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Decision At 200nl


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#1 CrookedLink

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 08:11 AM

Posted this on the Challenge thread in Gen. Poker but figured I might get a few more responses here.Live 200NL game last night.Effective stacks:Hero ~$350UTG ~$500MP ~$200UTG and MP limp and it folds to me in the button where I see :ts :club: and limp as well.SB folds and BB checks.The flop comes :3h :5c :D BB and UTG check and MP bets $15.I call, SB folds and UTG calls.Turn is :qh UTG checks, MP bets $15 again and I raise to $45. UTG smooth calls as does MP.River is :4h Now UTG leads for $70. MP tanks for almost 2 minutes before making a crying call. Hero?I've played a fair amount of poker with UTG who's an older (65ish) asian guy that plays a straight forward abc poker, never really getting out of line much.No read on MP as he just sat down a few hands ago.
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#2 MaxStPolish

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 08:41 AM

View PostCrookedLink, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 11:11 AM, said:

Posted this on the Challenge thread in Gen. Poker but figured I might get a few more responses here.I have no idea where to post this hand, so this seems like a good place. Live 200NL game last night.Effective stacks:Hero ~$350UTG ~$500MP ~$200UTG and MP limp and it folds to me in the button where I see :ts :club: and limp as well.SB folds and BB checks.The flop comes :3h :5c :D BB and UTG check and MP bets $15.I call, SB folds and UTG calls.Turn is :qh UTG checks, MP bets $15 again and I raise to $45. UTG smooth calls as does MP.River is :4h Now UTG leads for $70. MP tanks for almost 2 minutes before making a crying call. Hero?I've played a fair amount of poker with UTG who's an older (65ish) asian guy that plays a straight forward abc poker, never really getting out of line much.No read on MP as he just sat down a few hands ago.
Read on MP not necessary, unless you think he'd actually hang around for a raise and crying call x2.Those old asians I tell ya! 9 10 is toally in his range. I don't see what 2 pair shows up here. Maybe a set? But would he really call the bet raise on the turn with 22....no. If he's straight forward, I don't think he'd be slow-playing any other set the way his line shows on this hand. Honestly, if he's a really straight forward player, I don't know what else he could show up with here except the 9 10. Obv call, but I don't think I'd open the flood gates here. I know it takes two specfic cards to beat you (9 T), as he's not showing 95 here, but I think you can effectively eliminate most everything else from his line.....if your read is right, and you can all but eliminate the failed flush draw hands, etc. that would make for this river bluff line.It's a passive line, but I feel best not to get stacked by the wily elder asian when it's really hard to put him on anything BUT 9 10 here.

#3 A_Bullets_A

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 08:55 AM

If he's an old ABC player he doesn't call with 95 preflop so it's just T9 we're concerned about. If he's playing so ABC though, does he really call for a gutshot when someone bets $15 into a $9 pot? Also, should we have even called that $15 on the flop? We have to be pretty sure we're gonna get paid off when we hit, but how can we be sure of that agaist the old ABC guy and a player we don't know?

#4 SwolyswoND

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 09:03 AM

If Asian guy really is playing ABC poker, he wouldn't call the flop with T9. I shove this, and expect to get paid off by a set like 90% of the time here. I can't imagine that we're actually behind.
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#5 gooch

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 09:04 AM

though you said he was abc which would make it a bit weird he called with a gutshot, i don't really see him making a smooth call on the turn with anything but 9T and most likley of clubs
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#6 SwolyswoND

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 09:04 AM

View PostMaxStPolish, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:41 PM, said:

It's a passive line, but I feel best not to get stacked by the wily elder asian when it's really hard to put him on anything BUT 9 10 here.
There are about a million sets and two pairs in his range. T9 is one of the hardest things to put him on actually. It could even just be missed clubs.
QUOTE (Ninja Ace @ Wednesday, March 24th, 2010, 2:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
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#7 potatoman

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 09:06 AM

It's either call or fold on the river.Unless I have some sort of wild and crazy table image, it seems to me that we should be beat here an extremely high percentage of the time.Good reads can save you a lot of money. If the guy's solid, you should probably give this one up. Calling isn't terrible I guess, but I can't see it being profitable in the long run.

#8 gooch

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 09:07 AM

View PostSwolyswoND, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 10:04 AM, said:

There are about a million sets and two pairs in his range. T9 is one of the hardest things to put him on actually. It could even just be missed clubs.
i think mp has two pair, you are right that utg could very well have a set also but i'm pretty sure utg has two pair which makes it less likely
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#9 gooch

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 09:12 AM

View Postpotatoman, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 10:06 AM, said:

It's either call or fold on the river.Unless I have some sort of wild and crazy table image, it seems to me that we should be beat here an extremely high percentage of the time.Good reads can save you a lot of money. If the guy's solid, you should probably give this one up. Calling isn't terrible I guess, but I can't see it being profitable in the long run.
it's $70 to us with about $320 in the pot this is where it gets tough, because mp calls we get to see the cards so we don't need to pay for the informationhe made it $70 into a pot of about $180, tantilizing
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#10 MaxStPolish

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 09:45 AM

View PostSwolyswoND, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:03 PM, said:

If Asian guy really is playing ABC poker, he wouldn't call the flop with T9. I shove this, and expect to get paid off by a set like 90% of the time here. I can't imagine that we're actually behind.
EDIT: I totally thought the flop was checked around. That does change my thought process a bit seeing that he called a 15 buck bet. I think this does highly increase the liklihood that UTG may show up with a set. Even an ABC player though could possibly be seen calling this bet with the implied odds of hitting coupled with if he senses enough weakness from both of you. So i guess this kinda alters my thoughts for all my responses below. I'm really torn between calling/popping now. But my response stays 100% true on the "call/fold" response.

View PostSwolyswoND, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:04 PM, said:

There are about a million sets and two pairs in his range. T9 is one of the hardest things to put him on actually. It could even just be missed clubs.
We are basing our response on the fact that OP notes this guy as a very by the book, no frills player. By the book doesn't bet 70 out into a brick river on a bet/raise turn when he bricks. What two pair hands do you see this player taking this line with, not to mention calling OOP preflop with? I don't see it. At all.

View Postpotatoman, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:06 PM, said:

It's either call or fold on the river.Unless I have some sort of wild and crazy table image, it seems to me that we should be beat here an extremely high percentage of the time.Good reads can save you a lot of money. If the guy's solid, you should probably give this one up. Calling isn't terrible I guess, but I can't see it being profitable in the long run.
Wholly disagree. It's either call or raise on the river. You aren't folding the effective 2nd nuts here getting nearly 5:1, which you are. THAT would be not profitable in the long run.

View Postgooch, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:07 PM, said:

i think mp has two pair, you are right that utg could very well have a set also but i'm pretty sure utg has two pair which makes it less likely
See above about the whole two pair though. It doesn't fit his line and starting hand range whatsoever IMO.

View Postgooch, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:12 PM, said:

it's $70 to us with about $320 in the pot this is where it gets tough, because mp calls we get to see the cards so we don't need to pay for the informationhe made it $70 into a pot of about $180, tantilizing
Yes, making it nearly 5:1 to call, with the second nuts. Even reading this guy as ABC, I feel that at least 1 of 5 times he doesn't show up with 9T, even though I'm nearly certain he has it. I call (as noted above).

#11 gooch

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 09:58 AM

View PostMaxStPolish, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 10:45 AM, said:

See above about the whole two pair though. It doesn't fit his line and starting hand range whatsoever IMO.
i said i think mp has two pair, not utgi play with a guy very simillar to what the op has decribed utg to be and i could see him having both 9T and 77, 66 and even 88 here and lead the pot, because if he has any of those sets he has to believe that the other two players didn't call or bet with the gutshot draw either, i would not rs the river i would make the call here
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#12 A_Bullets_A

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 09:59 AM

The flop wasn't checked around, that's why he probably doesn't have T9. I don't think he's bluffing with any missed draw here either though. Seems like he just took some weird line with a set or two pair. It might be a bit of a blocker bet he's making on the river so he'll just fold if you raise unless he really does have T9 somehow.

#13 AimHigher

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 10:11 AM

How is this not a shove like always?

#14 MaxStPolish

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 10:11 AM

View PostA_Bullets_A, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:59 PM, said:

The flop wasn't checked around, that's why he probably doesn't have T9. I don't think he's bluffing with any missed draw here either though. Seems like he just took some weird line with a set or two pair. It might be a bit of a blocker bet he's making on the river so he'll just fold if you raise unless he really does have T9 somehow.
I edited my response. That does change things a lot. I can see a set showing up a lot more based on that new information for me. i still contend a thinking by the book player can show up with T9 here.....but it's much more reasonable now that he was taking some sort of 'crafty' line with a flopped set.

#15 gooch

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 10:18 AM

would anyone here min rs the river?
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#16 AimHigher

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 10:33 AM

View Postgooch, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 7:18 PM, said:

would anyone here min rs the river?
It doesn't make much difference since we don't have enough behind to raise/fold. The funny thing about this hand is, no matter what he has he played it badly. If he's capable of open limping T9o UTG, then flatting an overbet OOP on the flop with a gutter, then he's definitely capable of taking a retarded line with a set or two pair then stacking off to our shove.

#17 MaxStPolish

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 10:36 AM

View Postgooch, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 1:18 PM, said:

would anyone here min rs the river?
I definitely wouldn't. The only way I could see that being the play is if you thought that UTG may fold to a shove and/or you think MP will also ride along for a 2nd crying call.

#18 gooch

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 10:53 AM

View PostMaxStPolish, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 11:36 AM, said:

I definitely wouldn't. The only way I could see that being the play is if you thought that UTG may fold to a shove and/or you think MP will also ride along for a 2nd crying call.
if everyone thinks we are indeed ahead against a set from utg and 2 pair from mp a min rs is going to seem incredibly strong or incredibly weak and we either get all their money when they rr all in with the set or take down the pot without a showdown which is always preferred imo because they don't get to see your cards, but at the same time you don't get to see theirsi think mp would call a river rs given his stack size and the amount of money in the pot, gross for him but i think 80% he makes it, utg seems to think he has the best hand so i imagine he makes it toothough not really abc, with utg being so deep to start the hand why can't 9Ts lets say of clubs not be possible here? he got to see a cheap flop, and a somewhat cheap turn and is getting paid for hitting his draw
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#19 MaxStPolish

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 11:49 AM

View Postgooch, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 1:53 PM, said:

if everyone thinks we are indeed ahead against a set from utg and 2 pair from mp a min rs is going to seem incredibly strong or incredibly weak and we either get all their money when they rr all in with the set or take down the pot without a showdown which is always preferred imo because they don't get to see your cards, but at the same time you don't get to see theirsi think mp would call a river rs given his stack size and the amount of money in the pot, gross for him but i think 80% he makes it, utg seems to think he has the best hand so i imagine he makes it toothough not really abc, with utg being so deep to start the hand why can't 9Ts lets say of clubs not be possible here? he got to see a cheap flop, and a somewhat cheap turn and is getting paid for hitting his draw
its my contention taht he very well could have any 9T. I still think a thinking player sees crazy implied odds to calling this fishing for the 8, or reevaluating on a 9T.

#20 CrookedLink

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 11:58 AM

What do you guys think about my raise on the turn?
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