Um no. AA is much better multiway than AKs.

[Foulky]

It's nice to here all of these "great" laydown stories, and i guess sometimes in a very few occasions it is alright to laydown aces if and only if it is a multiway pot, and there is a huge payout jump in the tourney. But you have to be kidding me that AA should be layed down in any ring game. Ring games are all about playing "the numbers" and the numbers always tell you to play aces in big pots if you can. You can laydown AA after the flop, but never before. And are you actually suggesting that folding aces is the right play if our oppenent has 78 suited. Are you kidding? We're supposed to fold aces to 8 high now?!!! I don't think so!

[wrto4556]

I can't come up with a scenario where the pot odds do not justify a call in cash games. It looks almost impossible to fold pre-flop in a cash game.

[Kalf]

for the record, i was talking about a guy who was describing a VERY specific situation. but i've enjoyed the discussion.also, ring games and tournaments are quite different. in a ring game, you can gamble a little more often, because if you lose, you walk over to the ATM, get money, and play more if you have the $$ to do that.in a tournament, you lose those chips, and you're out. you can't get them back.

[koolromeo]

i think u should lay aa down in this situation if u have the chips to win the tournament. if your short stacked you call. try dealing out 4 hands including aa and flop the cards see who wins. i mean random hands like 10-6 or q-5. aa will lose much more than it wins. i'v e done it. people thought iwas was nuts laying down qq, 10-10, and 99 almost back to back before the flop. in fact they never invited me back. but then again i got the money in the end. tj cloutier also says you can't win the tournament if u get busted. he'd laay it down if he had to, daniel on the other hand, he can't lay down q-2 easily. lol.

[Foulky]

wrto4556 said:

I can't come up with a scenario where the pot odds do not justify a call in cash games. It looks almost impossible to fold pre-flop in a cash game.

Well put. My thoughts exactly but you did in less words. However i did figure out one time when I would always fold aces in a ring game. If my opponent(s) was holding a Smith & Wesson in his hand. Because a Smith & Wesson beats pocket aces any day. Unless you're JESUS!

[t]

This has been debated over and over again. This is not a good spot to get your money in. Sure you are a plurality to win against all the individual hands, but you are going to bust out on this hand 60 times out of 100. All of your opponents have you covered. This is a tournament...if you lose you are out, no rebuys, no asking the floor manager for more chips...you are out. Big pocket pairs are good in heads up or 3 way battles, but anything more than that you are in for some grim results. All of the people who say that you should call here must not play a lot of tournaments. Pot odds don't mean sh it when your tournament life is at stake and you are an underdog to the field. If you can avoid it you don't want to be an underdog when you put all your chips in the middle. This is a spot where you can fold and pick a different spot. If this was a cash game I would call because I would be getting the odds to call and could rebuy if I lost...but alas this is a tournament. There is 1 exception I would make in a tournament and that would be if I had approximiately 5xbb I would call here because if I win I quadruple up. With less than 5xbb I would probably get called by a big stack with a marginal hand and would probably be a similar underdog 60/40 or maybe even dominated. I might as well get my chips in the middle with the AA in this situation and try to quadruple up and give me a fighting chance to get a healthy stack. If I lose well I would feel comfortable with the decision I made. DISCLAIMER: This would only be a smart play if I'm not on the bubble. If I am I would fold and hope that a few of the people in the hand get busted out and I make the money.

[t]

LukeHeinz said:

I completely disagree unless there is significant money difference or something else you didn't mention...In tournament poker you have to take risks and being a 2.5 to 1 to win with the pot laying you 3 to 1 is a great way to build a monster stack.  Just my opinion, Luke

You are not a 2.5 to 1 favorite to win the pot. You are a 6 to 5 DOG. You lose if any of the field wins...