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New Challenge: Movin' On Up


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#9141 DiamondDixie

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Posted 25 February 2012 - 01:37 AM

Jon on your sturtegy hand:1st off why not 3 bet pre? I really don't want to play AQs OOP without 3 betting it against most players. By 3 betting pre when we are OOP we can control the pot post if he just flats us and we can figure he doesn't have a hand like AA or KK or sometimes even AK and QQ or he would of 4 bet us. I just prefer to eliminate as much guessing post as I can when I'm OOP. Not really sure I get the x/r on the flop, the flop is really dry and we very well may have the best hand so by x/r we are essentially turning our hand into a bluff. What is your plan if you get re-raised? I guess you have to fold but he may have a middle pair or AJ, KJ or 2 overs and doesn't like to fold, etc and if you improve you my get more value than you will by bluffing the flop. Plus with 17/13 stats he might not even c-bet if he whiffs and most 4NL players aren't likely to fold a good pair. I guess the value of it is you can take control of the pot if you get flatted as you did. The turn seems fine but as played I think you should bet the river. If he had a set here he's probably raising you on the turn if not the flop. So he has basically 3 hands that beat you AA and KK but I think he's also raising those 2 on the flop or turn so the only thing I'm at all worried about is QJ. So you are good here a lot since we beat way more hands than he's likely to have that beat us and we're definitely good enough of the time to make betting profitable, imo. If we check and he bets we end up guessing and maybe folding the best hand.

#9142 KingJames

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Posted 27 February 2012 - 10:46 AM

I really like your line, JonPre-flop is fine, and vs a tighter guy, 17/13, he prob steals like 20%, I like flatting AQs- we are OOP so we don't have positional advantage so by calling we ensure having card advantage; we smash his button open range.I like the c.r this board and it's a great hand to do it with, especially as you had a plan (firing any broadway or diamond). Too many ppl c.r dry boards without good equity, but we have awesome equity for the bottom of our c.r range!Turn bet sizing seems great to me. I think he calls with JX and he might be stubborn with 88-TT; and I think a lot of regs call the flop with AX, espeically if they have a bdfd or AK (two overs)River I want to bet/fold pretty small. Doubt he will bluff us if we bet 40% of the pot and I want a crying call from 88-JX hands (I doubt a 17/13 4nl reg turns AJ into a bluff is my point), so maybe we bet like $1.05. It's kinda thin bc this guy might just call down KK, but I think we will show a profit with this bet and sizing.Good analysis of the turn/river, DD.
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#9143 fighter

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Posted 27 February 2012 - 09:50 PM

Jon handI think that c/r or c/c the flop both have merits and depend more on your overall style of play. Whether you bet river depends on how often you c/r the flop. The more you do it, the more you should be betting this river. It really depends on how often a reg will be calling down with a bluff catcher. The more agro you have been the more often you have to bet. Considering your hand choice and the way the board ran out, I would bet river. I would also be inclined to bet more on the turn to set up a river shove. I just don't see him folding the turn that often for that bet size, which makes using this line for a bluff that much harder. Also KingJames, I don't like your 40% b/f plan. If I was playing against you, I would assume that you had exactly AJ and there would be times that I just turn my hand into a bluff and shove over you thinking that you have bet enough to fold and are trying to get a crying call from Jx more often then inducing with a stronger hand since you could have easily gotten stacks in by the river. It might induce which is an awful result for us in this situation.

View PostDiamondDixie, on Saturday, February 25th, 2012, 7:37 PM, said:

1st off why not 3 bet pre? I really don't want to play AQs OOP without 3 betting it against most players. By 3 betting pre when we are OOP we can control the pot post if he just flats us and we can figure he doesn't have a hand like AA or KK or sometimes even AK and QQ or he would of 4 bet us. I just prefer to eliminate as much guessing post as I can when I'm OOP.
Just organising my thoughts on this.1. If an Ace comes, we are going to get more value from his Ax hands in a single raised pot then we are if we 3 bet. This is because AJ and AT are going to be value betting at least 2 streets while they instantly fold to a 3bet. 2. We allow ourselves to get 4bet bluffed off our hand by a lot of weaker hands. Considering his preflop stats, I want to be polarizing my range since he is unlikely to flat 3bets. 3. We want some strong hands in out pot control lines. Otherwise our opponents have a much easier time value betting/calling river bets against us on the river. 4. The money we spent 3betting to find out if he has AA/KK is more expensive then c/c any standard cbet on the flop. I think we also gain more information since it is harder and less frequent that he will 2 barrel bluff then he will 4bet bluff. We are going to lose money to AA,KK and AK when we have AQ. It is unavoidable. It shouldn't matter since he will also lose money when roles are reverse. The question then becomes which line allows us to greater realise our hands equity vs the rest of his range. I think vs tight opponents where we are not going AIPF w/AQ, that just calling preflop is the best course of action.

#9144 KingJames

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Posted 27 February 2012 - 10:03 PM

View Postfighter, on Monday, February 27th, 2012, 10:50 PM, said:

Also James, I don't like your 40% b/f plan. If I was playing against you, I would assume that you had exactly AJ and there would be times that I just turn my hand into a bluff and shove over you thinking that you have bet enough to fold and are trying to get a crying call from Jx more often then inducing with a stronger hand since you could have easily gotten stacks in by the river. It might induce which is an awful result for us in this situation.
Yeah, I agree with your thoughts here.That being said, you are not a 17/13 4nl "reg"I think even a nittier reg will sometimes make a loose call if we bet small hereI'm trying not to be stubborn, but I can't think of a line/bet size I like more here on the river... I doubt we get looked up by KJ or AJ if we bet much larger... but I could be wrong...
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#9145 KingJames

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Posted 27 February 2012 - 10:05 PM

Are you thinking we should bet a standard amount here and fold getting good odds if jammed on?Or are you just saying don't get into this spot by betting bigger on turn and playing for stacks?? I think the avg 4nl reg is not going to stack off AJ so I think betting twice small is >>>> but again, I'm open for a discussion and to hear others thoughts
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#9146 DiamondDixie

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Posted 27 February 2012 - 10:26 PM

Okay I totally get the not 3 betting pre here since villain is a tight reg and we are way ahead of his button range but I'm still not sure I get the merit of the flop check raise, would love more thoughts on this. I think I get it but just trying to wrap my brain around it.

#9147 fighter

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Posted 27 February 2012 - 11:05 PM

View PostKingJames, on Tuesday, February 28th, 2012, 4:03 PM, said:

Yeah, I agree with your thoughts here.That being said, you are not a 17/13 4nl "reg"I think even a nittier reg will sometimes make a loose call if we bet small hereI'm trying not to be stubborn, but I can't think of a line/bet size I like more here on the river... I doubt we get looked up by KJ or AJ if we bet much larger... but I could be wrong...
I think that If AJ/KJ call turn, they can call river for the exact same reasons. It is a really dry board and we are representing only sets. While bet/folding sucks with massive odds, it is easy in this spot since he would only be doing this with sets. No one would try to get us to fold getting a million to 1 after we have c.r and fired twice.

View PostKingJames, on Tuesday, February 28th, 2012, 4:05 PM, said:

Are you thinking we should bet a standard amount here and fold getting good odds if jammed on?Or are you just saying don't get into this spot by betting bigger on turn and playing for stacks?? I think the avg 4nl reg is not going to stack off AJ so I think betting twice small is >>>> but again, I'm open for a discussion and to hear others thoughts
Both really. If he is folding everything but sets and calling twice with TP, then we should be c/r and barreling off on every dry board. At some point they are going to make a stand and call you down. He is folding too much so this is almost profitable with ATC. This is just an awesome situation where our hand also beats his take a stand range. He could also be floating our c/r with KQ, QT and I doubt they are folding.

View PostDiamondDixie, on Tuesday, February 28th, 2012, 4:26 PM, said:

Okay I totally get the not 3 betting pre here since villain is a tight reg and we are way ahead of his button range but I'm still not sure I get the merit of the flop check raise, would love more thoughts on this. I think I get it but just trying to wrap my brain around it.
We had a BDFD, BDSD, Two overs and there are not that many hands he can call with. So he will be cbeting this board often, since it is dry. He can't call often because it is dry. There are bunch of cards that can come on the turn that increase our suck out equity if we are running into a set. Mainly though, if we never C.R as a bluff , then we can be exploited by him since he could reasonably fold AA here. Which is an awful result for our sets since this is our ideal line.

#9148 KingJames

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Posted 27 February 2012 - 11:25 PM

Excellent points, fighter.Great explanation of the flop c.r decision- having equity when you bluff is great!!!!
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#9149 SuperJon

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 03:32 AM

Great thoughts guys (and gal).For the record, I wimped out and check/folded the river.

#9150 fighter

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 04:36 AM

View PostSuperJon, on Tuesday, February 28th, 2012, 9:32 PM, said:

Great thoughts guys (and gal).For the record, I wimped out and check/folded the river.
I don't hate check folding. I doubt he turns many things into a bluff or that he is floating twice. Really does depend on how often he is going to try to call you down with none premiums as to which action is best.Nice hand.

#9151 KingJames

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 08:11 AM

View Postfighter, on Tuesday, February 28th, 2012, 5:36 AM, said:

I don't hate check folding. Nice hand.
+1
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#9152 Ninja Ace

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 08:49 AM

Hooray DOJ!
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#9153 QED

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 02:36 PM

AK bro. Posted ImageConverted by a herd of feral cowsPokerStars No-Limit Hold'em $0.10/$0.25 - 5 playersButton: $25.00 SB: $20.41 BB: $25.00 UTG: $52.17 CO: $20.00 Preflop: ($0.35) (5 players)UTG folds, CO raises to $0.75, Button folds, SB calls $0.65, BB raises to $2.75, CO raises to $5.75, SB calls $5, BB foldsFlop: ($14.25) :jh :D :ts (2 players)SB bets $0.25, CO raises to $2, SB calls $1.75Turn: ($18.25) :qh (2 players)SB checks, CO bets $5, SB calls $5River: ($28.25) :4h (2 players)SB checks, CO bets $7.25 and is all-in, SB calls $7.25SB showed :club: :3h, and lost with a pair of TensCO showed :5c :D, and won ($40.83) with a full house, Jacks full of TensCO won $40.83(Rake: $1.92)Beat, hero was still waiting to get dealt in :D

#9154 DiamondDixie

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 09:46 PM

Jon FWIW I don't hate check folding either but I just like betting more, of course I do have aggressive tendencies sometimes. :-)

#9155 QED

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 03:31 PM

View PostQED, on Wednesday, February 1st, 2012, 3:56 PM, said:

Feb goals25k hands at 25NLProfit one time
[x] 25k hands at 25NL[ ] Profit one timePosted ImageSo basically around the 20k hands mark I had a session that got me tilted for the first in a while so I quit and took a couple of days off. I had been having the same problems for a while at 25NL which I think were basically boiled down to giving fish too much respect and not always paying enough attention as 6 tables of FR is zzzz slow at times. Hopefully I've made some improvements to my game and I didn't just run good the last 6k hands but there seems to be some improvement there. My redline has certainly improved a bit, it was pretty terrible really. Total Poker: -$78.33Bonus etc: $70.00= -$8.33March goals25k handsprofitpay attention

#9156 SuperJon

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 06:40 PM

12k hands.+6 at 4nl-4 at 10nlOnly goal from this point forward. SERIOUSLY STOP TAKING SHOTS AT 10NL AND DON'T PLAY UNTIL I HAVE AT LEAST 25 BUY INS!!!I know some folks can play on a short roll. I am not one of those people.

#9157 DiamondDixie

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 07:57 PM

Posted ImageWon a prop bet to play 10K hands between 2/19 and today and finish in the black. Not the best 10K hands I ever played but not terrible either. 3.2BB/100 and $32 profit so I can't really complain. The first 6K hands were all in the red so the best thing I did was control my tilt and kept playing a decent game to recover. I switched from MTTs to cash on Jan. 11 and I'm just short of 30K hands over this period at 7BB/100 and $204 profit. Still a small sample but hopefully it's enough to mean I don't totally suck at cash. So far by stake all 6 max: 4NL = 13,814 hands, 4.2BB/100, $23.28 profit10NL = 15,089 hands, 8.7BB/100, $131.53 profit25NL = 470 hands, 42.5BB/100, $49.96 profit - I was a bad girl and took a shot, luckily it went the right way. (I was able to move to 10NL from a couple of small MTT cashes, obv not from my huge 4NL earnings)Goals for next month are a bit up in the air, I'm not sure how much of Poker Maximus MTTs I want to play yet. If I play MTTs a few days a week then I'll go for at least 10K hands of cash for the month if not I'm going to push for 25K and of course with a profit. I'd love to be at 25NL by the end of March too but I want at least 20 buy ins if not 25. I agree with Jon, I don't do that well on a super short BR.

#9158 KingJames

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 09:04 PM

Good stuff, people!I hardly played this month, but I will post a giraffe tomorrow and I am gonna destroy March!
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#9159 CobaltBlue

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Posted 01 March 2012 - 01:37 AM

Made like $7.7k in 80 hours despite losing $2.3k in MTTs.Here's my cobbled together graph...Posted Image
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#9160 KingJames

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Posted 01 March 2012 - 09:57 AM

Congrats, Marchant!
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