119 replies to this topic

[GeneralGeeWhiz]

new additions: de rosa, huff. I'm glad we didn't keep Winn. Not happy we kept Bengie.Record: 87-75, no playoffs. timmy will get cy young #3. discuss.

[Good Tom Hunting]

GeneralGeeWhiz, on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010, 11:36 AM, said:

new additions: de rosa, huff. I'm glad we didn't keep Winn. Not happy we kept Bengie.Record: 87-75, no playoffs. timmy will get cy young #3. discuss.

I think 87 wins is about right...and it could be enough to win the West. I really don't think that Timmy will get cy young #3...in fact, I hate to say this, but I think he will take a step back this year. I'm not saying he will be bad, but his whip will probably go back up to the 1.10-1.15 range. Definitely not happy with bringing Bengie back...I think it will be bad for the clubhouse and I was really looking forward to getting to see Posey play. Now Posey will probably start the season in the minors Definitely not too happy with the moves that Sabean made in the offseason. Too many utility guys who don't get on base very well and don't play good defense. Hopefully, the Giants' young hitters will continue to develop and our pitching carries us to the playoffs.

[GeneralGeeWhiz]

Good Tom Hunting, on Friday, February 19th, 2010, 1:26 AM, said:

I think 87 wins is about right...and it could be enough to win the West. I really don't think that Timmy will get cy young #3...in fact, I hate to say this, but I think he will take a step back this year. I'm not saying he will be bad, but his whip will probably go back up to the 1.10-1.15 range. Definitely not happy with bringing Bengie back...I think it will be bad for the clubhouse and I was really looking forward to getting to see Posey play. Now Posey will probably start the season in the minors Definitely not too happy with the moves that Sabean made in the offseason. Too many utility guys who don't get on base very well and don't play good defense. Hopefully, the Giants' young hitters will continue to develop and our pitching carries us to the playoffs.

I don't think we will make it, because I had the same hopes for last season. our pitching couldn't carry us in september and our bats went dead. we need that big hitter batting 3rd or cleanup or we wont be contenders, imo.

[Good Tom Hunting]

Best rotation in the league?SF Giants1. Tim Lincecum 2. Barry Zito 3. Matt Cain 4. Jonathan Sanchez 5. Todd Wellemeyer vs. NY Yankees1. CC Sabathia 2. A.J. Burnett 3. Andy Pettitte 4. Javier Vazquez 5. Phil Hughes

[Swift_Psycho]

Good Tom Hunting, on Monday, March 29th, 2010, 4:21 PM, said:

Best rotation in the league?SF Giants1. Tim Lincecum 2. Barry Zito 3. Matt Cain 4. Jonathan Sanchez 5. Todd Wellemeyer vs. NY Yankees1. CC Sabathia 2. A.J. Burnett 3. Andy Pettitte 4. Javier Vazquez 5. Phil Hughes

Wow. You really must be a HUGE Giants fan.

[Good Tom Hunting]

Swift_Psycho, on Monday, March 29th, 2010, 3:00 PM, said:

Wow. You really must be a HUGE Giants fan.

I take this as a statement that you think my claim is ridiculous, but I definitely think you can make a claim that the Giants staff is the best in the league. I think the Yanks rotation looks good on paper...but in reality it is not that good. Burnett is a big name with a big contract, but he has a career whip of 1.3. Vazquez is a workhorse, but is coming off a career year and moving back to the AL, where he has historically not pitched as well. Pettite is old and Hughes unproven. Sabathia is obviously an ace, but I'd take Lincecum over him any day. Also, the Giants have depth with Pucetas and Bumgarner waiting in the wings in case of any injuries.

[GeneralGeeWhiz]

Good Tom Hunting, on Monday, March 29th, 2010, 1:21 PM, said:

Best rotation in the league?SF Giants1. Tim Lincecum 2. Barry Zito 3. Matt Cain 4. Jonathan Sanchez 5. Todd Wellemeyer vs. NY Yankees1. CC Sabathia 2. A.J. Burnett 3. Andy Pettitte 4. Javier Vazquez 5. Phil Hughes

besides Lincecum and Cain our staff is mediocre at best. Yankees are more well rounded at all five. so yankees.

[Swift_Psycho]

GeneralGeeWhiz, on Monday, March 29th, 2010, 7:13 PM, said:

besides Lincecum and Cain our staff is mediocre at best. Yankees are more well rounded at all five. so yankees.

Agreed. For that reason, I'd take the Red Soxes' and Braves' rotations before the Giants' as well. And probably some others, but those couple are the ones that jumped out immediately off the top of my head.

[Tactical Bear]

SF Giants1. Tim Lincecum (2.82)2. Barry Zito (4.53)3. Matt Cain (3.87) 4. Jonathan Sanchez (4.15) NY Yankees1. CC Sabathia (3.51)2. A.J. Burnett (4.26) 3. Andy Pettitte (4.25) 4. Javier Vazquez (3.54)Red Sox1. Josh Beckett (3.72)2. Jon Lester (3.69)3. Clay Buchholz (4.61)4. John Lackey (4.18)Each team's top 4, followed by his Marcels FIP projection this year. I think #5 starters tend to muddy the issue, so I'm ignoring them. Marcels projections are just 3-year weighted averages and an aging adjustment. FIP is ERA, ignoring defense. There are no adjustments for league difficulty. Which of these rotations do you guys prefer? I think you could really make a convincing argument for all 3. Lincecum projects to be the best pitcher in the group, but the Giants have the weakest back end in Sanchez and Zito. Among the Yankees Top 4, there are no weak links, and they have a dominant number 1, but they've got a notoriously streaky and disappointing #4 in Vasquez and an aging Pettitte. The Red Sox don't have the established strength at the top like the Giants, and they've got more question marks than the Yankees, but they have the highest upside of any rotation. Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz all have top-of-the-rotation talent. Lester has already put it together at 26, but Buchholz has yet to see his stuff and minor league stats translate into big-league dominance. Thoughts?

[Swift_Psycho]

Tactical Bear, on Saturday, April 3rd, 2010, 4:44 PM, said:

SF Giants1. Tim Lincecum (2.82)2. Barry Zito (4.53)3. Matt Cain (3.87) 4. Jonathan Sanchez (4.15) NY Yankees1. CC Sabathia (3.51)2. A.J. Burnett (4.26) 3. Andy Pettitte (4.25) 4. Javier Vazquez (3.54)Red Sox1. Josh Beckett (3.72)2. Jon Lester (3.69)3. Clay Buchholz (4.61)4. John Lackey (4.18)Thoughts?

I'm not sure it's fair to remove starter #5 from the equation. One of the reasons why I said I liked the Red Sox and Braves more than the Giants was because I liked their prospective #5's better.In any case, the original question was "best rotation in the league?" which I took to mean what was the best rotation in absolute terms. If you make it more context dependent though and ask which rotation I prefer, I might have to think a little more, since a worse rotation on the Giants can do more damage (potentially) in the NL West than a better rotation from the AL East.And while I dislike it when people just dismiss sabermetrics and projections simply because they don't like what they see, I still have to say that I'm not sure I like Sanchez with an 4.15 FIP projection, and I think the 4.61 for Buchholz is just too high. I think during the second half of last year we were seeing the potential that scouts have been gushing over for Buchholz finally show up a little bit, and I expect more improvement with more experience.I'll admit though that the answer to the question of best rotation is probably a little less clear-cut than I originally thought, but I still think I'd stick with the Yanks and Sox rotations over the Giants.Edit: Just out of personal curiosity, I looked up other projections on Buchholz, and it seems like Marcel is pretty different from the rest (the others are much higher on Buchholz). Bill James has an FIP projection of 3.94, CHONE 4.27 and ZIPS 4.08. All of those projections also agree with Sanchez being pretty good as well, so maybe I just haven't seen Sanchez enough to fairly assess his skills.

[mrdannyg]

What about the Cards? BP has them giving up 40-50 less runs than any other team.

[Tactical Bear]

Swift_Psycho, on Saturday, April 3rd, 2010, 5:45 PM, said:

I'm not sure it's fair to remove starter #5 from the equation. One of the reasons why I said I liked the Red Sox and Braves more than the Giants was because I liked their prospective #5's better.In any case, the original question was "best rotation in the league?" which I took to mean what was the best rotation in absolute terms. If you make it more context dependent though and ask which rotation I prefer, I might have to think a little more, since a worse rotation on the Giants can do more damage (potentially) in the NL West than a better rotation from the AL East.And while I dislike it when people just dismiss sabermetrics and projections simply because they don't like what they see, I still have to say that I'm not sure I like Sanchez with an 4.15 FIP projection, and I think the 4.61 for Buchholz is just too high. I think during the second half of last year we were seeing the potential that scouts have been gushing over for Buchholz finally show up a little bit, and I expect more improvement with more experience.I'll admit though that the answer to the question of best rotation is probably a little less clear-cut than I originally thought, but I still think I'd stick with the Yanks and Sox rotations over the Giants.Edit: Just out of personal curiosity, I looked up other projections on Buchholz, and it seems like Marcel is pretty different from the rest (the others are much higher on Buchholz). Bill James has an FIP projection of 3.94, CHONE 4.27 and ZIPS 4.08. All of those projections also agree with Sanchez being pretty good as well, so maybe I just haven't seen Sanchez enough to fairly assess his skills.

First of all, I wasn't trying to make the question context dependent, but there just aren't any publicy available numbers that are totally context-neutral. ERA is league/park/luck dependent. FIP doesn't adjust or the differences in league difficulty, and projections are unadjusted. I was just throwing those numbers in there for reference, assuming people could do the league-adjustments themselves.Yeah, Marcel is named after the monkey from Friends, because it is so simple a trained monkey could do it. It takes almost nothing into account except previous performance and age. 4.61 is more likely to be pessimistic that optimistic, and I doubt Tom Tango would argue otherwise. 4-4.5 seems about right to me on Buch. I think Sanchez sucks, but he probably sucks in a "league-average" kind of way. I'm not sure whose rotation I'd take, but it probably wouldn't be the Giants', unless you really think Bumgardner is ready to make the leap or something. Gun to my head, I take the Sox rotation. I think Lester will finish Top 5 in the Cy Young this year.

[Swift_Psycho]

Tactical Bear, on Sunday, April 4th, 2010, 11:36 PM, said:

First of all, I wasn't trying to make the question context dependent, but there just aren't any publicy available numbers that are totally context-neutral. ERA is league/park/luck dependent. FIP doesn't adjust or the differences in league difficulty, and projections are unadjusted. I was just throwing those numbers in there for reference, assuming people could do the league-adjustments themselves.Yeah, Marcel is named after the monkey from Friends, because it is so simple a trained monkey could do it. It takes almost nothing into account except previous performance and age. 4.61 is more likely to be pessimistic that optimistic, and I doubt Tom Tango would argue otherwise. 4-4.5 seems about right to me on Buch. I think Sanchez sucks, but he probably sucks in a "league-average" kind of way. I'm not sure whose rotation I'd take, but it probably wouldn't be the Giants', unless you really think Bumgardner is ready to make the leap or something. Gun to my head, I take the Sox rotation. I think Lester will finish Top 5 in the Cy Young this year.

I should have been more clear, as I now realize re-reading my last post that I didn't say whether I thought 4.15 FIP for Sanchez was too stingy or generous. I thought it was too generous, and that Sanchez isn't quite that good. We seem to have the same assessment, in that I think he's overrated, but not in that he's terrible, just that he's probably closer to league average than being a star.Among the teams discussed, I'd be somewhat unsure of who to pick if we stuck with assessing just the top 4 starters. Overall though, I take the Sox rotation because of depth. Top 3 are aces on a lot of staffs, Buchholz could become another if he continues to improve on what we saw the second half of last year, Wakefield is Wakefield, and Dice-K could easily be quite good as well if he's able to recover decently and do his thing. I can't think of any other team that has that 6-man depth.

[GeneralGeeWhiz]

Swift_Psycho, on Saturday, April 3rd, 2010, 2:45 PM, said:

Edit: Just out of personal curiosity, I looked up other projections on Buchholz, and it seems like Marcel is pretty different from the rest (the others are much higher on Buchholz). Bill James has an FIP projection of 3.94, CHONE 4.27 and ZIPS 4.08. All of those projections also agree with Sanchez being pretty good as well, so maybe I just haven't seen Sanchez enough to fairly assess his skills.

sanchez goes from throwing a no hitter, to giving up 11 hits and 6 earned runs. you never know what you're going to get out of him, but when he is pitching well, he is just as dominant as lincecum or cain.

[GeneralGeeWhiz]

Barry Zito, please pitch like you did today for the rest of the season. ktybye.

[Good Tom Hunting]

Only undefeated team in baseball I'm going to start reading up on sabermetrics...

[Mills]

Tactical Bear, on Saturday, April 3rd, 2010, 12:44 PM, said:

SF Giants1. Tim Lincecum (2.82)2. Barry Zito (4.53)3. Matt Cain (3.87) 4. Jonathan Sanchez (4.15) NY Yankees1. CC Sabathia (3.51)2. A.J. Burnett (4.26) 3. Andy Pettitte (4.25) 4. Javier Vazquez (3.54)Red Sox1. Josh Beckett (3.72)2. Jon Lester (3.69)3. Clay Buchholz (4.61)4. John Lackey (4.18)Each team's top 4, followed by his Marcels FIP projection this year. I think #5 starters tend to muddy the issue, so I'm ignoring them. Marcels projections are just 3-year weighted averages and an aging adjustment. FIP is ERA, ignoring defense. There are no adjustments for league difficulty. Which of these rotations do you guys prefer? I think you could really make a convincing argument for all 3. Lincecum projects to be the best pitcher in the group, but the Giants have the weakest back end in Sanchez and Zito. Among the Yankees Top 4, there are no weak links, and they have a dominant number 1, but they've got a notoriously streaky and disappointing #4 in Vasquez and an aging Pettitte. The Red Sox don't have the established strength at the top like the Giants, and they've got more question marks than the Yankees, but they have the highest upside of any rotation. Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz all have top-of-the-rotation talent. Lester has already put it together at 26, but Buchholz has yet to see his stuff and minor league stats translate into big-league dominance. Thoughts?

WHAAA????Javier Vazquez 2005-2009IP:1062.2ERA: 4.09bb/9: 2.2k/9: 8.7ERA+ 110The only reason I posted ERA is because baseball refrence is the only place i know of to get sample sizes and dosen't have FIP, his career FIP is 3.84... What point of that is dissapointing? For melky cabrera and a minor league pitcher no less.

[Mills]

GeneralGeeWhiz, on Monday, April 5th, 2010, 12:39 PM, said:

sanchez goes from throwing a no hitter, to giving up 11 hits and 6 earned runs. you never know what you're going to get out of him, but when he is pitching well, he is just as dominant as lincecum or cain.

well he's a young strikeout pitcher, so guys like that always have upside... but those walks need to come way down. 4.3/ 9 and 4.8/9 respectively in his two full seasons... just brutal

[GeneralGeeWhiz]

5-1. lets keep it going.

[Tactical Bear]

Mills, on Saturday, April 10th, 2010, 9:38 PM, said:

WHAAA????Javier Vazquez 2005-2009IP:1062.2ERA: 4.09bb/9: 2.2k/9: 8.7ERA+ 110The only reason I posted ERA is because baseball refrence is the only place i know of to get sample sizes and dosen't have FIP, his career FIP is 3.84... What point of that is dissapointing? For melky cabrera and a minor league pitcher no less.

I phrased that poorly. He's notoriously streaky, and at times disappointing. He'll have a huge year, and then, shouldered with expectations, disappoint. I'm a really big fan of Vasquez, for what it's worth. By way of example, here are his ERA+ numbers from 2003 to present:03: 13904: 9205: 10106: 9807: 12608: 9809: 143In some of those years, his FIP was fantastic as well, and I believe he has consistently underperformed with respect to ERA vs. FIP. There's a lingering concern that perhaps, just maybe, he hasn't been unlucky, and there's something about his delivery and/or command that allows hitters to square him up better than one would expect. Again, however, I'm a really big Vazquez fan, and even his BAD years are near-league-average, which is still quite valuable over 200+ IP.