63 replies to this topic

[savagerebel]

That is almost enough to pay for rent this month. Keep it up.

[rcooj_7]

Went 4/4 yesterdayhad Vikings first halfvikings -3Jets +9Ball st (whatever the spread was)at 1,770ish$400 of it pending today....

[Tactical Bear]

rcooj_7, on Sunday, January 17th, 2010, 6:37 AM, said:

ok, my big update..... I changed the way i looked at my bets on the 18th of december.... since that day, i have gone 59-48-3 which to my rusty numbers is somewhere around 55% (am i wrong?) which is very fair.... My bets have ranged from $20 to $200. I have gone away from the 6 unit sytem and have started a 10% and 5% br system. (after talking to my "guy" he suggested that this is best for the limited br) the bets that were down to $20 were emotional/not as much research picks. or picks that i get from other cappers.... I have NOT capped all of my games, a good portion of my games have been favorites of pro cappers. I wish i could take credit for them all, that isnt the point though it is all aobut the bottom line!!! Money!!!I was skeptical about sharing my actual BR, but this is a decent community and i really dont care that much...110 wagers59-48-3 recordStarted at $1,000 on Dec 18thNow at $1,435.34 as of january 16thwith $7,770.56 in total wages thoughts?questions?

1) You're putting way too much of your roll on the line with each play. You are very likely to go bust. If you're truly picking at a 55% clip, then the optimal wager size -- assuming you're only concerned with asymptotic wealth-- about 5.5% of your bankroll on each play. I think a 2.6% edge is incredibly optimistic, however; you're annihilating the book if you're pushing a constant 1%-1.5% edge. If your winrate is actually a little closer to, say, 53.5% -- still very, very good -- then you should be risking approximately 2.3% of your bankroll on each play. Overbetting is always worse than underbetting (which I can prove , but for now you'll just have to trust me that betting more than the optimal amount will increase the probability of a bad result, and decrease the probability of a good result, more severely than would underbetting by the same fraction), so if you don't have a perfect understanding of your true winrate, you should err on the side of conservatism. That is: if you think you're a 53.5% winner, bet as if you're a 53.2% winner. A 53.2% winner is going to want to fire about 1.7% of his bankroll at each number. 5% of bankroll per wager is suboptimal, and increases your potential risk of ruin, EVEN IF YOU'RE A BIG WINNER. Besides that, if you start making mistakes -- if your methodology becomes flawed for whatever reason, or if the market corrects for an inefficiency you're exploiting -- you're going to go broke before you can figure it out. 2) In 2008, after adjusting for the change in my unit-size during the course of the year, and after after accounting for the varying sizes of my bets (based on what I'm almost certain was an arbitrary set of "criteria"), we can say I bet TO WIN 1x every play (on sides and totals, at about a 9-1 ratio) during the MLB season. I ended up posting profits of more than 135 units. I would not be surprised if every person who reads this post -- myself included -- spent the rest of his life trying to match that number, and never came close. It was an absurd, infinitesimally-likely season. During that magical 2008 season, I had plenty of 100-wager stretches where I looked like a giant turd. I also had 100-wager stretches where I looked like God's Gift to Bases. In 2009 I finished +19x. I would take +19x every year again for the rest of my life. I'd borrow 200K, and never have to work again. If you averaged my two seasons together, I'd still look like one of the best bases cappers on the planet, and that's just not the case. What I'm saying is: Even after two full seasons of a high-volume sport, I'm unwilling to say I'm a winning player, let alone that I'm a BIG winning player. You've made fewer than 110 bets. Don't assume you're a winner because of it.

rcooj_7, on Monday, January 18th, 2010, 2:46 PM, said:

Went 4/4 yesterdayhad Vikings first halfvikings -3Jets +9Ball st (whatever the spread was)at 1,770ish$400 of it pending today....

No. Stop doing this. (I realize I just informed everyone of what my bases record was in 2008 while offering zero substantiation, but I was just trying to prove a point.) Post your plays before they happen; post the juice; post the, uh, spread; post the amount risked. If you're serious about getting better, post your plays somewhere public every day, and define your record based only on what you can prove. It's easy to lie to others, and not that much harder to lie to yourself. God knows I've been guilty of it. The easiest way to keep yourself honest is to force yourself to be honest, but tying your hands and posting your plays before they go off.

[rcooj_7]

Tactical Bear, on Wednesday, January 20th, 2010, 12:02 PM, said:

1) You're putting way too much of your roll on the line with each play. You are very likely to go bust. If you're truly picking at a 55% clip, then the optimal wager size -- assuming you're only concerned with asymptotic wealth-- about 5.5% of your bankroll on each play. I think a 2.6% edge is incredibly optimistic, however; you're annihilating the book if you're pushing a constant 1%-1.5% edge. If your winrate is actually a little closer to, say, 53.5% -- still very, very good -- then you should be risking approximately 2.3% of your bankroll on each play. Overbetting is always worse than underbetting (which I can prove , but for now you'll just have to trust me that betting more than the optimal amount will increase the probability of a bad result, and decrease the probability of a good result, more severely than would underbetting by the same fraction), so if you don't have a perfect understanding of your true winrate, you should err on the side of conservatism. That is: if you think you're a 53.5% winner, bet as if you're a 53.2% winner. A 53.2% winner is going to want to fire about 1.7% of his bankroll at each number. 5% of bankroll per wager is suboptimal, and increases your potential risk of ruin, EVEN IF YOU'RE A BIG WINNER. Besides that, if you start making mistakes -- if your methodology becomes flawed for whatever reason, or if the market corrects for an inefficiency you're exploiting -- you're going to go broke before you can figure it out. 2) In 2008, after adjusting for the change in my unit-size during the course of the year, and after after accounting for the varying sizes of my bets (based on what I'm almost certain was an arbitrary set of "criteria"), we can say I bet TO WIN 1x every play (on sides and totals, at about a 9-1 ratio) during the MLB season. I ended up posting profits of more than 135 units. I would not be surprised if every person who reads this post -- myself included -- spent the rest of his life trying to match that number, and never came close. It was an absurd, infinitesimally-likely season. During that magical 2008 season, I had plenty of 100-wager stretches where I looked like a giant turd. I also had 100-wager stretches where I looked like God's Gift to Bases. In 2009 I finished +19x. I would take +19x every year again for the rest of my life. I'd borrow 200K, and never have to work again. If you averaged my two seasons together, I'd still look like one of the best bases cappers on the planet, and that's just not the case. What I'm saying is: Even after two full seasons of a high-volume sport, I'm unwilling to say I'm a winning player, let alone that I'm a BIG winning player. You've made fewer than 110 bets. Don't assume you're a winner because of it. No. Stop doing this. (I realize I just informed everyone of what my bases record was in 2008 while offering zero substantiation, but I was just trying to prove a point.) Post your plays before they happen; post the juice; post the, uh, spread; post the amount risked. If you're serious about getting better, post your plays somewhere public every day, and define your record based only on what you can prove. It's easy to lie to others, and not that much harder to lie to yourself. God knows I've been guilty of it. The easiest way to keep yourself honest is to force yourself to be honest, but tying your hands and posting your plays before they go off.

good stuff good stuff... I am not here to prove anything, i am not posting to try and get people to follow. I never plan on selling my daily picks to anyone. i am here just for entertainment purposes. for myself and for everyone else....Ive talked to a pro capper on numerious occasions on the phone about BR managment. and 10% is not optimal, that is correct. What we are looking to do is to start big and grow fast, and once the BR has reached a high point, say $5,000 we can tone is down and start basing our unit % on how our win rate is. and you are so right, when it is bad it is REALLY bad, but when it is going good... it is going REALLY good.... and i am not lying about my posts... I just dont find myself with the time to play my plays then come on here and break down each game, ive got school, work, and I continue to try and persuade the virgin i am dating to **** me... (a BJ is good and everything, but COME'ON) I will be more then happy to copy and paste you my transaction history from my BetUs account. on there it has the ticket number that you can call the site and aske what the play was, it has the price date line, spread all that sexy shit!!!! other then that... ive been getting crushed this last week. (here is your honesty)monday -325Tuesday -145Wedendsday -157.27Thursday -70Friday -158SATURDAY +727.28 I went four for four for 20% on each.... probably the stupidest thing in the world (obviously) but the capper i follow felt so highly of the plays i was convinced that it was an atleast 3/4 day....Tactical, i am going to PM you something, see if you think i should put it on the board....

[rcooj_7]

Quick update....I hope to pass 2k tonight.... should be a fun watch... lots of college action......

[rcooj_7]

almost a month from my last post. Have been stag on bets. not much movement in BR since last showing up.526 wagers completed since December 18th 2009. $32,713.41 in completed wagers$1,179.18 in total wins$2,179.18 current BRI do NOT have my wager record as of yet. I will hopefully have my record done by tomorrow. I am going to work on my NFL, NCAAFB, NCAABB, NBA, NHL and TENNIS records. Hopefully then i will break down my spread record, total record, parlay record and teaser record. I am excited about getting all these numbers in front of me, and seeing where i am most +$$$ and can focus on that area. I want to look at my worst areas and either fade or fix my problems. That is all i have for now. If anyone cares... hahaALERT:Boston opens at -12.5, now at -11.5 with 67% action on them.Portland opens at -4.5, now at -4 with 100% of action on them

[wsox8]

rcooj_7, on Saturday, February 27th, 2010, 2:01 AM, said:

almost a month from my last post. Have been stag on bets. not much movement in BR since last showing up.526 wagers completed since December 18th 2009. $32,713.41 in completed wagers$1,179.18 in total wins$2,179.18 current BRI do NOT have my wager record as of yet. I will hopefully have my record done by tomorrow. I am going to work on my NFL, NCAAFB, NCAABB, NBA, NHL and TENNIS records. Hopefully then i will break down my spread record, total record, parlay record and teaser record. I am excited about getting all these numbers in front of me, and seeing where i am most +$$$ and can focus on that area. I want to look at my worst areas and either fade or fix my problems. That is all i have for now. If anyone cares... hahaALERT:Boston opens at -12.5, now at -11.5 with 67% action on them.Portland opens at -4.5, now at -4 with 100% of action on them

It's still funny to me that you can make bets but not pay me back. You claim you are short of money but if you really needed it you would have cashed out of your book a while ago.

[rcooj_7]

rcooj_7, on Saturday, February 27th, 2010, 12:01 AM, said:

ALERT:Boston opens at -12.5, now at -11.5 with 67% action on them.Portland opens at -4.5, now at -4 with 100% of action on them

well that turned out well, I never made it official, nor did i play it.... but good to know i am on the right side :/go Minnesotapatience wsox, i payed off the other member i had owed last week..... you will get it

[king_tanner]

You are posting your daily picks while you owe people money. Something isn't clicking. You must not care about your reputation around here.

[rcooj_7]

Minnesota is official.Indiana -3.5Warriors -4OK St +7...... ( game started already)Big winnerNew York Knicks +2.5..... going to add to the bet if the move back to +3

[rcooj_7]

king_tanner, on Saturday, February 27th, 2010, 1:21 PM, said:

You are posting your daily picks while you owe people money. Something isn't clicking. You must not care about your reputation around here.

its already shot

[rcooj_7]

Basketball NBA - Charlotte Bobcats -3 -110 for GameBasketball NBA - Memphis Grizzlies +1½ -110 for GameBasketball NCAA - West Virginia -6½ -110 for GameVIP PLAY Basketball NCAA - NC Greensboro -5½ -110 for Game VIP PLAYBasketball NBA - Utah Jazz -6½ -110 for GameBasketball NBA - Cleveland Cavaliers -11 -110 for GameBasketball NCAA - Oklahoma +13½ -110 for GameBasketball NCAA - Georgetown @ West VirginiaTotal O 136 -110 for GameIce Hockey NHL - Colorado Avalanche -110 for Game

[kobe2odom8]

Mods can you close this shit. This guy is clearly scum and hasn't paid people back and continues to post his ridiculous picks that no one cares about. Lets ban this guy already.

[rcooj_7]

kobe2odom8, on Monday, March 1st, 2010, 9:03 PM, said:

Mods can you close this shit. This guy is clearly scum and hasn't paid people back and continues to post his ridiculous picks that no one cares about. Lets ban this guy already.

at least ban AFTER i ship...

[kobe2odom8]

rcooj_7, on Monday, March 1st, 2010, 9:47 PM, said:

at least ban AFTER i ship...

i agree. please confirm in 2012 when shipped

[rcooj_7]

kobe2odom8, on Monday, March 1st, 2010, 9:48 PM, said:

i agree. please confirm in 2012 when shipped

haha. shipping dec 22nd 2012.... I owe $70... whats a fair amount of interest on that? its been about 4 weeks.

[BigDMcGee]

[mrdannyg]

TBear should charge admission to this thread.

[rcooj_7]

picks for today *** Basketball NCAA - Cal Santa Barbara -8½** Basketball NCAA - Wake Forest +6½* Basketball NBA - Denver Nuggets -6 * Basketball NCAA - Saint Louis +2½* Basketball NCAA - Notre Dame -1½* Basketball NBA - Philadelphia 76ers +8½** Basketball NBA - Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas MavericksTotal U 202add** Basketball NCAA - BYU -6 -110 for Game* Basketball NBA - Los Angeles Clippers +5

[nutzzcase]

You are a pretty delusional guy I must say.