128 replies to this topic

[hblask]

So Democrats have held the senate seat recently vacated by Teddy "Drink-and-Drive" Kennedy for over 50 years. Their current candidate, Coakley, had a 30 point lead as recently as December.

The may want to hold off on opening that champagne.

Brown, of course, would be the crucial vote that could kill the health care bill.

Coakley's campaign has collapsed in the last week, thanks to the following:

* She said in a debate that there were no terrorists in Afghanistan (despite several MA residents being killed there recently).

* One of her staffers (and Obama insider) knocked down a reporter for trying to ask her questions.

* She scoffed at the idea that she should stand outside Fenway Park shaking hands like her opponent has, and said instead she had to meet with important political insiders.

* She suggested that Catholics shouldn't work in emergency rooms if they objected to abortions. (MA has the second highest percentage of Catholics of any state).

Additionally, the Democratic machine rigged the debates so that the moderator was a lefty hack, and when he asked Brown about 'Kennedy's seat', Brown replied "It's the people's seat, not Kennedy's".

I know the Vikings have a big game this weekend, but I'm so geeky I'm actually more excited about this election on Tuesday.

One poll showed Brown up by 15, but it was a little know place with no real track record, and the sample included too few Democrats to be reliable. But the real number is probably around a 5 point lead now for Brown, from what I can tell.

Obama is going to MA to campaign for her this weekend. If the margin of victory for Brown is, say, more than 5 or 6 points, what will be Obama's spin?

[CaneBrain]

My guess is that Democrats will stop taking this race for granted and do just enough at the 23rd hour to ensure a small Coakley win.

2010 is going to be an interesting year, I can feel it.

[hblask]

My guess is that Democrats will stop taking this race for granted and do just enough at the 23rd hour to ensure a small Coakley win.

2010 is going to be an interesting year, I can feel it.

One article quoted a Coakley insider as saying that if Coakley didn't have a 5 point lead with about 5 days to go, she was going to lose. That was based totally on momentum, I guess, so I'm not sure how true it is. I suspect the Chicago Machine will get out the Dead People vote and you will be right, but still, at least it's exciting.

[dapokerbum]

I bet that there will be some debacle at which point one side will demand a recount which will inevitably leave the seat open until after the health care bill passes ...

[CaneBrain]

One article quoted a Coakley insider as saying that if Coakley didn't have a 5 point lead with about 5 days to go, she was going to lose. That was based totally on momentum, I guess, so I'm not sure how true it is. I suspect the Chicago Machine will get out the Dead People vote and you will be right, but still, at least it's exciting.

Nobody wants to hear you rail against zombie rights.

[85suited]

My guess is that Democrats will stop taking this race for granted and do just enough at the 23rd hour to ensure a small Coakley win.

2010 is going to be an interesting year, I can feel it.

I can't believe about to do this - CANE "QFT"

[hblask]

http://hubpolitics.com/2010/01/17/breaking...08-coakley-412/

A poll conducted by the Merriman River Group (MRG) and InsideMedford.com indicates that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 50.8% – 41.2% in the contest to fill the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Liberty Party candidate Joe Kennedy pulls in just 1.8% support, while 6.2% of voters are still not sure. Brown and Coakley both have most of their supporters locked in. 98% of both candidate’s supporters say they are definitely or probably going to vote for their candidate. In contrast, 22% of Kennedy’s supporters are just leaning toward him, suggesting that Brown and Coakley may both want to take aim at swaying those voters.

Not surprisingly, nearly all of Coakley’s supporters approve of President Obama’s job performance, while three-quarters of Brown’s supporters disapprove. Coakley may see a glimmer of hope in the fact that more than two-thirds of undecided voters approve of the president’s job performance while only 6% disapprove, especially in light of the president’s swing through the state to campaign for her later today.

[85suited]

I would think reasonable minds would agree that this is a referendum on OBAMA. We will see what the massholes say!

I would be suprised to see a Rep win in Mass.. considering their entire delegation is Dem

[85suited]

http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=...ckHomePage=true

intrade 65/35 Brown

[hblask]

Maths fail? Isn't 5 greater than 2.8? Anyway, this is a relatively respected polling place, although they tend to lean Democratic.

[EDIT: My math fail, it's 2.8% per candidate, isn't it? Nothing else would really make sense.]


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP...17468963846.pdf

Raleigh, N.C. – Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51-46 in Public Policy Polling’s final
survey of the Massachusetts Senate special election, an advantage within the poll’s
margin of error.

Brown’s lead comes thanks to an overwhelming advantage with independents and the
ability to pick off a decent number of Democrats. He’s getting the support of 19% of
voters in Coakley’s party, while she is winning just 8% of the Republican vote. The lead
with independents is 64-32.

Each candidate has seen a large decline in their favorability numbers as the campaign has
taken on an increasingly negative tone. Brown’s +19 at 56/37, down 13 points from his
+32 (57/25) standing a week ago. Coakley’s now in negative territory at 44/51 after
being at a positive 50/42 previously, a 15 point net decline.

Republicans continue to show much more enthusiasm about the election than Democrats,
with 89% of them saying they’re ‘very excited’ to go vote compared to 63% of Dems
who express that sentiment. Brown has a 59-40 lead among voters in that category.
The likely electorate for Tuesday’s election continues to express skepticism about the
Democratic health care plan with 48% saying they’re opposed to 40% who support it.
President Obama’s approval stands at 44/43.

“Brown has a small advantage right now but special elections are unusually volatile and
Martha Coakley is certainly still in this,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “She just needs to get more Democrats out to the polls.”

PPP surveyed 1,231 likely Massachusetts voters from January 16th to 17th. The margin
of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

[SAM_Hard8]

Brown by 8.76%

Book it.

[Balloon guy]

Brown by 8.76%

Book it.

Your mouth to God's ear...

[akoff]

I would think reasonable minds would agree that this is a referendum on OBAMA. We will see what the massholes say!

I would be suprised to see a Rep win in Mass.. considering their entire delegation is Dem

Based on the fact that this election is in Mass...and it is Teddy's seat....and it is close...and the Republican party has a reasonable chance at winning....I would say BHO should not get to comfortable in the White House.

Your mouth to God's ear...

please please please. the Lord works in some mysterious ways.

[85suited]

Maybe we should openly call for voter fraud like MSNBC's Ed Schulz

http://race42008.com/2010/01/19/msnbc-host...-vote-20-times/

[Zealous Donkey]

Maybe we should openly call for voter fraud like MSNBC's Ed Schulz

http://race42008.com/2010/01/19/msnbc-host...-vote-20-times/

I have a feeling there will be plenty. I don't believe a republican is going to win that seat no matter what any poll says. I Hope I am wrong, but I don't think I am.

[nutzbuster]

Brown loses in a run-off (ala Franken) as thousands of mysterious ballots suddenly show up at the last second. Mayhem ensues.


I just cannot believe Mass. will go red but I would love to be wrong on this one

[akoff]

Brown loses in a run-off (ala Franken) as thousands of mysterious ballots suddenly show up at the last second. Mayhem ensues.


I just cannot believe Mass. will go red but I would love to be wrong on this one

While i do agree with you on the Mass going red...maybe just maybe the people will realize how bad these guys in charge are...and finally pull the plug on them.

concern about voter fraud is certainly valid...this is a kennedy territory and nobody can stuff a balot box like a kennedy....cept those guys from Chicago

[Pot Odds RAC]

Brown loses in a run-off (ala Franken) as thousands of mysterious ballots suddenly show up at the last second. Mayhem ensues.

If this election is "decided" before June 1st I'll be amazed.

[Pot Odds RAC]

While i do agree with you on the Mass going red...maybe just maybe the people will realize how bad these guys in charge are...and finally pull the plug on them.

concern about voter fraud is certainly valid...this is a kennedy territory and nobody can stuff a balot box like a kennedy....cept those guys from Chicago

Kennedy himself may vote 4 or 5 times in this election.

Early & Often.

[LongLiveYorke]

Okay, so here's my idea.

Let's say I'm a Democrat and I'm interested in passing health care. In the event that we lose a Senate seat, we no longer have our immortal 60 senators to block a filibuster.

But, the Senate has already passed a health care bill. If the house votes in favor of that bill, it does to the President's desk and can be signed into law. The house is already saying that it may simply sign the senate version if they lose their 60th vote because that bill is better than no bill.

Here's my idea. Have the house vote in favor of the senate bill. Send the senate bill to the President's desk to be signed into law. Obama will then leave the bill on his desk and not sign it, at least not at first. He will pocket veto the bill until a time of his choosing. Then, have the house and senate continue negotiations on how to consolidate senate and house bills. This means that, no matter what happens, a health care bill will be passed. So, filibustering negotiations does nothing, because there's already a bill on Obama's desk waiting to be signed. This will force Republicans and Democrats to get together to actually make a bill that is BETTER instead of worrying about getting 60 votes by one party and trying to sabotage the bill by the other party.

In the event that the house and senate come together to make a better bill, Obama signs that and tears up the first one.

Genius? Is this politically feasible?