18 replies to this topic

[pogiolithis]

Last night I'm playing a 2/5 NLHE live game in town. It's short handed with about 6 people. Everyone there is for the most part your basic novice player except the one seat, he's decent and can make some good reads. So a little background before we get in the hand - because I think it's important. The guy in the five seat is not a terrible player by any means but, he's also not that great either. He's conservative but, not patient. Caught him once on a pure bluff and once on a semi-bluff. Also he over bets, a lot -- a little too much. Almost like he's scared. It's odd I can't seem to explain it very well.So here we go I'm in the six seat with J8 of spades. I figure I'd limp and I'm in great position so what's the worst that would happen--I have to fold. The five seat makes it ten all day and I call as does everyone else. The flop comes out 8 9 10 with two clubs. Not the best flop for me but, we'll see what happens. Everyone checks and the five seat bets out ten. I had already decided that if no one bet I would bet out pot sized and hope to take it then and there. So now it's ten to me, I think the bet is odd. I was 99% positive he didn't have a straight, he would have to have JQ and he wouldn't raise with that hand. It had to be more along the lines of AK, AQ or AJ because I saw him before with A, 10s in the same position and didn't raise. Also something told me he didn't have a pocket pair nor did he have a pair yet. I wasn't completely sure but, I was close.So I decide to see where he's at and raise forty. Everyone folds but him. Without hesitation says he's "All-in!" It's for $275 and I have about $350 in front of me. "Why! Why! Why!" is what I'm screaming in my head. "Why did I play this hand?!" "Why did he have to go all-in on me?"Now I'm really thinking and I remember a few hands back we were both on a draw and I hit on the river. He asked me if I would have called his all-in on the turn. I said "Most likely not but, it's hard to say." I just can't understand why he bet ten gets a raise and goes all-in. It didn't feel like a set, a straight or an over pair. He's not a good player I keep telling myself. He doesn't trap I watched him for an hour and a half and never saw him trap once--even when he could.(part of my thought process)I was telling myself I could take a $60 loss on the hand get back to the game. I can make the sixty back in no time. If I call and lose I'll be done for the night--I still have money left over but, terribly short stacked. I think he has AQ or AK of clubs. I again have J8 so if my read is wrong and he has top pair I can still get any 8, J, 7, or Q. Does he have a pair? But your playing so good right now... dump it. But does he have a pair? Why is he betting so much?I've tried to give everyone my entire thought process to help with the scenario. I curious to read what everyone else thinks I should have done or what they would have done. It's not a mathematical question because I know I'm getting terrible odds right now. It's more about the read. I'll post what I did here in a little bit.

[CrAcKeDaCeS]

Like you said, it's not a mathematical question, it's just based on the read you had on the guy. It really depends how good you're reads had been all day. When I play, I base it about 70% on my reads and instincts and about 30% on the math/odds side of it. In this situation, I probably would have laid it down...if he does have AK or a similar, he could be suited in and he's got a chance to outdraw you, whether or not you make your straight. As good as your reads were, I think laying down might have been your best choice. I'm anxious to find out what you did.

[Smasharoo]

Um, fold?Why is this even a question.By the way:So a little background before we get in the hand - because I think it's important. The guy in the five seat is not a terrible player by any means but, he's also not that great either. He's conservative but, not patient. Caught him once on a pure bluff and once on a semi-bluff. Also he over bets, a lot -- a little too much. Almost like he's scared. It's odd I can't seem to explain it very well.Pretty much describes a player who's much better than you. I'm not saying that's the case here, but when people say "He's ok, but not great. He overbets too much, I cought him bluffing once" etc. It's ussually shortly followed by "I don't know why he allways has more money than me".I think he remembered when you said you likely wouldn't call an all in in this situation and pushed because he realized you'd be suspicious and call.I'm betting you called and he flipped over TT, and he laughed the whole way home.

[fluxer]

I would have called his initial bet of $10 and saw the turn card. Then I would have seen if the turn helped me get my straight or two pair and played the hand from there.There's really no reason to raise on the flop. Also, with a flop like that, if you are just calling, you can often feign a big hand on the turn even if you don't hit; it's not uncommon for people to just call bets on the flop when they hit a set or straight (both of which are very likely with a flop like 89T).

[ticccal]

I would have just call the flop........now I'd have to fold. Taking a stab at the pot might be a nice play in limit or if he had checked to you in NL, but it's NL... u got popped, and I'd have to fold unless that read was locked.......

[Smasharoo]

Re-reading your post it seems like you did a really good job of talking yourself into calling an all in with bottom pair and straight draw, and are kind of looking for people to agree with you about it.Just an observation.

[Nacho]

Yeah, I have to agree with everyone else...You've pretty much trapped yourself. I don't see how you could call. Eat the money you've lost and play another day, find a better spot, but this is not one you want to get involved with. Please tell me you folded.

[pogiolithis]

CrAcKeDaCeS:I made a bad read early into the night with one of his friends, thought he had an A when he had a J. But my reads I feel are generally pretty good. The other night I was playing at the Belligo on their 2/5 and in 4th position get KQs call the $20 pre-flop raise. Flop comes 44Q initial raiser bet our $75. Everyone folds, I was last to act, after some thought I thought he had to have AA or KK most likely KK. He didn't want to see an A. I fold and he shows me KK. In this situation (the one from last night) the player wasn't that good. I'm not saying I'm the best by any means but, we all know an inexperienced player when they sit down. I saw him raise before with KK but, he raised $20 pre-flop. Also he didn't raise his pocket pairs 10's or lower so I couldn't put him on a small pocket pair or a set. Since he raised an extra five pre-flop I'm think A-K,Q,J. That is also why I can't put him on a straight at the moment nor can I put him on any pair right now. If he didn't raise with A,10s earlier.He does have a chance to out draw me. Also I do think he is on clubs, either AK or AQ which puts me at a 2% favorite. Not the best odds I'd like to have but, also he has to improve his hand. If he's on a draw it's a nice draw but, I still have best hand right now. If he out draws me that's okay I still made a good read.Smasharoo:this is a question because I feel sometimes we're all in pots that don't smell right. When math is not part of the equation. It's more about the player, essentially it's No Limit Poker. When every situation is unique to your cards, your position, the player and the bet. I see a lot of questions of "what would you do..." and they are a lot of time about math and to be honest math is the easiest part of poker. I wanted to post a question about a read I had and see if anyone agrees with what I have come up with. I understand that in this situation I should fold. That is exactly what his bet is telling me. It's power poker - "You can't call my raise, it's stupid! You have to fold."This is why I think reads are important. There are other players at the table I would fold to with out thinking. If he would have check-raised me I would have folded with out thinking.I'm not sure if I was talking myself into calling an all-in or not. I think it was more of just really running through all the possible hands he could have based on what I saw from him earlier that night. I wanted to call just as much as I wanted to fold. If he would have re-raised $100 I would have folded but, the all-in seems really odd. I'm not sure if you've ever been in that situation or not.I'm not trying to influence anyone. I'm just looking for opinions on how everyone else would see the situation. I still say he has A -K,Q of clubs.

[Smasharoo]

If he would have re-raised $100 I would have folded but, the all-in seems really odd. I'm not sure if you've ever been in that situation or not. All the time.What you need to understand though is that poker's a game about winning money, not about testing each other's manliness. If he pushes all in here with a hand worse than yours, it's his mistake and you're going to catch him at it at some point. He wins, what, $50 (I'm lazy and don't feel like reading the pot size again) by risking $250? Who cares? Pushing all in to win a small pot works every time but once. Be the guy who's there the time it doesn't work, not the guy who pays off a fast played flopped straight.I'll push all in with a monster on the flop often, because people just won't think I'd possible play a big hand that fast. Also, I tend to tilt people a lot and they'll call because they want to see me lose so badly, but that's just me.

[pogiolithis]

I hear what your saying Smasharoo. It wasn't a test of who was the better poker player. It was a question within myself of "With all the information you have gone through, do I have the best hand right now?" At that particular time I thought I did. If he out drew me that was that but, I made the right read and I did have the best hand. Isn't so much about poker trusting yourself?So, I call.Turns out he had TT and I lost-- Just joking. He had AQ of clubs part of me was excited that I made the right read but, the other part knew I was not out of the woods. The nice part is he only had one over card. He had 18 outs: any club (12), any Jack (3) and any ace (3) that left me a 52% favorite to win the hand. the turn came a 2H and the river 8D and I took down the pot. I think it was a situational play next time the read might be different and I'll fold. I thought I made a good read. I've also made good reads that turned out to hurt really bad. As well as bad reads that still hurt pretty bad. Would this hand be any different if I would have flopped the straight? I'm still dead to a club and felt he was on a club draw the whole time.I guess I was wondering if anyone would have came to the same conclusion. Reguardless of the bet size, the actions that he had and displayed in the past along with the betting patten, didn't match up with the cards that were on the flop.

[Smasharoo]

Turns out he had TT and I lost-- Just joking. He had AQ of clubs part of me was excited that I made the right read but, the other part knew I was not out of the woods. The nice part is he only had one over card. He had 18 outs: any club (12), any Jack (3) and any ace (3) that left me a 52% favorite to win the hand. I think this is supposed to be AJs no? He'd be a favorite with AQ or AK which is a nother good reason not to call.Still a bad call. It's not a question of if it turned out to be ok this time, it's a question of will it turn out to be ok 60 times out of the next 100.

[pogiolithis]

Why AJs? If a J falls I have two pair he has one. If He has AQs if a J falls I have two pair he just made a striaght. He is not a favorite with AK or AQ. It wasn't about whether or not I won the pot. It did work out and that is great for me but, rather it is about trusting your instints and your ability to read another player. Maybe the queston should have been worded differently: Do you agree witht the read if so, call or fold? If you disagree with the read why?I know I'm not going to win this hand more than 52% of the time. Still that is a profit of $1,888.00. I was just hoping that this was one of those 52 times. Just like when your a 75% favorite and you have all your money in. You hope it's not one of those 25 time you loose.

[hjkl]

Congrats on the read...Now u relize y so many poeple r addicted to poker. The ability to read and be right is just an awesome feeling. I had on the other day when I raised was re-raised and folded AK off suit; my opponent showed KK

[Gnobby]

pogiolithis said:

He had 18 outs: any club (12), any Jack (3) and any ace (3) that left me a 52% favorite to win the hand.

Well ... nice pot. question though ... how many clubs are there in this deck you play with?

[Smasharoo]

He is not a favorite with AK or AQ. You understand it's 50/50 almost exactly with AQs, and that he's slightly ahead with AKs?It's a bad call. It's a marginal call if you're read is correct 90% of the time.If youre read is right 85% of the time it's a terrible call.Get over the hand reading aspect of NL. Good NL players don't make marginal calls with a small overlay.

[Meotch08]

nice read buddy. If you are confident in your ability to read someone well, as it sounds like you are you definately made the right play in Doyle's book i believe he said the math part of poker is only 10% of it and the other 90% is tells etc. (i dont remember exactly how he put it and i can't find it right now).

[Smasharoo]

If you are confident in your ability to read someone well, as it sounds like you are you definately made the right play in Doyle's book i believe he said the math part of poker is only 10% of it and the other 90% is tells etc.Boy that Doyle really knows how to market a book, doesn't he?I think what he was trying to express is that the math part is easy, and the reading part is hard.Most people think they are great at reading people when really they aren't and they make all kinds of dumb calls, ignoring the ones they're wrong about and posting the ones they were right about saying silly things like "Poker's a game of trusting your instincts" etc.Just my oppinion.Nothing makes me more money than people "trusting their reads" and calling all ins while drawing almost dead.

[Nacho]

I have to agree with Smasharoo. Whether or not it worked out, it was not worth the risk. Let him throw his entire stack at a small pot all night and just bust him when your cards come. Let this one go.

[Crocolyle]

I think the underlying problem with this hand is calling the initial preflop raise with J-8s. In a NL or PL type of game you really have to consider the Gap Concept when deciding whether to call, raise, or fold preflop. This is one of the most important concepts ever written about starting hands in poker.