Thoughts On How I Played This Hand Options

[Nashtak]

I'm not saying you should always fold AJ to an EP raiser, but most of the time against an unknown you should because of reverse implied odds.

As for the flop, if i lead out, and he raises, than what do i do? His raising range on the flop (especially since im taking the lead away from him) is bigger than his two barreling range. In this spot I gain more information from check calling, than i do from taking the lead. The chances of me getting (semi)bluffed on a flop bet are greater than someone firing another bet on the turn

I don't understand how you can get more info out of check calling than taking the lead here. Wouldn't his betting range be really similar to his raising range + the c-bets?

If you take the lead and he raises you, then you can fold basically knowing you were 2nd best, and actually save some chips (unless you were gonna bet over 7.2k). Hey, you could have taken down the pot right there too. Not like your pricing yourself out, you barely have any outs. An Ace could be a death card(considering you are giving him such a tight image). Just figure out where you stand now and limit your loss IMO. You will probably be called by better hands than yours but you still don't want hands like AQ, AK, 10s, 9s and 8s to probe-bet you out of the hand, no matter how low are the odds that they draw out on you.

If anything, we can agree that if you are gonna play so weak with this flop, then yes you should have a folded preflop. After reading his books, Dan Harrington would probably wack my fingers with a wooden stick for folding there preflop but then again, he seems to advocate betting for information which is apparently a terrible play now.

[rbakken2504]

I don't understand how you can get more info out of check calling than taking the lead here. Wouldn't his betting range be really similar to his raising range + the c-bets?

If you take the lead and he raises you, then you can fold basically knowing you were 2nd best, and actually save some chips (unless you were gonna bet over 7.2k). Hey, you could have taken down the pot right there too. Not like your pricing yourself out, you barely have any outs. An Ace could be a death card(considering you are giving him such a tight image). Just figure out where you stand now and limit your loss IMO. You will probably be called by better hands than yours but you still don't want hands like AQ, AK, 10s, 9s and 8s to probe-bet you out of the hand, no matter how low are the odds that they draw out on you.

If anything, we can agree that if you are gonna play so weak with this flop, then yes you should have a folded preflop. After reading his books, Dan Harrington would probably wack my fingers with a wooden stick for folding there preflop but then again, he seems to advocate betting for information which is apparently a terrible play now.

check calling is a far better play from an EV standpoiint than taking the lead....say you take the lead, not only is this widely known by even the worst of players as an weak bet, but he will likly raise with a hand that doesnt beat us or even worse fold a hand that doesnt beat us. Being that i have such a sticky hand against an unknown im trying to keep the pot small. And how in jesus would an ace be a death card for me???? that would be the perfect card on the turn for me, unless he had a set, which i think is very unlikely seeing he bet the flop on a pretty dry board. and if he has AK, AQ 10s etc and hits on the turn, good for him...im not scared of a small percentage play happening. What I am scared of is an overpair. A random player is gonna raise the flop with a weak hand more often than he is gonna follow up a c-bet with weak holdings in position.

Betting for information i dont think is a bad play, but in this situation it doesnt apply, stealing the lead from somebody is seen by all as weak and gives you no more info than check calling.

[babylondonks]

Nashtak, say we give him some form of tight raising range. I'm bad at MTT's but let's say 77+, AJ+ and KQ, which according to my basic count is 95 combos of hands.

If we donk out say 6k on that flop, he's folding every hand we beat, which I think is about 60 combos. So about 60% of the time we win 9k.
If he raises and we raise/fold, he's raising about 25 combos for value and I'd venture another 10 as bluffs, so 40% of the time we lose 6k. This includes the times he's raising AJ and we choose to donk/fold or he spazz raises worse and we fold.

So that's immediately what, a +3k position?

If we c/c this flop instead, we have to assume that he's cbetting a pretty wide range of hands on such a dry board. I'd say almost his entire range.
So we c/c 6k on that flop and then he checks back most turns and rivers with some showdown value, double barrels with air sometimes (but also runs into the nuts sometimes, so we're just going to assume that cancels out). Assuming he decides to randomly check back a few combos we'll say that 65% of the time we win $15k.

It's obviously not that simple because he can barrel turns and rivers, bet his stack by the river with the nuts, etc. But just this quick calculation shows that we're much better off not to bet this flop basically ever when we flop TPTK. It considerably narrows his range and is loses us a ton of EV. donk/folding this flop is probably the easiest decision to make, because when we're raised we can be pretty sure we're beat, but that doesn't make it the best play.

[Nashtak]

Nashtak, say we give him some form of tight raising range. I'm bad at MTT's but let's say 77+, AJ+ and KQ, which according to my basic count is 95 combos of hands.

If we donk out say 6k on that flop, he's folding every hand we beat, which I think is about 60 combos. So about 60% of the time we win 9k.
If he raises and we raise/fold, he's raising about 25 combos for value and I'd venture another 10 as bluffs, so 40% of the time we lose 6k. This includes the times he's raising AJ and we choose to donk/fold or he spazz raises worse and we fold.

So that's immediately what, a +3k position?

If we c/c this flop instead, we have to assume that he's cbetting a pretty wide range of hands on such a dry board. I'd say almost his entire range.
So we c/c 6k on that flop and then he checks back most turns and rivers with some showdown value, double barrels with air sometimes (but also runs into the nuts sometimes, so we're just going to assume that cancels out). Assuming he decides to randomly check back a few combos we'll say that 65% of the time we win $15k.

It's obviously not that simple because he can barrel turns and rivers, bet his stack by the river with the nuts, etc. But just this quick calculation shows that we're much better off not to bet this flop basically ever when we flop TPTK. It considerably narrows his range and is loses us a ton of EV. donk/folding this flop is probably the easiest decision to make, because when we're raised we can be pretty sure we're beat, but that doesn't make it the best play.

I learned something today