hypothetical analysis
Started by Actuary, May 24 2005 10:48 AM
12 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 24 May 2005 - 10:48 AM
To all the great hand analyst, of which I’m not one.We often see posts of hands played. Sometimes the outcome is not immediately provided, but the “Hero” is. To the extent that this one sided perspective skews the analysis, I thought I’d provide a hypothetical hand and ask for repliers to play thru the entire hand acting as each player.I’ll provide some Player Images and all the cards. Each player is not necessarily bound to act according to there image, but should consider how others perceive them and also assume their reads on other players’ styles match the images below. (Just make it make sense: I wouldn’t think a player shown to be loose/passive would all of a sudden be tight/aggressive for the sake of this analysis) This could turn out to be a real learning experience, I hope.Game: 8 Handed Hold’em $3-6 Perceived ImagePlayer 1 (UTG): New to table (doesn’t know other’s images either)Player 2 (UTG + 1): Semi-loose, WeakPlayer 3 (UTG + 2): Tight, semi PassivePlayer 4 (MP): Loose AggressivePlayer 5 (CO): No hands played, 13 dealtPlayer 6 (Button): Loose PassivePlayer 7 (SB): New to table (doesn’t know other’s images either)Player 8 (BB): AggressiveDown Cards:Player 1: Ad – Qd Player 2: 9h – 9sPlayer 3: Js – 3cPlayer 4: 8d – 7dPlayer 5: Kh - Jd Player 6: Qc – 5hPlayer 7: Th – 4sPlayer 8: 5c – 5sFlop: Kd – 5d – 6cTurn: 2sRiver: Ahthanks for all the legitimate responses..or flames..both are fun to read!I don’t care if I did not design the “best hypothetical” situation for analysis…it’s a start.
#2
Posted 24 May 2005 - 11:02 AM
Hmm...I'm guessing you want how I think the hand would go down?UTG has an easy raise with AQUTG +1 Is probably going to call with 99. Thought about raising, but a weak player isn't going to three bet this.3 folds4 probably cold calls with 78 diamonds, hoping for a nice flop. LAG's love this kind of hand5 calls only because of getting good odds. Probably a marginal call, but there's no read on this guy.6 foldsSB foldsBB calls5 to the flopBB Checks his setUTG bets the nutflush draw and the overcard, UTG+1 might call thinking UTG has nothing4 raises the weaker flush draw. Again, it's what LAG's do5 folds his top pair to a bet and a raise with only a J kickerBB reraises his setUTG caps, and now UTG+1 folds his 9's3 left (UTG, MP and BB) to the turnBB Bets his set againUTG raises again...he has a lot of outs hereBB 3-betsUTG calls3 left to the riverBB Bets againUTG can only call with his aces. He knows they're no goodHuge pot won by the BB with a set of 5'sThat what you were looking for OP?
Last night I stayed up late playing poker with Tarot cards. I got a full house and four people died.
#3
Posted 24 May 2005 - 11:15 AM
UTG is going to be playing his own style.( Hes not going to switch anything up until he knows the field, assuming he's a knowledgable player. If not, we'll find out how he plays in a few hands)UTG+1 is going to be bringing in with a few too many hands and only raising good ones.UTG+2 is going to be bringing in with more than usual, but only because he's behind UTG+1. But, he wont be raising marginal hands to get heads up with UTG+1 because he's weak/tight. so hes going to be doing alot of limping; only raising his good hands.MP1 is obviously going to raise too many hands. And because of the two players in front of him, he is going to be bloating the pot too much. He's going build a bunch of pots with marginal hands. CO is knewButton is going to be doing alot of cold/calling. Bloating the pot more.SB...i dunno.BB is in the best seat in the house. His relative position will make him able take advantage of a few things. He will be able to play from the blinds a bunch more and he will also be able to c/r MP1 to trap the UTG players for 2 or more bets without worrying about knocking out the button. Extpect alot of postflop play from BB.**That's assuming a few of those are thinking players as well. I tried not to make it that way as much as possible**
back for kramit
#4
Posted 24 May 2005 - 11:25 AM
Nicely done, Vade.
#5
Posted 24 May 2005 - 11:59 AM
Vade: Yes..beautiful!.. thanks for all the commentary.One detail: MP also has open end str8 draw..not that it effects his plays, but he was not drawing dead.And why is the turn bet for Player 1 automatic..for deception?Also..the SB should play first post flop...I know u know that..but I think you got it mixed up.Thanks again!Nevermind..Re-read..I missed it..got caught at work in conversation..and missed ...your fine on the betting order...Edit Again..geesh..ok MP did not have open end draw..only one 9 could help him..but he thinks he does, of course..
#6
Posted 24 May 2005 - 12:08 PM
I think the turn bet is automatic as a continuation bet. a blank falls, and couldn't have helped anybody, really, so if you bet the flop thinking you're good, you gotta bet the turn thinking you're good. Also it keeps you in the aggressors spot. Just didn't heppen to work out this time.
#7
Posted 24 May 2005 - 12:52 PM
Btw, on the first time through I accidentally had the BB act last, I then edited it...so you're not going crazy :POn the edit, I deleted MP, who would call all the bets on the turn, and have to fold his 8 high on the river...even to only 1 bet.
Last night I stayed up late playing poker with Tarot cards. I got a full house and four people died.
#8
Posted 23 February 2007 - 04:10 PM
5 folds preflop. he probably would have played at least one hand in 13 if he's loose enough to cold call 2 raises preflop with that foot.
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.
#9
Posted 23 February 2007 - 06:22 PM
QUOTE (navybuttons @ Friday, February 23rd, 2007, 4:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
5 folds preflop. he probably would have played at least one hand in 13 if he's loose enough to cold call 2 raises preflop with that foot.

Reading that again, I agree.
this is perhaps one of my first 5 strategy posts, if not the first new thread of mine
#10
Posted 23 February 2007 - 07:29 PM
Perceived Image
Player 1 (UTG): New to table (doesn’t know other’s images either)
Player 2 (UTG + 1): Semi-loose, Weak
Player 3 (UTG + 2): Tight, semi Passive
Player 4 (MP): Loose Aggressive
Player 5 (CO): No hands played, 13 dealt
Player 6 (Button): Loose Passive
Player 7 (SB): New to table (doesn’t know other’s images either)
Player 8 (BB): Aggressive
Down Cards:
Player 1: Ad – Qd
Player 2: 9h – 9s
Player 3: Js – 3c
Player 4: 8d – 7d
Player 5: Kh - Jd
Player 6: Qc – 5h
Player 7: Th – 4s
Player 8: 5c – 5s
Flop: Kd – 5d – 6c
Turn: 2s
River: Ah
Pre-Flop: p1 raises, p2 calls, p3 folds, p4 3 bets - he's been drinking... seriously though, i have seen LAG's make this play alot at a 3-6 limit game ask zach, he knows the games im talking about, p5 fold (he was folding to the 2 bets i think), p6 folds, p7 folds, p8 calls for pot odds, p1 mulls over it and folds, p2 calls.
after the flop
p8 bets, p1 folds, p2 calls, p4 raises, p8 3 bets, p2 folds, p4 caps, p8 calls.
turn
p8 bets, p4 calls.
river
p8 bets, p4 folds and complains for hours about how unluck he is, and how he flopped the world...
Player 1 (UTG): New to table (doesn’t know other’s images either)
Player 2 (UTG + 1): Semi-loose, Weak
Player 3 (UTG + 2): Tight, semi Passive
Player 4 (MP): Loose Aggressive
Player 5 (CO): No hands played, 13 dealt
Player 6 (Button): Loose Passive
Player 7 (SB): New to table (doesn’t know other’s images either)
Player 8 (BB): Aggressive
Down Cards:
Player 1: Ad – Qd
Player 2: 9h – 9s
Player 3: Js – 3c
Player 4: 8d – 7d
Player 5: Kh - Jd
Player 6: Qc – 5h
Player 7: Th – 4s
Player 8: 5c – 5s
Flop: Kd – 5d – 6c
Turn: 2s
River: Ah
Pre-Flop: p1 raises, p2 calls, p3 folds, p4 3 bets - he's been drinking... seriously though, i have seen LAG's make this play alot at a 3-6 limit game ask zach, he knows the games im talking about, p5 fold (he was folding to the 2 bets i think), p6 folds, p7 folds, p8 calls for pot odds, p1 mulls over it and folds, p2 calls.
after the flop
p8 bets, p1 folds, p2 calls, p4 raises, p8 3 bets, p2 folds, p4 caps, p8 calls.
turn
p8 bets, p4 calls.
river
p8 bets, p4 folds and complains for hours about how unluck he is, and how he flopped the world...
"Sister's my new mother, Mother. And is it just me, or is she looking hotter too?"
#11
Posted 23 February 2007 - 08:35 PM
What the heck....
I didn't read any responses, so it will be interesting to see the comparison.
Preflop:
UTG: (Player 1) Ad – Qd - assume an average tightish player he opens for a raise
UTG +1 (Player 2) 9h – 9s - Semi-loose will call with his 9s
UTG + 2 (Player 3) Js – 3c - Tight, will fold this garbage
MP (Player 4) 8d – 7d - Loose aggro will loooove this hand and call (maybe even raise)
CO (Player 5) Kh - Jd - Assuming nitty....will fold to raise from UTG assuming a big hand (the pot odds might be tempting though...)
Button (Player 6) Qc – 5h - Loose - Calls in position with good pot odds.
SB (Player 7) Th – 4s - Noob - folds garbage
BB (Player 8) 5c – 5s - Aggro loves the 5s and calls hoping to hit on a set
5 to the flop
Flop: Kd – 5d – 6c
BB (Player 8) - bets his set (no check, as this would seem tricky from a known aggro)
UTG: (Player 1) - nut flush draw, he calls
UTG +1 (Player 2) - his weakness causes him think it over but calls with his 9s
MP (Player 4) - Loose aggro drools over flush draw and OESD and raises
Button (Player 6) - figures his middle pair is no good and folds
BB 3 bets his set, UTG calls, UTG+1 finally decides his 9s are no good and folds, MP caps, BB calls, UTG calls
3 to the turn
Turn: 2s
BB (Player 8) - bets his set
UTG: (Player 1) - nut flush draw still, he calls
MP (Player 4) - raises again with all his outs
BB slows down and just calls with the straight possible on board, UTG figures he has to take the nut flush draw to the river and calls reluctantly
3 to the River
River: Ah
BB (Player 8) - bets his set
UTG: (Player 1) - missed his nut flush draw, but he calls hoping his aces might be good
MP (Player 4) - misses completely and folds knowing there's little chance of pushing anybody off this pot
BB (Player 8) takes the pot with his set
I didn't read any responses, so it will be interesting to see the comparison.
Preflop:
UTG: (Player 1) Ad – Qd - assume an average tightish player he opens for a raise
UTG +1 (Player 2) 9h – 9s - Semi-loose will call with his 9s
UTG + 2 (Player 3) Js – 3c - Tight, will fold this garbage
MP (Player 4) 8d – 7d - Loose aggro will loooove this hand and call (maybe even raise)
CO (Player 5) Kh - Jd - Assuming nitty....will fold to raise from UTG assuming a big hand (the pot odds might be tempting though...)
Button (Player 6) Qc – 5h - Loose - Calls in position with good pot odds.
SB (Player 7) Th – 4s - Noob - folds garbage
BB (Player 8) 5c – 5s - Aggro loves the 5s and calls hoping to hit on a set
5 to the flop
Flop: Kd – 5d – 6c
BB (Player 8) - bets his set (no check, as this would seem tricky from a known aggro)
UTG: (Player 1) - nut flush draw, he calls
UTG +1 (Player 2) - his weakness causes him think it over but calls with his 9s
MP (Player 4) - Loose aggro drools over flush draw and OESD and raises
Button (Player 6) - figures his middle pair is no good and folds
BB 3 bets his set, UTG calls, UTG+1 finally decides his 9s are no good and folds, MP caps, BB calls, UTG calls
3 to the turn
Turn: 2s
BB (Player 8) - bets his set
UTG: (Player 1) - nut flush draw still, he calls
MP (Player 4) - raises again with all his outs
BB slows down and just calls with the straight possible on board, UTG figures he has to take the nut flush draw to the river and calls reluctantly
3 to the River
River: Ah
BB (Player 8) - bets his set
UTG: (Player 1) - missed his nut flush draw, but he calls hoping his aces might be good
MP (Player 4) - misses completely and folds knowing there's little chance of pushing anybody off this pot
BB (Player 8) takes the pot with his set
"There is a theory which states that if ever anybody discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened." - Douglas Adams
#12
Posted 23 February 2007 - 11:02 PM
QUOTE (sirphatticus @ Friday, February 23rd, 2007, 10:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Pre-Flop: p1 raises, p2 calls, p3 folds, p4 3 bets - he's been drinking... seriously though, i have seen LAG's make this play alot at a 3-6 limit game ask zach, he knows the games im talking about, p5 fold (he was folding to the 2 bets i think), p6 folds, p7 folds, p8 calls for pot odds, p1 mulls over it and folds, p2 calls.
People 3-bet or cap here just for the sake of doing it. Like, donk limps and it's 3-bet back to him, I've seen caps with 75o, etc, just because "meh, it'll be 4-bet anyways".
Etc.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.
#13
Posted 24 February 2007 - 12:37 AM
please read the first chapter of _caro's book of poker tells_
kkcountry - second victim of the fidler
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