12 replies to this topic

[mrtruli]

Fellow gamblers,

"A liberally educated person meets new ideas with curiosity and fascination. An illiberally educated person meets new ideas with fear."
-- James B. Stockdale


Please, don't be afraid, let me help you out with some crucial information about what's going on and how you can protect your self. Listen to the people who were predicting this crisis back when they were called crazy because of it. And don't just think they guessed it and dismiss them. Investigate and see their logic and learn how things work and what you can expect in the future so that you can best prepare for it.

I don't know you and you don't know me. I don't sell anything so I couldn't care less if you are going to listen to this guy or not. All I want to do is offer some people (mainly because I'm a fan of Daniel) a good advice and that's it.

From http://www.mises.org/ this is Peter Schiff of the www.europac.net talking about "Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One". (right click -> save as -> play in media player)


And just to show you what he was saying back in 2006 and how absolutely right he was:
2006 Nov Peter Schiff Mortgage Bankers Speech
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[hblask]

I've seen a lot of Schiff and the others who were correct a few years ago. Curiously, they all are believers of Austrian economics. Yet somehow, the statists are spinning this crisis as proof that the Austrians are wrong. I'm not sure why this is working except that reporters tend to not be the sharpest knife in the butcher's block.

[strategy's_touch]

I've seen a lot of Schiff and the others who were correct a few years ago. Curiously, they all are believers of Austrian economics. Yet somehow, the statists are spinning this crisis as proof that the Austrians are wrong. I'm not sure why this is working except that reporters tend to not be the sharpest knife in the butcher's block.

it's because people who followed schiff's advice did worse than the US market. a major piece of his advice was to head to foreign markets, and they've been hammered even more thus far. his stuff seems well-reasoned and I'm sure he'll be vindicated long-term.

[mrtruli]

This is the video version of Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One by Peter Schiff.

Even though I can see Peter is no stranger to people here I highly recommend watching this.

[hblask]

This is the video version of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgMclXX5msc by Peter Schiff.

Even though I can see Peter is no stranger to people here I highly recommend watching this.

I had seen a couple of references to this but figured it was just too long. But after enough recommendations, I finally took the plunge, and it was well worth it. He touches on pretty much every major economic issue and gives common sense explanations of what is going on. I could nitpick a few minor points, but overall, this is a must for a great summary of the big picture.

[El Guapo]

I had seen a couple of references to this but figured it was just too long. But after enough recommendations, I finally took the plunge, and it was well worth it. He touches on pretty much every major economic issue and gives common sense explanations of what is going on. I could nitpick a few minor points, but overall, this is a must for a great summary of the big picture.

He was very correct here, but he has also been really wrong in some other things. The thing is, at the time there was no real reason to think what he was laying out would unfold in this manner. He was predicting worst case scenario stuff. I think he is very intelligent person, a little egotistical for my taste, but it also needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Nobody would have even referenced this had it not been correct.

Bottom line, there is a lot of people who make predictions and assumptions on free market economies, and most are wrong in the short term.

[Sam Donaldson]

Didn't this guy say gold was going to 2k by the end of the year? lol?

[hblask]

He was very correct here, but he has also been really wrong in some other things. The thing is, at the time there was no real reason to think what he was laying out would unfold in this manner. He was predicting worst case scenario stuff. I think he is very intelligent person, a little egotistical for my taste, but it also needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Nobody would have even referenced this had it not been correct.

Bottom line, there is a lot of people who make predictions and assumptions on free market economies, and most are wrong in the short term.

Yeah, I wondered about that. In the era of Youtube, there are probably 10,000 predictions that can be tracked at any given time, so a handful are bound to be right. On the other hand, he seems to have been right for all the right reasons, which isn't always true even among people who have guessed correctly. And he was quite vocal about it in the face of severe criticism -- a tough road to stick to. He is obviously a lot smarter about this stuff than an average politician.

As for SD's post and gold going to 2K this year.... I believe it is possible, although unlikely. It's obvious we are in for inflation, and when inflation strikes many people run to gold. The question is how much future inflation is already priced into gold, and how much more damage to the economy the Obama administration will inflict before then. If Obama and the fed continue at the pace they've set so far, it wouldn't surprise me to see gold well over $2K because the inflation jump will be sharp and dramatic, and fear will rule the gold market. If he's done now, and the economy recovers, we may be near the gold top already. It's a fool's game to make specific predictions of when and how much prices will change. The best anyone can do is say "there's an x% chance of y% movement in the next z months". But people in the public eye can't resist making a specific prediction so they can bring it back out later, so apparently he feels his x, y, and z values are sure enough to do that here.

[Jeepster80125]

Gary Busey sends goldfish crackers to CASH4GOLD.COM.

So there's always that.

[El Guapo]

Yeah, I wondered about that. In the era of Youtube, there are probably 10,000 predictions that can be tracked at any given time, so a handful are bound to be right. On the other hand, he seems to have been right for all the right reasons, which isn't always true even among people who have guessed correctly. And he was quite vocal about it in the face of severe criticism -- a tough road to stick to. He is obviously a lot smarter about this stuff than an average politician.

As for SD's post and gold going to 2K this year.... I believe it is possible, although unlikely. It's obvious we are in for inflation, and when inflation strikes many people run to gold. The question is how much future inflation is already priced into gold, and how much more damage to the economy the Obama administration will inflict before then. If Obama and the fed continue at the pace they've set so far, it wouldn't surprise me to see gold well over $2K because the inflation jump will be sharp and dramatic, and fear will rule the gold market. If he's done now, and the economy recovers, we may be near the gold top already. It's a fool's game to make specific predictions of when and how much prices will change. The best anyone can do is say "there's an x% chance of y% movement in the next z months". But people in the public eye can't resist making a specific prediction so they can bring it back out later, so apparently he feels his x, y, and z values are sure enough to do that here.

If gold hits 2K get out of the way when it comes crashing back down. Because it will be a fast hard fall. Gold as an inflation hedge is no longer relevant, since we are no longer on the gold standard. It is more a theoretical ideal, that holds some water.

The thing with gold is, people forget it is a commodity, which trades much more volatility than most other investments. Short term 20 - 30% swings are not uncommon. This is the reason I laugh when people want to move to the "safety" of gold.

[strategy's_touch]

there was an article about schiff in the wsj not too long ago. bottom line: it's possible to be dead on with a prediction and advise the wrong moves. I still think the entertainment factor is great in the "peter schiff was right" videos on YouTube. he pwned ben stein pretty hard, I gotta say.

I too think the gold loons are pretty absurd. one of my friends was repeatedly posting charts of usd vs. various currencies and comparing to the value of gold over the same period of time. it was his version of "I told you so." unsurprisingly, these posts have stopped.

[hblask]

If gold hits 2K get out of the way when it comes crashing back down. Because it will be a fast hard fall. Gold as an inflation hedge is no longer relevant, since we are no longer on the gold standard. It is more a theoretical ideal, that holds some water.

The thing with gold is, people forget it is a commodity, which trades much more volatility than most other investments. Short term 20 - 30% swings are not uncommon. This is the reason I laugh when people want to move to the "safety" of gold.

Now we have this discussion going in two threads, that always makes things interesting.

Yeah, I guess I hadn't thought about this, that gold is more commodity now than inflation hedge. It obviously always will be for some people, their symbol of safety during the storm. So let me ask if I understand correctly: is the real inflation hedge now international currency markets? I heard that a few years (or decade or whatever) back, but I guess it never sunk in because I don't trade currency and inflation has been a trivial issue since the 80s.

I saw one analyst recommend commodities, I guess this is along the same line. When inflation heats up, people want physical objects in front of them rather than green pieces of paper. This object has traditionally been gold, but in these days of large-scale worldwide e-trading, I guess it could just as easily be anything, so maybe gold isn't the safest bet anymore.

[Nimue1995]

If I want something physical as an inflation hedge, I'll take land. Pretty tough for that to go anywhere far and the prices are right at the moment. Not that I think we'll ever see the housing bubble again but eventually people will always need a place to live so to me it wouldn't be that bad of an inflation hedge.