12 replies to this topic

[LewFather]

Alright I understand what EV is and everything I just don't know the equation and how to actually apply it..examples and information would be appreciated..thanks..

[LewFather]

... No help..bummmppp

[TheIceman05]

What exactly are you looking for? I'll take a stab, for you. Expected Value (EV) is the return you can expect on some investment over the long run. ASSUMING we know all information usually withheld from us (ie, opponents hole cards, etc), here is an example:You have AcKc on the button. You raised preflop, and got 5 callersThe board reads 2c 6c 9d.The SB bets out. There are 4 calls to you. To evaluate each possible choice of action (fold, call, raise) we use expected value. If our Ace and King outs are no good (one player has K6, and another has A9 or something like that), we have about a 35% chance of winning this hand in most cases. So what should we do? Folding would be silly. Calling would be silly. We raise. Why do we raise? Because it maximizes EV. At this point, our equity (or "share of the pot" or "value of the hand") is .35 of the pot. So for every person that calls our raise, we gain .35 small bets. If we can reasonably expect everyone in the hand to call, by raising we spend one bet to gain .35 (6). Simply, EV = Equity- Investment (In this case, we're evaluating the EV of raising, so it's EquityChange of raising - cost of raising).35 (6) - 1 = +1.1When playing poker, we're trying to maximize EV. This means getting the MOST money in the hand as the BIGGEST favorite. Spend the least to win the most in the long run....Anything else I can do? Ice

[wrto4556]

Here's a fun question.First person to get it right gets no money.4BB pot with 3 other players. You have AK.The board is 278K and someone bets. 2 players call and you raise. How much is out EV?EDIT: There will be no river action.

[MrNiceGuy]

wrto4556 said:

Here's a fun question.First person to get it right gets no money.4BB pot with 3 other players. You have AK.The board is 278K and someone bets. 2 players call and you raise. How much is out EV?

1.4142135 BB.I calculted it by taking the square root of 2.I'm a genius.Seriously, EV is not something you can precisely calculate in practice. There's just too much uncertainty. But the key question is, is raising more +EV than calling or folding? In this case, the answer depends on the tendencies of the players, and on the preflop and postflop action.Do I win?

[wrto4556]

i confused myself with the question.I don't even know the answer, so... I cant say if you win or not. :shock:

[wrto4556]

ahai figured out what I was doing wrong.You're answer is incorrect.It's...5.20BB, i believe.

[BeanGW]

Iceman: Thanks for your post. This is really great stuff! So just to be sure... let's say the SB bets, and you're on the button and it's folded to you. In that case a raise would be -EV cauz (.35)*2 - 1 = -.3 ??So do you just call in that situation? Or is it more complicated than that since now you probably can figure that you have more outs with your AK?

[wrto4556]

Ice,You calculate EV different than I do.for my example I used the equation a(B)-c(d)=EVor .60(10)-.40(2)=5.2That's the EV equation ive seen in every book ive read.

[MrNiceGuy]

I believe what Ice actually calculated in his example was the difference in EV between raising and just calling, assuming:1. everybody will call, and nobody will reraise2. your hand will be good if a club hits3. your hand will lose otherwise4. you raising vs. you calling here will have no effect on future actionSo then a = 0.35, b = 5, c= 0.65, and d=1(here a = chances of winning, b = net gain if you win, c = chances of losing, and d = net gain if you lose)So the EV advantage of raising vs. calling is: 0.35*5-0.65*1 = 1.1(Same answer he got, he just did the math slightly differently)Of course, in a real situation, assumption #2 is probably correct (although it might be possible for an opponent to make a full house, quads, or a straight flush to beat our nut flush), but the other assumptions easily could be far from correct. That's why abilities such as being able to accurately put your opponents on a range of hands and to predict their future betting are such an important part of poker (in addition to being able to estimate the math).

[MrNiceGuy]

BeanGW said:

Iceman: Thanks for your post. This is really great stuff! So just to be sure... let's say the SB bets, and you're on the button and it's folded to you. In that case a raise would be -EV cauz (.35)*2 - 1 = -.3 ??So do you just call in that situation? Or is it more complicated than that since now you probably can figure that you have more outs with your AK?

So Bean,As long as the other assumptions hold true, you're correct (a raise would be -.3 SB of EV compared to a call).But ultimately, it all depends on how accurate your assumptions are.

[DCWildcat]

In math, the expected value of an event is the probability that it occurs times the payoff, minus the probability it doesn't occur times the loss.In other words, if you flip a coin and some idiot makes a wager that he'll pay you $2 every times it's heads while you pay him $1 every time it's tails, the equation would be(.5)(2) - (.5)(-1) = $.50Your expected value is $.50. EV occurs regardless of actual repetitions, which is one of the reasons we use it in poker--you maximize your EV even though you'll still get outdrawn and whatnot. Normatively, we can say that you should always go after situations with +EV ("positive expected value") and stay away from those with -EV.

[TheIceman05]

wrto4556 said:

Ice,You calculate EV different than I do.for my example I used the equation a(B)-c(d)=EVor .60(10)-.40(2)=5.2That's the EV equation ive seen in every book ive read.

WRTO,Yeah, someone said this, but I was calculating the expected value of the raise vs. the call in that situation, while making a few major assumptions, namely that there will be no further action. I was just suggesting the the value of raising can be calculated by multiplying your chance to win by the number of callers, and then subtracting from that (1-chance to win). Or some permutation of this equation. That's the expected value of the raise vs. the call. I'm too lazy to look, but I think you were expressing the EV of your hand, ie, your equity in the pot. Props to Mr. NiceGuy for helping out by explaining my silliness. And to MrBean:As for your example... yeah. You're right on. Of course, our odds would change, but if we assume we are STILL just have a 35% chance of winning, the raise here (if we ignore the free card it could buy us, and other important considerations) is of negative value, because in the long run we're putting in more money by making this raise than we are getting back. Holla,Ice