63 replies to this topic

[rcooj_7]

ALERT:
Boston opens at -12.5, now at -11.5 with 67% action on them.
Portland opens at -4.5, now at -4 with 100% of action on them






Follow along for my sports betting future!!!!! my goal is to become a successful bettor and actually gain a substantial income from sports wagering. In order to accomplish this, it is essential to maintain a 55% wagering record. I started my venture as a serious bettor on 12/12/09..... Ill keep you posted

[rcooj_7]

looks like i am going 3/4 on the first day

[rcooj_7]

todays picks are up!

[kobe2odom8]

gl brah

[rcooj_7]

gl brah

thanks pimp. so far so good

[psufans2]

thanks pimp. so far so good

good stuff brahh... mind explaining "units" and giving your theory on how your using units in this matter? must say pretty solid thus farr brahh

[wsox8]

Bulls @ Bucks +2.5 (3 units)

I'm confused by the way you wrote this. Is this Bulls +2.5 or Bucks +2.5?

[rcooj_7]

I'm confused by the way you wrote this. Is this Bulls +2.5 or Bucks +2.5?

Oh my bad... it was Bulls +2.5
I dont know why i messed that one up

[rcooj_7]

good stuff brahh... mind explaining "units" and giving your theory on how your using units in this matter? must say pretty solid thus farr brahh

yeah bud... 6 unit system is a system that i was introduced to by a pro capper from Vegas. Very simple. you have a set amount per unit, in my case, I wager $20 per unit. 6 unit = $120. 1 unit = $20. etc. 6 units being your strongest bets and one being your smallest of course.... Most cappers, even the average Joe trys to reach the Crucial mark of 60% BUT if you use a unit system you can still profit from 50% or even a little below 50%!

look at it this way, I have 10 bets on the day. I have three bets at 6 units each and win them all. five bets at 3 units and only win two bets, with two bets at one unit losing both

3(wins)x6(Units)=18 units
2(wins)x3(units)=6 units
I won 24 units today and only lost 11 units
3(loses)x3(units)=-9 units
2(loses)x1(units)=-2 units

I only picked 5 out 0f 10 bets correct today but i am up $230, if i kept all of my units/per game the same, I would be down on the day due to the juice.

I can honestly tell you guys that I really want to capp for a living down the future, or if not, at least cap for a sizable income.... I research at least 90 minutes a night on weekdays, and ive been researching up to 4 hours on weekends.... That is where I get my picks and how much i want to lay. I use every factor when choosing a bet, trends/stats/conditions/and many more i cant really think of. I cross refrence websites that are giving out public favorites. I have a list of pro cappers that annalize and break down some games. Some cappers will have "free picks" that they have, these tend to be strong bets, because in the long run that capper wants you to be a client. He will probably give you one of his better bets for that day. Something that you want to conentrate on is trying to put yourself in the shoes of Vegas.... Who do they want the public to bet on and you bet against it (contrarian to a degree) If vegas likes the bet, YOU like the bet!

anything else let me know... I am about to post a couple of my picks for today

[psufans2]

yeah bud... 6 unit system is a system that i was introduced to by a pro capper from Vegas. Very simple. you have a set amount per unit, in my case, I wager $20 per unit. 6 unit = $120. 1 unit = $20. etc. 6 units being your strongest bets and one being your smallest of course.... Most cappers, even the average Joe trys to reach the Crucial mark of 60% BUT if you use a unit system you can still profit from 50% or even a little below 50%!

look at it this way, I have 10 bets on the day. I have three bets at 6 units each and win them all. five bets at 3 units and only win two bets, with two bets at one unit losing both

3(wins)x6(Units)=18 units
2(wins)x3(units)=6 units
I won 24 units today and only lost 11 units
3(loses)x3(units)=-9 units
2(loses)x1(units)=-2 units

I only picked 5 out 0f 10 bets correct today but i am up $230, if i kept all of my units/per game the same, I would be down on the day due to the juice.

I can honestly tell you guys that I really want to capp for a living down the future, or if not, at least cap for a sizable income.... I research at least 90 minutes a night on weekdays, and ive been researching up to 4 hours on weekends.... That is where I get my picks and how much i want to lay. I use every factor when choosing a bet, trends/stats/conditions/and many more i cant really think of. I cross refrence websites that are giving out public favorites. I have a list of pro cappers that annalize and break down some games. Some cappers will have "free picks" that they have, these tend to be strong bets, because in the long run that capper wants you to be a client. He will probably give you one of his better bets for that day. Something that you want to conentrate on is trying to put yourself in the shoes of Vegas.... Who do they want the public to bet on and you bet against it (contrarian to a degree) If vegas likes the bet, YOU like the bet!

anything else let me know... I am about to post a couple of my picks for today

thanks brahh. one more thing when you post the amount of units your wagering, is that something your making up or a real life bet your putting on some online book? since when you book bets in the thread, 20each would just be 1unit.

[rcooj_7]

thanks brahh. one more thing when you post the amount of units your wagering, is that something your making up or a real life bet your putting on some online book? since when you book bets in the thread, 20each would just be 1unit.

Real man.... I use sportsbook.com and bodog mainly. if i get high enough i will probably switch over to Betus.com

Betting on FCP is kind of differnt. If i started to bet units here people would probably not be cool with it... and these bets are cutting into my poker BR not my betting BR. understand? Of course i dont want to lose bets on FCP but they are also recreational...

Edit: I dont use the unit system on FCP

[psufans2]

Real man.... I use sportsbook.com and bodog mainly. if i get high enough i will probably switch over to Betus.com

Betting on FCP is kind of differnt. If i started to bet units here people would probably not be cool with it... and these bets are cutting into my poker BR not my betting BR. understand? Of course i dont want to lose bets on FCP but they are also recreational...

Edit: I dont use the unit system on FCP

gj brahh keep up the good work

[rcooj_7]

Importan NFL news at OP

[mrpaddyx]

Hey Rcooj do you mind other folk posting betting tips on this thread?

[Canary3]

I don't understand your 6 unit system. I'm guessing that the 6 unit bets have a higher assumed expected value than a 1 unit bet.... am I right?

Then why bother with the low unit bets? It seems like it would make more sense to throw out the 1 and 2 unit bets and bet that money on a game where your assumed EV is higher.

[rcooj_7]

Hey Rcooj do you mind other folk posting betting tips on this thread?

I would love that! we should all help each other!

[rcooj_7]

I don't understand your 6 unit system. I'm guessing that the 6 unit bets have a higher assumed expected value than a 1 unit bet.... am I right?

Then why bother with the low unit bets? It seems like it would make more sense to throw out the 1 and 2 unit bets and bet that money on a game where your assumed EV is higher.

6unit bets do have an expected higher value.... when i decide on coming up with a unit for the bet i will look at how far off i think vgas has the line... if I think the line is off by 5 or more points a higher unit bet is coming.... now lets say that a key player is just listed as questionable, vegas doesnt neccesarily change the line too much on small things like this. you gain smaller value in these games. Basically, you still have an edge on the smaller unit bets, but it isnt as big as your 4, 5, and 6 games. Look at the first two days i have posted. Those days would not be any where close to as nice if i just bet everygame at 6 units

watch today. i am going to have a ton of 2-3 unit bets. sometimes that just happens

[Canary3]

I didn't suggest betting every game at 6 units. If what you define as a 6 unit bet has a higher expected value than any other bet, then it doesn't make a lot of sense wasting your bankroll on marginal/slightly profitable bets.

I doubt Vegas ever releases a line that is off by more than 5 points from the true line. Obviously it depends on what sport you are talking about but 5 points is huge!

[Tactical Bear]

Dear Original Poster (and anyone else who is interested):

Please explain the following about your unit system:

1) What %age of your bankroll does 1 unit represent?
2) Do you up date your unit-size when your bankroll changes as a result of winning and losing? If so, in what manner and how often? If not, why?
3) How did you come up with a 1x-6x system? Why do you believe this is optimal?
4) Does the number of independent wagers you wish to make at a given time effect the size of each wager? (For example, if you had 7 NFL games to put in -- all of which you liked a lot -- would your average risk be different than if you had 2 NFL wagers that you liked equally as much?)

Also:

5) What kind of edge you expect you have for a each wager-size? What do you believe is your edge on a 1x wager? a 4x? a 6x?
6) Why aren't you playing at Matchbook?


Thanks,

Tactical Bear

[rcooj_7]

I didn't suggest betting every game at 6 units. If what you define as a 6 unit bet has a higher expected value than any other bet, then it doesn't make a lot of sense wasting your bankroll on marginal/slightly profitable bets.

I doubt Vegas ever releases a line that is off by more than 5 points from the true line. Obviously it depends on what sport you are talking about but 5 points is huge!

you are right. it doesnt happen a lot compared to the ammount of games that happen on a weekly basis. BUT it does happen, often at that. Vegas has to produce lines for every NBA game, NFL game, NCAAB, NCAAF EVERY DAY... not only are they coming up with the spread, they need to calculate the over/under for all those games as well... it is common to screw up by more then 5 points somewhere. Ill give you an example, The raiders are one of the worst in teh NFL. The public is DUMPING on the raiders not to cover teh spread, well every week there for a while, the raiders were not covering and vegas was getting killed, Vegas basically said **** you when the raiders played the chargers. They told us, you are going to have to take -14 on teh chargers if you want that action.... the raiders took the Chargers to the wire the first meeting and all signs pointeded to a 7 point game here, but vegas doesnt always post predictions, they post what makes them the most money. the public dumped on SD that week and the raiders covered. Vegas cleaned up