SwolyswoND, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:03 PM, said:
If Asian guy really is playing ABC poker, he wouldn't call the flop with T9. I shove this, and expect to get paid off by a set like 90% of the time here. I can't imagine that we're actually behind.
EDIT: I totally thought the flop was checked around. That does change my thought process a bit seeing that he called a 15 buck bet. I think this does highly increase the liklihood that UTG may show up with a set. Even an ABC player though could possibly be seen calling this bet with the implied odds of hitting coupled with if he senses enough weakness from both of you. So i guess this kinda alters my thoughts for all my responses below. I'm really torn between calling/popping now. But my response stays 100% true on the "call/fold" response.
SwolyswoND, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:04 PM, said:
There are about a million sets and two pairs in his range. T9 is one of the hardest things to put him on actually. It could even just be missed clubs.
We are basing our response on the fact that OP notes this guy as a very by the book, no frills player. By the book doesn't bet 70 out into a brick river on a bet/raise turn when he bricks. What two pair hands do you see this player taking this line with, not to mention calling OOP preflop with? I don't see it. At all.
potatoman, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:06 PM, said:
It's either call or fold on the river.Unless I have some sort of wild and crazy table image, it seems to me that we should be beat here an extremely high percentage of the time.Good reads can save you a lot of money. If the guy's solid, you should probably give this one up. Calling isn't terrible I guess, but I can't see it being profitable in the long run.
Wholly disagree. It's either call or raise on the river. You aren't folding the effective 2nd nuts here getting nearly 5:1, which you are. THAT would be not profitable in the long run.
gooch, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:07 PM, said:
i think mp has two pair, you are right that utg could very well have a set also but i'm pretty sure utg has two pair which makes it less likely
See above about the whole two pair though. It doesn't fit his line and starting hand range whatsoever IMO.
gooch, on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 12:12 PM, said:
it's $70 to us with about $320 in the pot this is where it gets tough, because mp calls we get to see the cards so we don't need to pay for the informationhe made it $70 into a pot of about $180, tantilizing
Yes, making it nearly 5:1 to call, with the second nuts. Even reading this guy as ABC, I feel that at least 1 of 5 times he doesn't show up with 9T, even though I'm nearly certain he has it. I call (as noted above).