Marginal Situation Value [11 Nlhu]

[Avii 0]

I'm this close =___= to be officially rolled for the 22s. ah ****, maybe i just jinxed myself.Here is a gem from tonights grind:IIRC, This is the third hand of the match. First hand of the match I raised and cbet in a similar matter, and villain floated oop, but folded to my turn bet. I had total air but the board had AK7Kr iirc. Second hand, villain raised and I folded.Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 11+0.50 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Replayer from Poker Hands ReplayerAvii (Button) (t1515)SB (t1485)Avii's M: 33.67Preflop: Avii is Button with 4 , 10 Avii bets t90, SB calls t60Flop: (t180) 4 , 2 , 5 (2 players)SB checks, Avii bets t90, SB calls t90Turn: (t360) 5 (2 players)SB checks, Avii bets t180, SB calls t180River: (t720) 2 (2 players)SB bets t480, Hero (t675) ?

[rrumsey 0]

hero folds. you beat worst pairs of 4's and that is it. calling and being wrong your pretty much crippled, i know you still have a decent M but you will get bullied so bad from villain then. Fold you still have a stack. Shove would be better than call imo. i hate seeing board pair again there. I mean you beat 4-9 minus and pocket 3's and lose to anything else here unless he could airball you.

[Avii 0]

Thanks for the reply. Here's my train of thought on the hand.pf, I like to raise with crappy hands which are theoretically easy to get away from. T4s may look ugly, but its heads up, so I can't sit and wait for pairs and Ax. I hit the flop, again weakly. 1 purrr is huge pf, and my kicker is good but not great, so i bet to protect. Flop is low, the bet is just half pot, so I can expect villain to call with overpairs and some kind of draws.Turn pairs board, but brings a bd fd and not much else to the game. I'm betting again, again just half the pot. Villain once again shows passivity.River double pairs the card, and does look the ugliest ever. But its a beneficial card for me:1) the bd draw didn't hit2) the flop draw didn't hit3) villain's play is not consistent with an overpair or a flop connection. 4) no overcards connect, so flop best hand is very likely to be river best hand.Its a great card to bluff imo though. Its ugly looking, and not many cards hit with that board. So I check, villain is now acting exactly as I expected him to by betting this river. So I snap.Thoughts?

[delved 0]

I put him on 67o trying to steal the pot. Reasoning is this;He obviously doesn't have a pocket pair. Throw that out the window.I don't think he played a weak A2/K2 because he would've folded postflop and definitely after the turn. Count the 2 out. Had he have the 5 wouldn't you think he'd raise due to the flush/straight draws? Unless he made a full house, which there's just no way he did. 54o could be the only solution there and in this spot he would've raised postflop.He can't have a 4, he'd be scared of that board himself and you've bet down every street.So as I've said, I'm putting him on a steal of this pot unless he had 54o, which is incredibly unlikely. Take the odds here and hope the read is right.

[SwolyswoND 1]

I put him on 67o trying to steal the pot. Reasoning is this;He obviously doesn't have a pocket pair. Throw that out the window.I don't think he played a weak A2/K2 because he would've folded postflop and definitely after the turn. Count the 2 out. Had he have the 5 wouldn't you think he'd raise due to the flush/straight draws? Unless he made a full house, which there's just no way he did. 54o could be the only solution there and in this spot he would've raised postflop.He can't have a 4, he'd be scared of that board himself and you've bet down every street.So as I've said, I'm putting him on a steal of this pot unless he had 54o, which is incredibly unlikely. Take the odds here and hope the read is right.

This is HU, not FR. Villain most certainly can, and does, have 4x and 2x in his range. 67 or 3x are likely bluffs too, and you are right that 5x probably raises somewhere. But I do not throw out 2x like you do, its never folding the flop and if it calls the flop, why would it fold the turn? Nothing had changed. The river bet sizing is very value-betty, and I release here.