Posted 20 July 2012 - 06:35 AM
I'm late to the party.. but here's my two cents:There seems to be a lot of sentiment for the turn-call let him bluff the river strategy. There also seems to be a lot of sentiment that you lose value by shoving the turn because the villain would only call an all-in on the turn if he had 55, 66, 95, 96 or 78 (in other words, you are beat) or 9/good kicker (pretty unlikely).I think both of these views have some merit, but they are both flawed, and are in fact a bit contradictory. This makes the all-in on the turn (or at least some sort of raise) a better play IMO.It all comes down to whether you believe the villain is a good or a bad player. If you think he is a good player, then it is highly unlikely they will bluff the river. The only way a good player is likely to bluff this river is if a scare card comes out.. like a 7/8 or at least a 5/6. And in that situation (the 7/8 I mean), you have a really hard decision to make, which is something you want to avoid. I suppose in some scenarios a good player might try to represent a 9, but in modern day play, it seems so many players are willing to call down with over pairs, so I think good players are less likely to try and make this sort of bluff. So, if you think you are up against a good player, I think you need to discount the chances that they will bluff the river, so you can't count on getting value there.So, what if on the other hand, you think you are up against a bad player? In this case, yes, they may be willing to bluff the river if a blank hits. And yes, an all-in on your part, on the turn would lose this potential value. However, if they are a bad player, then they are also likely to call your all-in on the turn with all sorts of hands that are dominated. (overpairs, 56, 89, 79, etc.). So, by simply calling the turn, you are losing out on potential value here is as well.While the likelihood of a 7/8 hitting the river (the only two cards you really don't want to see) are pretty remote, I think the turn shove is a better play to protect against the pure gutshot. And I think the value you get from a bad player making a mistake against your shove more than makes up for the value you might lose from a bad player making an ill-timed river bluff.If you find yourself facing a made hand with your all-in shove, then at least you have 7 to 10 outs on the river. If the end result of this hand is that you go home (as I believe ended up happening), I'm fairly certain you would feel better having been coolered or missing out on those 7 to 10 outs than having been the recipient of a 4 outer from a player who played the hand poorly.