Getting Value On River

[droberts 3]

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 451034The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History ConverterSB: $25.60BB: $26.50UTG: $34.40Hero (CO): $37.95BTN: $22.05Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Q A UTG raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.75Flop: ($5.35) 7 6 J (2 players)UTG checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG calls $3.50Turn: ($12.35) Q (2 players)UTG checks, Hero bets $6.75, UTG calls $6.75River: ($25.85) 9 (2 players)UTG checks

[KingJames 11]

My initial reaction to to CIB as it's a three bet pot. I think any "value-bet" in this spot is going to be really thin. Any of his value hands he should raise the turn or bet the river... so I imagine he's c/f most of his hands and c/r a few really badly played hand. I think he c/c QJ too...I think he'll have Jx and fold a lot and he'll have busted clubs a lot, so I'd just check (but I'm a nit) I like your sizing tho

[hartman72 0]

I think I agree here w KJ here. I don't know if you can get any value by betting here.

[rrumsey 0]

kind of similar to my last post only we are IP, uhm he is never going to check raise anything worst, nor does he like ever call unless he is a total station. Had he bet anything a probe sized bet to imo PSB we snap it off all day, so just check, a world of hurt can happen if he bet at that river, we end up burning money a lot

[rrumsey 0]

My initial reaction to to CIB as it's a three bet pot. I think any "value-bet" in this spot is going to be really thin. Any of his value hands he should raise the turn or bet the river... so I imagine he's c/f most of his hands and c/r a few really badly played hand. I think he c/c QJ too...I think he'll have Jx and fold a lot and he'll have busted clubs a lot, so I'd just check (but I'm a nit) I like your sizing tho

pretty flawless there IMO

[Mills 0]

I think I like a value bet here.. There is no real reason to think we don't have the best hand... and we know he thinks hes good, calling 6.75 on that turn.. If he can call that turn I really don't see him going anywhere. He would be afraid to check a strong hand in this spot and risk a check behind imo. I would say he has a Jack and just dosen't believe you.. that's what it looks like to me... I would value bet pretty regular here. about 14.. give or take.

[mtdesmoines 2]

Bet 10. Profit.

[KingJames 11]

I think I like a value bet here.. There is no real reason to think we don't have the best hand... and we know he thinks hes good, calling 6.75 on that turn.. If he can call that turn I really don't see him going anywhere. He would be afraid to check a strong hand in this spot and risk a check behind imo. I would say he has a Jack and just dosen't believe you.. that's what it looks like to me... I would value bet pretty regular here. about 14.. give or take.

Agreed, we prob have the best hand. But that's not a license to bet. What hands that we beat can call a river bet. KQ is about it imo.We have the best hand, but a lot of his range is weak made hands and draws, which won't call a bet. I think it's way too thin to bet, but like I said, I'm a nit.I just think it's really hard to get 3-streets of value from one-pair hands.

[rrumsey 0]

Bet 10. Profit.

KQ is realistically the only hand that could call of that river, im pretty sure q10 is folding and anything else is reppoping or just folding, almost zero VALUE from that bet. We lose a lot more when we are behind, that isn't often but it is possible, but we don't win ANYTHING more when we are ahead, but risking more of our stack

[Syntonic 0]

Agreed, we prob have the best hand. But that's not a license to bet. What hands that we beat can call a river bet. KQ is about it imo.We have the best hand, but a lot of his range is weak made hands and draws, which won't call a bet. I think it's way too thin to bet, but like I said, I'm a nit.I just think it's really hard to get 3-streets of value from one-pair hands.

What?KQc makes sense, and it'll pay you off. AJ or KJ will too, depending on his stats.I bet 11-12 easily here.

KQ is realistically the only hand that could call of that river, im pretty sure q10 is folding and anything else is reppoping or just folding, almost zero VALUE from that bet. We lose a lot more when we are behind, that isn't often but it is possible, but we don't win ANYTHING more when we are ahead, but risking more of our stack

This isn't very good reasoning. We always win more when we're ahead. I think you guys are limiting his range way too much - he has been checking calling the whole way. Without stats, he seems like a passive/loose player and I think you're missing a lot of value by not betting here.

[KingJames 11]

What?KQc makes sense, and it'll pay you off. AJ or KJ will too, depending on his stats.I bet 11-12 easily here.

I think that KQc is definitely in his range, and I said KQ is about the only hand that can call. Also, KQc often c/r the flop imo.And I def disagree that KJ and AJ call. If you raise, get 3 bet, and someone bets 3 streets you're calling with AJ/KJ??

[Syntonic 0]

I think that KQc is definitely in his range, and I said KQ is about the only hand that can call. Also, KQc often c/r the flop imo.And I def disagree that KJ and AJ call. If you raise, get 3 bet, and someone bets 3 streets you're calling with AJ/KJ??

Personally no, but we're playing against an unknown who looks weak.

[rrumsey 0]

What?KQc makes sense, and it'll pay you off. AJ or KJ will too, depending on his stats.I bet 11-12 easily here.This isn't very good reasoning. We always win more when we're ahead. I think you guys are limiting his range way too much - he has been checking calling the whole way. Without stats, he seems like a passive/loose player and I think you're missing a lot of value by not betting here.

first part, where in the world do you live in where middle pair will call off 3 streets of value bets? stationville? second, WE AREN'T ALWAYS AHEAD, most of the time yes we are yes but what calls besides KQ that we beat! NOT MIDDLE PAIR!!!third, he may be loose passive, but we don't know that to be a fact, if he is passive or not, just guessing in the heat of things will lead to you getting trapped, not a huge risk on this hand, but for future reference, think about that. I dont think you get the real point here, we are probably best, but we have effectively gotten all the value left from this board. If you try and cbet, it is very thin, and we mostly need villain to screw up to make it work

[Syntonic 0]

Well what is he checking on the river that we'd be losing to?You're right, we're not always ahead. So, what could he have that beats us? You're effectively saying: I think we have the best hand here, but I'm scared he's trapping me. Trapping with what?You have no idea how light this guy is willing to pay us off. It is way more likely that he's going to call light than to check three times with a hand that beats us.

[rrumsey 0]

Well what is he checking on the river that we'd be losing to?You're right, we're not always ahead. So, what could he have that beats us? You're effectively saying: I think we have the best hand here, but I'm scared he's trapping me. Trapping with what?You have no idea how light this guy is willing to pay us off. It is way more likely that he's going to call light than to check three times with a hand that beats us.

nnnooooooooo!!!!!! im saying nothing calls the bet so why do it in the off chance it blows up in our face!!!!! please read what i am saying, ONLY ONE HAND CALLS OFF ANOTHER VBET, THAT IS IT!!!!!!!!!!A VBET CAN GET CALLED BY WORSE!!!!!! a bet on this river can't,..... get it? one hand = extremely thin

[Syntonic 0]

nnnooooooooo!!!!!! im saying nothing calls the bet so why do it in the off chance it blows up in our face!!!!! please read what i am saying, ONLY ONE HAND CALLS OFF ANOTHER VBET, THAT IS IT!!!!!!!!!!A VBET CAN GET CALLED BY WORSE!!!!!! a bet on this river can't,..... get it? one hand = extremely thin

lolEase off the caps and exclamation points.It doesn't matter if KQ is the only /good/ hand that realistically pays us off. I repeat: you have no idea how light this guy is willing to pay us off. What if he decides to be a hero and he puts you on AK? If you think you're ahead, you should bet for value. I mean jesus, if you think he has J10, KJ or AJ, then bet 6. Bet something.Does anyone else think checking this river is crazy?

[KingJames 11]

Does anyone else THINK checking this river is crazy?

No, it's low variance. And we get to show-down. We get to see what he raises UTG and calls our 3bet and c/c's 3 streets... that's a lot of info.If we bet $6 and get shoved on, are we ever good? And if we get called, and we're good it's super thin, that's my point.

[slink 1]

lolEase off the caps and exclamation points.Does anyone else think checking this river is crazy?

Yeah I am definitely betting in this spot. I don't believe he checks with a better hand and takes a chance on losing some extra cash.I bet about half the pot. He's got a Q or a J, but doesn't check with both.

[Jariso13 1]

I think you have to bet here. Hes playing it like he had a draw and missed it but at this level he could also easily have AJ or KJ and just be playing it super passively thinking hes beat but being unable to fold. I think your passing up way to much value by checking the river if he has one of those hands. I'd be very surprised if he threw out a cr on the river if you bet.

[KingJames 11]

The pot is now $25.85 and we have ~$21 behind.Are you all really wanting to bet less than half pot and over half our stack. If we're betting I think we either need to do the $6 like syntonic said or shove... $12 and such is awkward

[Biff Goods 0]

You guys all seem to be in agreement here so please flatter me because it's obviously something I'm missing....Why are we not betting more on the turn? Are 2 clubs not in his range? 6.75 seems a bit small...Just wondering...

[KingJames 11]

You guys all seem to be in agreement here so please flatter me because it's obviously something I'm missing....Why are we not betting more on the turn? Are 2 clubs not in his range? 6.75 seems a bit small...Just wondering...

Yes... pot was $12.35 plus $6.75 is $19.10, and he has to call $6.75 so he's getting 2.82-1 immediate odds. And with 9 clean outs he's like 4-1 against making the flush on the river. So mathematically he'd be drawing at a bad price.And if a club hits and he shoves, we can fold our one pair hand, so he doesn't have implied odds against us. If we had a set we may need to bet more, as we'll be hard-pressed to fold it when a club hits, imo

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 451034The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History ConverterSB: $25.60BB: $26.50UTG: $34.40Hero (CO): $37.95BTN: $22.05Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Q A UTG raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.75Flop: ($5.35) 7 6 J (2 players)UTG checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG calls $3.50Turn: ($12.35) Q (2 players)UTG checks, Hero bets $6.75, UTG calls $6.75River: ($25.85) 9 (2 players)UTG checks

[KingJames 11]

OK... let's break this down. Is the river a check or a bet? All of these % are guesstimates from Babs and I... feel free to change it up as you see fitting.When we check it back, we win the pot 80% of the time for an avg. profit of $20.68Let's say we bet $12. We get a fold 65%, we get called and are good 15%, and 20% we're beat.65% of $25.85 = 16.8015% of $49.85 = 7.48minus (-)20% of $49.85 = 9.9716.80 + 7.48 - 9.97 = $14.31Check, imo. I am also assuming that when he calls and we're good it's like AJ and KQ.If we shove, I def think AJ folds and only KQ can call us when we're good.I think we'd get a fold 70%, 10% call (win), 20% call (lose)70% of $25.85 = $18.1010% of $69.15 = $6.9220% of $69.15 = $13.83$18.10 + $6.92 - $13.83 = $11.19

[KingJames 11]

And, if we're good 90%... we'll get a fold 70%, call (good) 20% and call (lose) 10%.70% of $25.85 is $18.1020% of $49.85 is $9.9710% of $49.85 is $4.99$18.1 + $9.97 - $4.99 = $23.08and we check behind for $23.27

[Syntonic 0]

I think that's a pretty reasonable argument. I made up some numbers for betting $7Betting $7Fold 45%Call 35%Lose 20%45% of $25.85 = $11.6335% of $39.85 = $13.9520% of $39.85 = $7.9711.63 + 13.95 - 7.95 = $17.61I've thought about it for a few minutes, and I don't think he would have 10-9c or 8-9c since he would probably jam the flop. But, then again, he could just have passive stats and be playing that way.Ugh..I've gone back and forth a few times. I still feel like this is a bet because I really think he has a jack and will call something like $6-8 for odds.