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Big Draw In Position


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#101 Nashtak

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Posted 15 February 2010 - 01:50 PM

I believe Acid Knight won this thread at page 2 or 3.
QUOTE (Tactical Bear @ Monday, December 27th, 2010, 4:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
If I had a nickel for every time I've had this exact same problem I would have zero nickels because I'm not a faggot.

#102 Acid_Knight

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Posted 15 February 2010 - 02:09 PM

View PostBaseJester, on Monday, February 15th, 2010, 12:38 PM, said:

I have the impression that people are going through their mental Rolodexes, finding the card on "more than nine outs", and transcribing their answer here, with the hopes that I will gratefully transcribe this response into my Rolodex for future transcription. In short, I don't think people are showing their work.
The reason people look up "11 nut outs, possibly a few more, probably fold equity" in their rolodexes and go from there is because it works. It's profitable. You don't need to show your work on how you get to 1+1=2 because everyone knows what 1+1 is equal to. This situation isn't as black and white as that of course, but you need to have some pretty good reasons NOT to bet in these situations and it's not the other way around.You don't need to show your work here to get it in with this hand on this board. You do need to show your work to show why you should be doing something else.Also, there are too many variables since we have 3 opponents. Just bet and go from there. I think that by and large you're going to see a lot more weird/ugly/undesirable turn situations (assuming a blank rolls off) after checking back the flop than you ever will by just betting the flop.

#103 BaseJester

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Posted 15 February 2010 - 06:54 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Monday, February 15th, 2010, 5:09 PM, said:

You don't need to show your work here to get it in with this hand on this board. You do need to show your work to show why you should be doing something else.
Fair enough. I've attached a spreadsheet with my assumptions and calculations for the net result of the flop bet. I come up with +21 cents before the rake. Please free free to put in your own assumptions or point out any problems thus far. The rest of the hand is more of a pain in the ass to calculate, so if we could disagree about this part it would save us a lot of trouble in the long run.

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#104 Acid_Knight

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Posted 15 February 2010 - 11:28 PM

View PostBaseJester, on Monday, February 15th, 2010, 6:54 PM, said:

Fair enough. I've attached a spreadsheet with my assumptions and calculations for the net result of the flop bet. I come up with +21 cents before the rake. Please free free to put in your own assumptions or point out any problems thus far. The rest of the hand is more of a pain in the ass to calculate, so if we could disagree about this part it would save us a lot of trouble in the long run.
I'll make your life easy and disagree with the principle of calcing our equities against 3 other hands that we're really not sure what they're going to be doing. I could disagree with any number of the frequencies there which would skew things one way or another. The fact that they are so arbitrary is why it makes exercises like that fairly fruitless and it's why people can just bet "without showing their work" as you concisely put it, and still show a profit in the long run.I'm not in the "checking back the flop is a mistake" here camp, I'm in the "I would almost never check the flop in this spot" camp, so it's not a big thing. I just think my life is easier by betting.

#105 Ninja Ace

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Posted 15 February 2010 - 11:31 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Monday, February 15th, 2010, 11:28 PM, said:

I'll make your life easy and disagree with the principle of calcing our equities against 3 other hands that we're really not sure what they're going to be doing.
Although I'm in the checking back camp Jester, this is a pretty solid point. You have way too many unknowns to attempt to factor in here. I wouldn't even know how to being programming something that could semi-accurately figure that out.I think a lot of the unknown problems that will make you realize this are in the opening chapters of Caro's book of tells... i forget what he calls the principle but it's essentially the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle for poker
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QUOTE (QED @ Monday, May 24th, 2010, 2:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Just got slow rolled by some random with aces, time to take an automatic weapon to the nearest crowded public space.


QUOTE (BaseJester)
"Mixing it up" doesn't magically rationalize anything you do. It's like you walk up to a pencil sharpener, pencil in hand, and think, "Everyone expects me to sharpen this pencil, but I'm going to mix it up." Then you whip out your cock and sharpen that instead and yell, "Ha ha, bitches, you never saw that coming!" Well, no, they didn't. But you still have a dull pencil and bleeding dick.

#106 Mr. Sparco

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Posted 15 February 2010 - 11:48 PM

View PostNinja Ace, on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010, 8:31 AM, said:

but it's essentially the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle for poker
Uh oh... please don't tell me I have to start replying in this thread too!

#107 BaseJester

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Posted 16 February 2010 - 05:01 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010, 2:28 AM, said:

I'll make your life easy and disagree with the principle of calcing our equities against 3 other hands that we're really not sure what they're going to be doing. I could disagree with any number of the frequencies there which would skew things one way or another. The fact that they are so arbitrary is why it makes exercises like that fairly fruitless and it's why people can just bet "without showing their work" as you concisely put it, and still show a profit in the long run.
You could make some wildly different assumptions and come up with 75 cents. If you could be comfortable with the idea that it's no more than a dollar, that's probably close enough. It comes down to whether we want to play the last streets with more in the pot or more in the stacks.And a retarded banana can show a profit in this situation, so I think we can be a little more ambitious.
If everybody is thinking the same thing, then somebody isn't thinking.
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#108 Mills

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Posted 16 February 2010 - 05:26 AM

View PostBaseJester, on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010, 5:01 AM, said:

And a retarded banana can show a profit in this situation, so I think we can be a little more ambitious.
why be more ambitious?If a retarted banana can show profit in this situation... great. isnt that the point of all of this?

#109 Acid_Knight

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Posted 16 February 2010 - 08:53 AM

View PostBaseJester, on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010, 5:01 AM, said:

You could make some wildly different assumptions and come up with 75 cents. If you could be comfortable with the idea that it's no more than a dollar, that's probably close enough. It comes down to whether we want to play the last streets with more in the pot or more in the stacks.And a retarded banana can show a profit in this situation, so I think we can be a little more ambitious.
I don't think that you should be looking to pass up a situation which is profitable and rather foolproof to play in favor of creating a situation where you put yourself in a position to make a rather costly error in the hand and you may or may not be able to increase your equity in the hand past what it would be on the flop.I mean, why make our lives more difficult than they have to be? Poker's about maximizing our equities and making the best decisions possible. Sometimes the best decision is obvious and sometimes it's not. I'm a big proponent of making my life easy in spots where it makes sense to do so as long as it's still profitable and this is a great example of that. The best flop decision seems to be to bet and get a lot of money in because we are a good sized equity favorite in a 4 handed pot. On the turn, the best decision isn't always clear, so I prefer to avoid making a mistake there and betting the flop. I understand that we still play a turn if all the money doesn't go in on the flop and now we're playing a turn with a larger pot, but we also have more information about our opponent's hand(s) and we can make some good decisions there.My main point is that I don't think that you should be trying to encourage players who don't have a full skillset to pass up inherently profitable and easy to play situations where they can't make a mistake in favor of more difficult spots at this point. Getting them to think about why they should or shouldn't be betting and realizing what will happen on later streets is great, but I would guess that 95% of the up and coming players in this forum should just be betting this flop and looking to get money in. The other 5%, which I'm including myself in, should take whatever line they think is going to be best for them. For me, in this particular hand, ti's still betting the flop. For others, they might like checking and that's fine.

#110 BaseJester

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Posted 16 February 2010 - 02:33 PM

View PostMills, on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010, 8:26 AM, said:

why be more ambitious?If a retarted banana can show profit in this situation... great. isnt that the point of all of this?
Just because we've found a line with an expectation that is more than zero doesn't mean there's a different line with an even higher one. E.g., we can always open-shove preflop with AA; this makes the hand easy to play and it always has a positive expectation.
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#111 Hector Cerif

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Posted 18 February 2010 - 12:48 AM

results to satisfy curiosity?
jimmyhighend: wtfu
jimmyhighend: are
jimmyhighend: the luckiest newbie
jimmyhighend: i ever saw
Hctorcerif: :*(
jimmyhighend: u run good
jimmyhighend: but u are bad
jimmyhighend: gg

#112 BaseJester

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Posted 18 February 2010 - 02:48 PM

View PostHector Cerif, on Thursday, February 18th, 2010, 3:48 AM, said:

results to satisfy curiosity?
Villain had QTo.
If everybody is thinking the same thing, then somebody isn't thinking.
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#113 nutzzcase

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Posted 19 February 2010 - 03:38 PM

what if villain with q10 bets the flop?? do you call or raise?

#114 Ninja Ace

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Posted 19 February 2010 - 03:52 PM

View Postnutzzcase, on Friday, February 19th, 2010, 3:38 PM, said:

what if villain with q10 bets the flop?? do you call or raise?
raaaaaiiiiisssseee
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QUOTE (QED @ Monday, May 24th, 2010, 2:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Just got slow rolled by some random with aces, time to take an automatic weapon to the nearest crowded public space.


QUOTE (BaseJester)
"Mixing it up" doesn't magically rationalize anything you do. It's like you walk up to a pencil sharpener, pencil in hand, and think, "Everyone expects me to sharpen this pencil, but I'm going to mix it up." Then you whip out your cock and sharpen that instead and yell, "Ha ha, bitches, you never saw that coming!" Well, no, they didn't. But you still have a dull pencil and bleeding dick.

#115 Acid_Knight

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Posted 20 February 2010 - 04:45 AM

View PostBaseJester, on Thursday, February 18th, 2010, 2:48 PM, said:

Villain had QTo.
Results don't matter, but I hate that these are the results for so many reasons.

#116 30odd6

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Posted 23 February 2010 - 11:48 AM

View PostBaseJester, on Friday, February 12th, 2010, 6:57 AM, said:

I checked behind. UTG +1 is LAA. HJ is SLAP. I posted this hand because we were mostly in agreement in Ninja Ace's hand that we should play aggressively with the nuts on the turn. Here's a case where I didn't, so I wanted to explore that choice. I think this hand is much different due to having position on three villains.Flop: ($2.25) :ts :4h :club: (6 players)SB checks, UTG+1 checks, HJ checks, Hero checksTurn: ($2.25) :5c (6 players)SB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.75, HJ raises to $1.50,
im going with the deception factor, as well as building a good pot to win with the outs i have, so i bet the flop telling someone i have top pair and the draws will follow cuz they can beat top pair if hitting a flush or straight or having AA. the trap is set and you let them pay you off when they hit cuz you hit a bigger hand. it makes for bigger winnings over time, and if they do fold, which i doubt, so what...i win without anything. no guarantees i will hit. and if re-raised, i still have the nut draw. the dynamics of this hand changes when betting the flop. its called gambling for a reason. and also finding out where you are at.

#117 Danege

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Posted 24 February 2010 - 01:43 AM

View Post30odd6, on Wednesday, February 24th, 2010, 5:48 AM, said:

its called gambling for a reason. and also finding out where you are at.
Definitely the best reason to bet imo.




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