Swift_Psycho, on Saturday, April 3rd, 2010, 5:45 PM, said:
I'm not sure it's fair to remove starter #5 from the equation. One of the reasons why I said I liked the Red Sox and Braves more than the Giants was because I liked their prospective #5's better.In any case, the original question was "best rotation in the league?" which I took to mean what was the best rotation in absolute terms. If you make it more context dependent though and ask which rotation I prefer, I might have to think a little more, since a worse rotation on the Giants can do more damage (potentially) in the NL West than a better rotation from the AL East.And while I dislike it when people just dismiss sabermetrics and projections simply because they don't like what they see, I still have to say that I'm not sure I like Sanchez with an 4.15 FIP projection, and I think the 4.61 for Buchholz is just too high. I think during the second half of last year we were seeing the potential that scouts have been gushing over for Buchholz finally show up a little bit, and I expect more improvement with more experience.I'll admit though that the answer to the question of best rotation is probably a little less clear-cut than I originally thought, but I still think I'd stick with the Yanks and Sox rotations over the Giants.Edit: Just out of personal curiosity, I looked up other projections on Buchholz, and it seems like Marcel is pretty different from the rest (the others are much higher on Buchholz). Bill James has an FIP projection of 3.94, CHONE 4.27 and ZIPS 4.08. All of those projections also agree with Sanchez being pretty good as well, so maybe I just haven't seen Sanchez enough to fairly assess his skills.
First of all, I wasn't trying to make the question context dependent, but there just aren't any publicy available numbers that are totally context-neutral. ERA is league/park/luck dependent. FIP doesn't adjust or the differences in league difficulty, and projections are unadjusted. I was just throwing those numbers in there for reference, assuming people could do the league-adjustments themselves.Yeah, Marcel is named after the monkey from Friends
, because it is so simple a trained monkey could do it. It takes almost nothing into account except previous performance and age. 4.61 is more likely to be pessimistic that optimistic, and I doubt Tom Tango would argue otherwise. 4-4.5 seems about right to me on Buch. I think Sanchez sucks, but he probably sucks in a "league-average" kind of way. I'm not sure whose rotation I'd take, but it probably wouldn't be the Giants', unless you really think Bumgardner is ready to make the leap or something. Gun to my head, I take the Sox rotation. I think Lester will finish Top 5 in the Cy Young this year.
I mean, RAAAAAAWWWR!