Mr. Sparco 2 Posted January 27, 2009 Share Posted January 27, 2009 A hand from the 4.40 barrage tonight.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00+$0.40 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comMP2 (t15748)CO (t3500)Button (t6469)Hero (SB) (t10598)BB (t4855)UTG (t4470)UTG+1 (t8138)MP1 (t12237)Hero's M: 18.43Preflop: Hero is SB with K , Q :club:UTG calls t250, UTG+1 raises to t500, MP1 calls t500, MP2 calls t500, 2 folds, Hero calls t375, 1 fold, UTG calls t250Flop: (t2950) 5 , J , 9 (5 players)Hero checks, UTG bets t3750, 3 folds, Hero ?The minraise-with-lots-of-callers pattern has been quite typical at this table. I was playing this barrage in the background while grinding SNGs, so no particular reads on villain other than that he's loose.We can have anywhere between 0 and 17 outs... How many should we count? Enough to cross our fingers, close our eyes and call, or is it an easy fold?(Edit: note that villain is basically all in here. For some reason, perhaps to chat - though he didn't - or to tip the waitress, he has left himself a few chips.) Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted January 27, 2009 Share Posted January 27, 2009 Meh, I'd probably gamble here. Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted January 27, 2009 Share Posted January 27, 2009 So bizarre.How do you interpret his pattern? With so many still to act behind him, pushing into the field like that if he's not holding the As would be highly risky. He's gotta be holding the As. I don't know, I'm at a loss. Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted January 27, 2009 Share Posted January 27, 2009 So bizarre.How do you interpret his pattern? With so many still to act behind him, pushing into the field like that if he's not holding the As would be highly risky. He's gotta be holding the As. I don't know, I'm at a loss.It's very possible he has a J or even 2 pair here. And he doesn't want anyone to draw out, so he shoves his top pair. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 in my experience this big flop overbet tends to be top pair that he's REALLY trying to protect. which, whatever, your hand does ok against a naked J. problem is, there's a good chance his hand counterfeits a bunch of your outs. he's never folding if you shove...has to be a -ev spot. you have plenty of chips to work with...seems a pretty ez fold.oh and calling is unspeakably terribad obv because you have to fold the turn u/i and oops there's 40% of your stack without getting to showdown. Link to post Share on other sites
SGFULTON83 0 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 I misread the hand completely before I thought there was someone left to act. I'd shove but not snappingly. Yeah I said snappingly. Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 It's very possible he has a J or even 2 pair here. And he doesn't want anyone to draw out, so he shoves his top pair.I was wondering about that, but pushing into 4 players on a flushed flop when he doesn't have a spade himself? Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 in my experience this big flop overbet tends to be top pair that he's REALLY trying to protect. which, whatever, your hand does ok against a naked J. problem is, there's a good chance his hand counterfeits a bunch of your outs. he's never folding if you shove...has to be a -ev spot. you have plenty of chips to work with...seems a pretty ez fold.oh and calling is unspeakably terribad obv because you have to fold the turn u/i and oops there's 40% of your stack without getting to showdown.From the bet it looks like Villain is all in. Does that make a difference? That's the reason why I said I would probably call. Everyone else folded as well, I think. If someone else had called and if UTG wasn't all in then I can probably fold, but looking at his stack and his bet it looks like UTG is all in. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 whoops, missed that utg was that short. still don't think it's a +ev call. Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 I'd like to think I'd lay this down, but...As it stands, with the guy betting almost his entire stack, I'm inclined to put him all in and see what happens... Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 I'd like to think I'd lay this down, but...As it stands, with the guy betting almost his entire stack, I'm inclined to put him all in and see what happens... looooooolBest answer so far. hahaha Link to post Share on other sites
TrueAce13 18 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Can someone stove this..I would like to see our equity in the hand and I'm not on my computer which has stove... Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 We can at least narrow down the outs.If he's on a J with no spade, Hero has 15 good outs.If he's on a J with a spade, Hero has 14 good outs.If has the As, Hero's outs drop considerably.That doesn't help a whole lot, does it? Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 looooooolBest answer so far. hahaha I know, I sound kind of retarded there... Link to post Share on other sites
looshle 6 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 I'm all in too bc I just don't think he's got the spades. Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 The problem I have here is that since Hero doesn't have a made hand, he'd be calling off almost 1/2 his stack when the best case scenario is that he's a slight fav with 15 live outs. Bottom line is that he's not going to be well ahead of anything here. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Villain has a hand he really wants to protect, something like AJ, maybe a set. At worst we're against AsJx in which case we be ****ed (25%), however you don't think he'd be too scared with AsJx to bet this much.Against a set we have about 36%, 2 pair, about 46%, against a random QJ we are a 54% fav, against a random KJ we are 52% favourite, against AJ no As (AcJc,AdJd,AhJh,AcJd,AcJh,AdJc,AdJh,AhJc,AhJd) we are 60% favourite.Considering all this and the fact we are closing the action, I call/get it in. Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Villain has a hand he really wants to protect, something like AJ, maybe a set. blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blahblah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah I call/get it in.looooooooolThis is how I read itI'm like the dyslexic of poker math. sigh. Link to post Share on other sites
dizzlerock 0 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 This is probably a leak in my game but i would insta fold. i feel i can find a better spot than this one. My question is if we decide to continue with this hand do we shove. calling got to be the wordt option right? Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 looooooooolThis is how I read itI'm like the dyslexic of poker math. sigh.lol, noob..This is probably a leak in my game but i would insta fold. i feel i can find a better spot than this one. My question is if we decide to continue with this hand do we shove. calling got to be the wordt option right?call is the same as shove, he has about 200 chips left after those which he just bet (I think).If he had us covered this would be a tougher decision, as it is though, I think we have a decent enough edge here to gamble. Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Sparco 2 Posted January 28, 2009 Author Share Posted January 28, 2009 Thanks for the responses so far! I'll wait a little more and then post results for those interested.Yes, villain is basically all in - I should have stated that in the OP since it may not be immediately obvious from the numbers. I'll edit the post. Link to post Share on other sites
donk4life 34 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 I'm all in too bc I just don't think he's got the spades.You're right, he doesn't have spades. Link to post Share on other sites
XXEddie 0 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 You're right, he doesn't have spades.Aces full, Mike.But seriously, I call this for an important reason already stated. I think we should only be worried about a set or a small flush here. If villain had the nut flush or AsJx, why would he bet so much like this? Why wouldnt he check hoping somebody stabs at it. I call expecting/hoping to see KJ/QJ.edit-then we obv have to fold the turn if we dont get there. No way he fires the last 200 without the nuts, imo. Link to post Share on other sites
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