BaseJester, on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010, 5:01 AM, said:
You could make some wildly different assumptions and come up with 75 cents. If you could be comfortable with the idea that it's no more than a dollar, that's probably close enough. It comes down to whether we want to play the last streets with more in the pot or more in the stacks.And a retarded banana can show a profit in this situation, so I think we can be a little more ambitious.
I don't think that you should be looking to pass up a situation which is profitable and rather foolproof to play in favor of creating a situation where you put yourself in a position to make a rather costly error in the hand and you may or may not be able to increase your equity in the hand past what it would be on the flop.I mean, why make our lives more difficult than they have to be? Poker's about maximizing our equities and making the best decisions possible. Sometimes the best decision is obvious and sometimes it's not. I'm a big proponent of making my life easy in spots where it makes sense to do so as long as it's still profitable and this is a great example of that. The best flop decision seems to be to bet and get a lot of money in because we are a good sized equity favorite in a 4 handed pot. On the turn, the best decision isn't always clear, so I prefer to avoid making a mistake there and betting the flop. I understand that we still play a turn if all the money doesn't go in on the flop and now we're playing a turn with a larger pot, but we also have more information about our opponent's hand(s) and we can make some good decisions there.My main point is that I don't think that you should be trying to encourage players who don't have a full skillset to pass up inherently profitable and easy to play situations where they can't make a mistake in favor of more difficult spots at this point. Getting them to think about why they should or shouldn't be betting and realizing what will happen on later streets is great, but I would guess that 95% of the up and coming players in this forum should just be betting this flop and looking to get money in. The other 5%, which I'm including myself in, should take whatever line they think is going to be best for them. For me, in this particular hand, ti's still betting the flop. For others, they might like checking and that's fine.