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daniel's bust at the 2005 mirage showdown


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#1 BluffHappy

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Posted 23 May 2005 - 03:04 PM

According to cardplayer.com, Daniel has just been knocked out in the following hand:With 2 limpers ahead of him Daniel Negreanu called from the small blind and the big blind checked. The flop came 8s Js 10h. Jean Robert Bellande bet out 575 which was raised to 1500 by Negreanu. Bellande re-raised to 4500. Negreanu re-raised to 8k, at which point Belland jumped out of his seat and moved all in. Negreanu called instantly. Negreanu showed J/10 for top two pair, and Bellande flipped over 10s 7s. The turn brought a 5s, giving Bellande the flush. The river, brought a 4h, sealing the deal for Negreanu. Asking Negreanu after the hand why he called, Negreanu replied, "It's BOBBY! He overplays draws all the time..." With that hand, Belland increased his stack to just over 70K and claims the chip lead.It is also important to note that both Daniel and Jean were the chip leaders at their table with about double their starting stack.Now I'm a huge fan of Daniel and I'm only being critical in hopes of improving my own game, but I can't help but feel that he shouldn't have committed all of his chips into the pot on the flop when he thought he was only a 2 to 1 favorite. If it was later in the tournament and the blinds were huge, it'd be a different story, but in the 2nd level of a 4 day tournament with small blinds, even when you're a 2 to 1 favorite, you're risking your tournament life to the luck of the cards.I think I would have called Bellande's reraise to 4500 to see what would develop. If a spade hits and I put him on a spade draw, then I can safetly muck my hand (unless the spade was a 10 of course). If a spade doesn't hit on the turn, I can aggressively bet and more effectively move my opponent off his draw since I'm now a 4.5 to 1 favorite in the hand.Please understand I am in no way bashing Daniel on his play. He's a far superior player to me, but even the best make mistakes. I guess what I'd really like to know, hopefully from Daniel, is if he thinks he made a mistake and overplayed his hand, or if he'd play it the same way every single time.All constructive criticism of my analysis of this hand is welcome.~Mike

#2 cdddc75

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Posted 23 May 2005 - 03:40 PM

Agreed. While Daniel was a 58-42 favorite, it was silly to raise again after Bellande's reraise...especially when Daniel had him read so well.Calling allin is horrible, even if you're Daniel.
"I'd root for Hellmuth against my Mother if I knew Phil was holding the Krablar." -- BigDMcGee

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#3 Chief911

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Posted 24 May 2005 - 10:57 AM

Its hard to understand unless you have played with Bobby.I played with him at the 5 diamond 2k event last year that he went on to finish 2nd. We were both co-chip leaders at the table with about 50 people left. He just runs over a table. And if you want to take any control, you have to pick a spot, and go. He WAY overplays hands, but that's part of what works so well for him. He picks up so many pots, that when he gets it all in with the worst of it, he can usually absorb the hit if he loses.If you knew Bobby, you'd know why Daniel put all his chips in.Nick

#4 cmills522

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Posted 24 May 2005 - 02:47 PM

I'd say getting all-in as a 2-1 favorite would be a solid choice ... you cant get in at much better spots than that

#5 cdddc75

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Posted 24 May 2005 - 02:57 PM

cmills522 said:

I'd say getting all-in as a 2-1 favorite would be a solid choice ... you cant get in at much better spots than that
2-1 is fine. 58-42 is marginal.Chief911's comment does help explain it though. I would have gone for a better spot, but I'm no Daniel either.
"I'd root for Hellmuth against my Mother if I knew Phil was holding the Krablar." -- BigDMcGee

"Poker is 98% luck, I'm trying to make it 97.8% luck. " -- JFarrell20, deported village idiot

#6 jbb1366

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Posted 07 November 2005 - 01:47 PM

Why would DN not be worried about Q9? or 79? Or a set? I can see re-raising him because he overplays draws, but I would think you re-evaluate when you're put all in with two pair. IF you're right about putting him on a draw it's a dangerous play, and you could be a huge dog if he has one of those monsters like a made straight or a set.

#7 Jennings7

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Posted 16 November 2005 - 11:32 PM

hohohohoho
Erin Andrews...mmmmmmmmm.




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