74 replies to this topic

[serge]

Ok so I have been studying trends and lines and public perceptions. I am going to experiment in a theory that i will document here.

Contarian betting has been mentioned and practised by Biatch amongst others.

I am going to take it to another level and just bet perceived bad teams consecutively and bet against perceived good teams consecutively.

Right now in the eyes of the betting public the Leafs are the worst team in the league and most the public thinking its a lock will bet agaisnt them. And a team like Rangers or Colorado are perceived to be good.

For the next 5 games I will bet one unit on the Leafs.
Also for the next 5 games i will bet one unit AGAINST the Rangers

This is all imaginary as I want to try the theory first.

Current Bankroll: $2078

BET 1:
Toronto Maple Leafs +136 vs New York Rangers. LOSS

BET 2

San Jose Sharks +104 at New York Rangers WIN

BET 3

New Jersey Devils +140 at New York Rangers WIN

Bet 4

Toronto Maple Leafs +176 at Vancouver Canucks LOSS

Bet 5

Montreal Canadiens vs New York Rangers +106 WIN

Bet 6

Phoenix Coyotes at New York Rangers +135 LOSS

Bet 7

Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks +157 WIN

[bdc30]

Please can I book ALL these bets?

[BigDMcGee]

translation: a thin excuse to bet on the leafs.


just joking with you serge, but I caution you against using the leafs as your team to bet against because " nobody" believes in them, because no matter how bad they may ( or may not) be this season, they still are a hugely popular team with a massive fan base unlikely to bet against them..

[gruven]

translation: a thin excuse to bet on the leafs.


just joking with you serge, but I caution you against using the leafs as your team to bet against because " nobody" believes in them, because no matter how bad they may ( or may not) be this season, they still are a hugely popular team with a massive fan base unlikely to bet against them..

That's why Colorado was +120 against them the other night. That is just an insane line, and sadly, I'm an idiot and missed it. I would have wagered a large chunk at that price..

[serge]

as i said..its a theory...I am pretty confident it will work, but i am not using real money yet..

Betting against the Leafs wont be profitable in the long run and I like to prove it...

Its not just the Leafs, any team that is on a losing streak or a team on a winning streak is what you need to bet against.

[serge]

That's why Colorado was +120 against them the other night. That is just an insane line, and sadly, I'm an idiot and missed it. I would have wagered a large chunk at that price..

its really easy to say after the fact..

[gruven]

its really easy to say after the fact..

No, it's really easy to say that period. If the Islanders came in at +120, that would be a great line too. At this point in time, the leafs are a dog to the entire NHL. I know that hurts your feelings, but it's true. Someone has to be the worst team, and right now it's toronto.

[BigDMcGee]

I think there may be more value in betting against the panthers.

[serge]

No, it's really easy to say that period. If the Islanders came in at +120, that would be a great line too. At this point in time, the leafs are a dog to the entire NHL. I know that hurts your feelings, but it's true. Someone has to be the worst team, and right now it's toronto.

so do you think the Leafs will lose 80 games, 75 games, 65 games..??

Its all a mathematical game..they are playing really bad, but they arent the worst team in the league.

Its like the stock market, sell high and buy low...

The leafs are low so you buy them..

I wont guarantee they will win Saturday night, but they will win at least 5 of the next 10...when i am getting plus money on them which i will, thats a huge profit.

[digitalmonkey]

The problem I find with betting on the Leafs is that you never get realistic odds. Perhaps the oddsmakers have found that they don't need to give overly favorable odds to encourage betting on Toronto.

[serge]

The problem I find with betting on the Leafs is that you never get realistic odds. Perhaps the oddsmakers have found that they don't need to give overly favorable odds to encourage betting on Toronto.

this is good possibility...The Leafs after their previous 5 games should not have been a favourite in that game...its something i need to study further as , i have to balance the publics perception with the popularity of the team.

[BigDMcGee]

The problem I find with betting on the Leafs is that you never get realistic odds. Perhaps the oddsmakers have found that they don't need to give overly favorable odds to encourage betting on Toronto.

That's my point.. it's like norte dame is never a value bet, no matter what their record is, because there are just to many fans of ND betting on the other side to make it worth it. I don't know ton about hockey, or hockey betting, but I would imagine that the Leafs and the Habs would be terrible value even if they are on deep losing streaks.. If a team like the leafs and a team like the panthers had the same basic team, same record, same goals for/against differential, I guarantee you the lines on the panthers would be better than the lines on the leafs.

[Speed Limit]

Yep, just bet on the Panthers and lose everything.

[troyomac]

It's not about picking certain teams to win and certain teams to lose. You're looking at it all wrong if you're taking Toronto for the next 10 days without seeing the lines. If the Rangers were -180 and the Leafs +160 it could be a close call, if the Rangers were -250 and the Leafs +230 then obv the Leafs look like a better bet, and if the Rangers were -120 and the Leafs +100, the Rangers would be a better bet.

[serge]

It's not about picking certain teams to win and certain teams to lose. You're looking at it all wrong if you're taking Toronto for the next 10 days without seeing the lines. If the Rangers were -180 and the Leafs +160 it could be a close call, if the Rangers were -250 and the Leafs +230 then obv the Leafs look like a better bet, and if the Rangers were -120 and the Leafs +100, the Rangers would be a better bet.

i m going to guess that the line will be around +125 to +140..

[troyomac]

i m going to guess that the line will be around +125 to +140..

Then I'll be betting on the Rangers

[BigDMcGee]

It's not about picking certain teams to win and certain teams to lose. You're looking at it all wrong if you're taking Toronto for the next 10 days without seeing the lines. If the Rangers were -180 and the Leafs +160 it could be a close call, if the Rangers were -250 and the Leafs +230 then obv the Leafs look like a better bet, and if the Rangers were -120 and the Leafs +100, the Rangers would be a better bet.

An excellent point here. Contrarian betting is about value.. it's about betting on teams that are undervalued due to public perception of them. That has to do mainly with their performance over one season, their recent performance, their historic performance and fanbase size, and the gap of these issues between the two teams..


So, small market teams that are good, it make take a long time for the betting public to get on board with them being good ( this happend with Tampa Bay in the 2008 season in baseball, where the betting public undervalued them for months).


So just because the leafs have started poorly, doesn't mean they are a good candidate for contrarian betting. Because if they get a lot of action betting on the leafs, the lines will never be that good . That's why I think a team like the panthers would have a great deal more value, because of both their slow start, the fact they haven't made the playoffs in 10 years, and basically have no fan base at all.. it seems to me that their lines will be highly inflated, and there could be some value there. just my layman's take, however, grain of salt and what not.

[mrdannyg]

While the point about the Leafs being potentially overvalued is fine, I do not believe it applies to the Leafs. The Rays are a better example, and to some point, someone like the Patriots as well. Regardless of who is on the team, the recent success (or lack thereof) will colour public opinion, and affect betting spreads.

If the same was true of the Leafs, than money could be made just betting against the popular teams (since, by assumption, oddsmakers would always undervalue their opponents.) I do not think that applies to popular teams, like the Leafs/Habs, so much as popular teams based on success and public opinion, like the Rays/Pats.

[BigDMcGee]

I guess what I am saying is, that teams with large fan bases, that are popular, will never have as much value as their small market equivalent. There may be indeed value betting on the leafs, while they are perceived to be horrible.. but I think there will be more value betting on teams like the panthers, because they will have less homer sucker fans willing to bet on them +125 verses the rangers ( no offense, serge).

[bdc30]

I would imagine that the Leafs and the Habs would be terrible value even if they are on deep losing streaks..

ding ding ding.

I had my whole pinnacle roll (all $75 of it...sigh) on colorado the other night - and will be betting them again tonight against montreal. I'm at work so can't check the odds, but last night when the lines went up I got Col at +122 for $50. If they're still +anything tonight when I get home I'll probably bet the rest. Montreal is playing terribly....