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Big Draw In Position


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#21 Stupidhead

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 05:48 PM

View PostBaseJester, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 5:27 PM, said:

Our pot equity is about $1 on the flop. If we bet and win the pot outright, we have $2.25 instead. That's $1.25 better than a $1. On this favorable turn, we're getting $2.25 if the hand ends there. So we're weighing implied odds times our probability of hitting against the money in the pot on the flop.
Pot equity? Wat? Why are you even remotely concerned with this? Like I get the concept but it just seems so useless. When we hit, it increases. When we miss, it decreases proportionally. Which means it'll just average out to the same as our flop equity. There's no reason to take this into consideration when we're trying to make our decision.

#22 Suited_Up

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 05:49 PM

OMG just bet the fucking flop.
-Kurt

#23 Ninja Ace

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 05:49 PM

View PostStupidhead, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 5:31 PM, said:

Not getting your money in good? You're never in bad shape here. If someone spazzes with a flush draw we are a huge favorite. If someone stacks off with 1 pair, then our A is also live and we're a favorite. Against 2 pair or a set we have 12 clean outs. Against a straight, we have 11 clean outs. We don't have a made hand and we can easily pressure people off better hands like 109, J8, even weak K's if we double barrel.
1) We're a favorite over mid pairs... why bother trying to fold them out?2) How can we fold off a K with a double barrel but expect one pair to stack off on a broadway heavy multiway pot?3) against bottom 2 we have 42%... and that's the worst hand we can expect to stack off against... sets we have 30% and QT we have the same equity as against bottom 2. In these scenarios we lose 8% of $25 at best which is $2... much more than the $1.25 in FE Jester pointed out... and you only get that entire $1.25 if you fold them out 100% of the time.You're really overvaluing your bluff equity against the table TBH
Idiot Savant Extraordinaire


QUOTE (QED @ Monday, May 24th, 2010, 2:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Just got slow rolled by some random with aces, time to take an automatic weapon to the nearest crowded public space.


QUOTE (BaseJester)
"Mixing it up" doesn't magically rationalize anything you do. It's like you walk up to a pencil sharpener, pencil in hand, and think, "Everyone expects me to sharpen this pencil, but I'm going to mix it up." Then you whip out your cock and sharpen that instead and yell, "Ha ha, bitches, you never saw that coming!" Well, no, they didn't. But you still have a dull pencil and bleeding dick.

#24 droberts

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 05:54 PM

change the dynamic of the hand and squeeze pre. bet flop.. stack someone on turn.. ez game.

#25 Suited_Up

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 05:56 PM

View Postdroberts, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 7:54 PM, said:

change the dynamic of the hand and squeeze pre. bet flop.. stack someone on turn.. ez game.
or....Bet flop, don't be retard, collect stacks, ez game.
-Kurt

#26 Stupidhead

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 05:57 PM

View PostSuited_Up, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 5:56 PM, said:

or....Bet flop, don't be retard, collect stacks, ez game.
I like it.

#27 Stupidhead

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 05:59 PM

View PostNinja Ace, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 5:49 PM, said:

1) We're a favorite over mid pairs... why bother trying to fold them out?2) How can we fold off a K with a double barrel but expect one pair to stack off on a broadway heavy multiway pot?3) against bottom 2 we have 42%... and that's the worst hand we can expect to stack off against... sets we have 30% and QT we have the same equity as against bottom 2. In these scenarios we lose 8% of $25 at best which is $2... much more than the $1.25 in FE Jester pointed out... and you only get that entire $1.25 if you fold them out 100% of the time.You're really overvaluing your bluff equity against the table TBH
Or I hate the idea of calling or folding when the turn blanks and someone bets out. Or I'm not assuming we're going to be paid off when we check and hit the turn.Or I don't hate money.

#28 droberts

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 05:59 PM

they both work imo.

#29 Ninja Ace

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 05:59 PM

View Postdroberts, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 5:54 PM, said:

change the dynamic of the hand and squeeze pre. bet flop.. stack someone on turn.. ez game.
This is fantastic as well. NH sir
Idiot Savant Extraordinaire


QUOTE (QED @ Monday, May 24th, 2010, 2:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Just got slow rolled by some random with aces, time to take an automatic weapon to the nearest crowded public space.


QUOTE (BaseJester)
"Mixing it up" doesn't magically rationalize anything you do. It's like you walk up to a pencil sharpener, pencil in hand, and think, "Everyone expects me to sharpen this pencil, but I'm going to mix it up." Then you whip out your cock and sharpen that instead and yell, "Ha ha, bitches, you never saw that coming!" Well, no, they didn't. But you still have a dull pencil and bleeding dick.

#30 BaseJester

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 06:00 PM

View PostStupidhead, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 8:31 PM, said:

Not getting your money in good?
Not getting it in especially good. I don't get involved in this hand in the hopes of coin-flipping. I'm OK with it, but it's not the result that motivates the call preflop.

Quote

You're never in bad shape here. If someone spazzes with a flush draw we are a huge favorite. If someone stacks off with 1 pair, then our A is also live and we're a favorite. Against 2 pair or a set we have 12 clean outs. Against a straight, we have 11 clean outs.
The J :club: is dirty. I'm not sure what one pair hands without an ace that you have in mind that check-raise the flop. KQ, JQ. J :ts something ? But yeah, there are many hands that we're only a slight dog to, sets to which we're a 2:1 dog, and draws that we crush.
If everybody is thinking the same thing, then somebody isn't thinking.
- General George Patton

#31 Ninja Ace

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 06:01 PM

View PostStupidhead, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 5:59 PM, said:

Or I hate the idea of calling or folding when the turn blanks and someone bets out. Or I'm not assuming we're going to be paid off when we check and hit the turn.Or I don't hate money.
Why the hell would you fold the turn to any reasonable bet on a blank with so many outs and position?You won't get paid off every time you hit the turn... but the implied odds are so humongous you don't have to get paid off very often
Idiot Savant Extraordinaire


QUOTE (QED @ Monday, May 24th, 2010, 2:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Just got slow rolled by some random with aces, time to take an automatic weapon to the nearest crowded public space.


QUOTE (BaseJester)
"Mixing it up" doesn't magically rationalize anything you do. It's like you walk up to a pencil sharpener, pencil in hand, and think, "Everyone expects me to sharpen this pencil, but I'm going to mix it up." Then you whip out your cock and sharpen that instead and yell, "Ha ha, bitches, you never saw that coming!" Well, no, they didn't. But you still have a dull pencil and bleeding dick.

#32 Jordan

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 06:08 PM

recommend you stop saying implied odds.ezbet on the flop, lol

#33 BaseJester

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 06:17 PM

View PostJordan, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 9:08 PM, said:

ezbet on the flop, lol
You were in diapers the last time you played full-ring. Get off my lawn. :-)This is a real question, by the way.

View PostBaseJester, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 8:19 PM, said:

If you're looking over my shoulder, how much would you pay to take over this hand after I check the flop but before the turn card comes out?

If everybody is thinking the same thing, then somebody isn't thinking.
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#34 Hector Cerif

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 06:18 PM

betting this flop is silly because we don't have the best hand.There is no way this flop didn't hit someone smack hard in the face, and the bet/raise turn proves this.edit: and raise raise raise turn, we get as much in from straight, smaller flush, trips as we can right now, rather than putting them to a bigger test on river.
jimmyhighend: wtfu
jimmyhighend: are
jimmyhighend: the luckiest newbie
jimmyhighend: i ever saw
Hctorcerif: :*(
jimmyhighend: u run good
jimmyhighend: but u are bad
jimmyhighend: gg

#35 gary21212121

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 06:23 PM

View PostNinja Ace, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 5:49 PM, said:

1) We're a favorite over mid pairs... why bother trying to fold them out?that way we win the hand 100% of the time2) How can we fold off a K with a double barrel but expect one pair to stack off on a broadway heavy multiway pot? our hand has a lot of equity but its still ace high, so even though we dont mind getting it in, we want to win the hand without showdown whenever possible. 3) against bottom 2 we have 42%... and that's the worst hand we can expect to stack off against... sets we have 30% and QT we have the same equity as against bottom 2. In these scenarios we lose 8% of $25 at best which is $2... much more than the $1.25 in FE Jester pointed out... and you only get that entire $1.25 if you fold them out 100% of the time. only if his range was wider than air and nut hands...You're really overvaluing your bluff equity against the table TBH you're overvaluing the benefits from playing passive


#36 gary21212121

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 06:25 PM

View PostHector Cerif, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 6:18 PM, said:

betting this flop is silly because we don't have the best hand.
this isnt a good enough reason to never bet

#37 BaseJester

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 06:39 PM

'ninja ace' said:

1) We're a favorite over mid pairs... why bother trying to fold them out?

'Gary121211212121212121111211212221' said:

that way we win the hand 100% of the time
You have no idea how pleased I am to see this concept expressed correctly, no matter how much you hate my line.
If everybody is thinking the same thing, then somebody isn't thinking.
- General George Patton

#38 Hector Cerif

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 07:31 PM

View Postgary21212121, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 6:25 PM, said:

this isnt a good enough reason to never bet
because we dont have the best hand, because we will win by betting 0% of the time, because by betting we reopen the action, which on this board means check raise 90% of the time,
jimmyhighend: wtfu
jimmyhighend: are
jimmyhighend: the luckiest newbie
jimmyhighend: i ever saw
Hctorcerif: :*(
jimmyhighend: u run good
jimmyhighend: but u are bad
jimmyhighend: gg

#39 Merby

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 07:48 PM

Your argument to check back the flop seems so nice when we bink a spade on the turn for the nuts. What happens the majority of the time when you check back the flop and a blank card falls? Now an opponent bets into you pricing you out of your one card draw. Do you1) Fold because you aren't getting the right price to chase your draw, thereby losing the pot?2) Call, trying to hit your draw on the river -- even though the bad price is making you lose money in the long run?3) Raise, thereby turning your hand (which had good equity on the flop) into a semi-bluff with much lower equity?Suddenly choosing to check back the flop doesn't feel so appealing now, does it?
QUOTE (Fluffdog87 @ Tuesday, January 27th, 2009, 11:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Dramatic hand gestures on all-ins ftw!


A day in the life of Checkymcfold:
QUOTE (checkymcfold @ Friday, January 9th, 2009, 12:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My cats are freaked out, I have a headache, and I'm probably going to put on pants for the first time in three days and find somewhere to go that's not here.


QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Tuesday, July 22nd, 2008, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
[x] Signature-worthy.

#40 rrumsey

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Posted 12 February 2010 - 07:56 PM

View Postmtdesmoines, on Thursday, February 11th, 2010, 5:15 PM, said:

$2.10 all day and we try to get it in.
this all day
Escalante in the small stakes grinder podcast in respect to my FPS " Bet your damn hands!!!" hahaha

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