fighter, on Monday, April 26th, 2010, 2:04 PM, said:
It is still profitable to felt KK on most none A flops verse most players. Just not as profitable because you get less random punts and not a blanket statement because some people are unbalanced. On boards like J84r, you find competent people start to stack off with AJ, KJ again due the dry nature of the board and aggressive nature of the games. I like it, he most likely holdings here are 88-JJ. I might even bet larger on the river since those hands have essentially become bluff catchers. Not that he would be thinking that all too often at 25nl.
trystero, on Monday, April 26th, 2010, 2:14 PM, said:
I was prepared to bet/call $4 on the river, since I thought a smaller bet might induce spazziness, but I chickened out and bet an amount to make him play more "honestly."I think that's a great spot for us to bluff, because once he c/cs the turn then yea you're right he's got some SD value <Q...but will he call us often enough on the river w/a worse hand when we have a ten kicker? I wouldn't rule out a decent player deciding to pot control a better queen there, and it's very hard for him to have a worse one when he's coming in from MP.I like the smaller bet tbh...probably just overthinking it. It's 25nl; just bet for value.
Meh, $4 isn't really gonna induce any spazzes, it's not small enough. And if he's going to bluff he's normally going to bet, rather than seeing a bet and deciding to c/r, but if you want to it would have to be like $1. But like you said, QT isn't the nuts here at all and you're going to value cut yourself a lot trying to induce a spazz. Like when most of his range is JJ-88 and then better queens, he's going to call a smaller bet with the hands we beat and raise the hands we lose to. This is also why I don't think flatting QTs pre is greatttt here unless there are fish in the blinds. I'd prefer a 3b or fold I think.