doudave said:
i dont see what the point of a raise is in this situation, if it was no limit its an obvious raise but in limit the raise will do absolutely nothing except pump the pot and make draws easier to call. your chance of winning at this point is like 30%. a raise will no make anyone go out becasue the they will be getting like 7 to 1 for their money. people are saying take control of the pot, kinda hard to do that with your position, never really figured out how you can take control with 7 guys behind u and in a limit game, like someone to explain that one to me.
This comes up like once a week, except the BB or SB hand is usually something a lot worse than AA (KQs, for example). I inevitably end up sitting in front of my computer, refreshing the thread every 10 seconds, vehemently defending the "raise, *******!" option, and getting a terrible migraine. Your preflop equity is so much better than every other player that NOT raising here is an absolutely terrible situation. You raise for value when you're putting in less money than the pot will pay you back from said raise over the longrun. Since we have the BEST POSSIBLE HAND, the pot has to pay us off better in the longrun than it will everyone else, so a raise here is automatic. You raise not to encourage folders, but because the more that goes into the pot, the better we fare. Assume you'll only win 30% of the time, here. What's the value of a raise with 7 likely callers? .3(8) [8 players, including ourselves multiplied by the chance we'll win] = 2.4 bets - 1 bet (cost of raise) = +1.4 betsHoly crap! That's lots of money! The thing is, though, we're probably closer to a 40% favorite (I believe I ran this exact simulation w/poker stove once, and it was like 38.6)! So, to not raise here is a horrendous, horrendous mistake, and to not do so is to fundamentally misunderstand the basic concepts of poker.Please, feel free to disagree so I can have another ridiculous argument.Ice