Awkward Bubble Spot

[jmbreslin 0]

Bubble of STT.Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2+0.25 Tournament, 80/160 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comUTG (t4590)Button (t3600)Hero (SB) (t2150)BB (t3160)Hero's M: 8.96Preflop: Hero is SB with K, J2 folds, Hero ??? I always struggle with what to do in this spot, especially since this is bubble time. My stack is in that awkward 10-14 BB range, which makes it a bit too big for pushing but a bit too small for a standard raise if I have to bail on the hand. The BB was not a tight enough player that I would feel confident a steal would be successful.

[litlebullet 0]

ok we'll first start off w/ the hand. (this is my intuition w/out using sng wiz yet) w/ kjo and we think he'll call us w/ any ace and like top half of kings, and any pair, we should just fold. If he's calling less than 10% than it's a shove. (aq, 77+ would be most decent people's ranges, sounds about right for 10%) we should shove.

I always struggle with what to do in this spot, especially since this is bubble time. My stack is in that awkward 10-14 BB range, which makes it a bit too big for pushing but a bit too small for a standard raise if I have to bail on the hand. The BB was not a tight enough player that I would feel confident a steal would be successful.

I used to think this way too, but it is flawed thinking. The worst thing you can do in a sng is raise/ fold. of course there's times when there's an exception to that rule, but this is not one of them. Just figure out and study icm and shove ranges and carry them out until 15 bb's sometimes even 17 I don't normally add raise/ fold in my arsenal until atleast 20 bb's.As for the 10-14 bb range, here's a pretty sweet article on 2+2http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36/stt-s...-profit-139626/

[jmbreslin 0]

I used to think this way too, but it is flawed thinking. The worst thing you can do in a sng is raise/ fold. of course there's times when there's an exception to that rule, but this is not one of them. Just figure out and study icm and shove ranges and carry them out until 15 bb's sometimes even 17 I don't normally add raise/ fold in my arsenal until atleast 20 bb's.

I agree 100%, at least with respect to this stack size, which is why I don't want to make a standard raise. But pushing 13BB on the bubble with a hand that's a bit vulnerable also seems problematic. That said, I can't really fold KJ here, can I?Here's what I'm thinking for options:1) Standard raise and hope to steal but fold to a push2) Standard raise and call a push3) Fold4) Complete and lead any flop5) Complete and push to a raise to represent strength

[jmbreslin 0]

Just read the article in the link, thanks. The point seems to be:Assuming a player in the BB who's restealing range is wider than his push-calling range...1) Open push hands that stack up better against the tighter range (e.g., small PP's, KQs)2) Standard raise and call a resteal push with hands that do better (or equally well) against the wider range (e.g., A9, 99)Which begs the question: how should these hands be played against a BB who doesn't fit the assumed criteria? For example, say you have a player in the BB who has a push-calling range of about 15%, never resteals, but has a much wider flat-calling range for standard raises in this spot?

[SGFULTON83 0]

I agree 100%, at least with respect to this stack size, which is why I don't want to make a standard raise. But pushing 13BB on the bubble with a hand that's a bit vulnerable also seems problematic. That said, I can't really fold KJ here, can I?Here's what I'm thinking for options:1) Standard raise and hope to steal but fold to a push2) Standard raise and call a push3) Fold4) Complete and lead any flop5) Complete and push to a raise to represent strength

I probably go with option 1 because most of the time we take the pot right then with a raise, we would still have enough chips to play with if we are shoved on to be able to fold. What we do if BB just flats our standard raise and we totally wiff the flop is the bigger problem I face in these situations.

[potatoman 0]

My standard play here is somewhere between a min raise or a shove. I don't see me folding this while sitting in fourth place, but some situations I would consider it.The min raise is a bit tricky. I need to know a) That my opponent won't read weakness just because I min raise. I usually min raise a lot with this kind of stack with a variety of hands, most of them high on the food chain. I prefer to min raise when I have position, in case I need to play a flop.b ) That my opponent will fold crap to a min raise and isn't a habitual restealer.With the min raise, even if the villain calls, I can still C-bet a good looking (but totally whiffed) flop and get away from the hand if I need to with a decent stack intact.If my min-raise isn't going to be as successful as I need it to be, I shove or fold, usually the tougher my opponents, the more likely I will shove.If my opponent is a loose caller, I may wait for him to get tangled up with someone else.Limping isn't horrible against some opponents, but I don't do it very often. I don't really like the limp, with the plan to shove a reraise. Hard to imagine our opponent laying down their hand very often or being very far ahead when all the money goes in.

[litlebullet 0]

I agree 100%, at least with respect to this stack size, which is why I don't want to make a standard raise. But pushing 13BB on the bubble with a hand that's a bit vulnerable also seems problematic. That said, I can't really fold KJ here, can I?Here's what I'm thinking for options:1) Standard raise and hope to steal but fold to a push2) Standard raise and call a push3) Fold4) Complete and lead any flop5) Complete and push to a raise to represent strength

That was my whole point really. 10 bb's isn't a magic number that we can't play push/ fold if we're over that. We still shove be push/ folding, and yes, if he calls wide enough, we should fold kj here, and if he's calling tight enough, we can shove on his blinds w/ any 2.As for the options you gave, I like 3, then 4, 1,2, and then 5.

[litlebullet 0]

Which begs the question: how should these hands be played against a BB who doesn't fit the assumed criteria? For example, say you have a player in the BB who has a push-calling range of about 15%, never resteals, but has a much wider flat-calling range for standard raises in this spot?

well, of course stack sizes matter but against a calling range of 15% we can usually push a lot of our range.

[tweakk 0]

I'm not an experienced player, so if I'm totally off base just let me know.Is shoving really that bad?-I'm going to assume you haven't been shoving or playing overly loose, given that you really don't seem to want to shove. So your image is semi-tight at least. Although this isn't exactly conducive to getting him to call you light.-Is he(villain) going to risk being <10bb in a short handed game, and a relatively fast structure(10mins right?) Unless he has a hand that he absolutely knows that is ahead of your range. You're only really crushed with the top 5.5% of hands, and while you certainly are not a huge favorite(If a favorite at all) if hes calling with ~20% of hands, you aren't down and out and still have 5 cards to see, and if he calls really light with k10, k9, k8, QJ, Q10, J10, (which is a possibility although slim) you end up possibly putting yourself in great position for the rest of the match.-The only thing that really gets me is is 160chips really worth shoving for? I don't know probably not. Then again it's another round of blinds you can sit through.After typing this all out, I think I actually lean towards folding, so maybe shoving is bad. But then again how long can you wait for a hand that you are comfortable shoving with or re-stealing with, and expect to get paid off? I actually shove cause I don't spend 10 minute typing out my whole opinion on the matter, and up end being on the fence about it =p I don't like putting money in the pot and then folding, and I definitely don't like calling shove just because it puts the decision on myself, I'd rather have him be thinking about whether hes ahead and wanting to gamble, on the bubble.

[jmbreslin 0]

I probably go with option 1 because most of the time we take the pot right then with a raise, we would still have enough chips to play with if we are shoved on to be able to fold. What we do if BB just flats our standard raise and we totally wiff the flop is the bigger problem I face in these situations.

I do think we have just enough chips to raise-fold to a push, provided BB's restealing range is relatively tight. A raise-fold will leave us with just about 10BB. The downside of the standard raise is exactly the issue of the flat-call. If our raise brings us down to 10BB, we then face a difficult postflop situation if we don't hit.

[jmbreslin 0]

Limping isn't horrible against some opponents, but I don't do it very often. I don't really like the limp, with the plan to shove a reraise. Hard to imagine our opponent laying down their hand very often or being very far ahead when all the money goes in.

Unless BB is a tight-passive player, lots of players in his spot would raise an SB completion there as a steal with a wide range. By limp-pushing I can represent strength and perhaps get him to lay it down after his steal attempt. I still have enough fold equity that he's not committed to the pot with his steal raise.

[MovingIn 0]

Being on the outside looking in with the short stack on the bubble is a crappy spot.If we believe his range is what litlebullet stated... even if I believed I could fold him 80-90% of the time, I'd fold because the most likely win for you, his BB, isn't that significant, and we're beat against much of his possible range in the few cases when we do get called. If we're called lighter, we can beat a few more hands in his range and even crush some, but still, the payoff 60-80% of the time is c160, and that's not too significant at this point.I'd prefer to open shove with a hand like this in position, when we at least can take both blinds when we're not called, which adds EV to our shove.

[jmbreslin 0]

If we're called lighter, we can beat a few more hands in his range and even crush some,

I think the opposite - KJ is one of those hands that stacks up better to a tighter range. Opening up his range means more Aces that beat us and lower pairs we're slight dogs to. The only hands in a wider range we're beating are the few we dominate, like KT, QJ, JT.

[SlackerInc 0]

ok we'll first start off w/ the hand. (this is my intuition w/out using sng wiz yet) w/ kjo and we think he'll call us w/ any ace and like top half of kings, and any pair, we should just fold. If he's calling less than 10% than it's a shove. (aq, 77+ would be most decent people's ranges, sounds about right for 10%) we should shove.

I can't see folding this regardless of villain's range. It's BvB, we have an above average hand and fold equity, we're in fourth place at a table that pays three spots, and villain is currently sitting in third place and is likely to be cautious. I agree with the second part of your analysis and would lean toward shoving; but if you are leery of pulling the trigger with KJo (and I can understand that) just limping would be better than folding, surely.

[jmbreslin 0]

and villain is currently sitting in third place and is likely to be cautious.

I wasn't confident about this part. Villain was on the laggy side preflop and seemed like the type of player that might call wider than I would like if I pushed. Also, remember this is a $2.25 - players tend to call much wider than they should, even at bubble time.

[Gallo 1]

I'd shove in this spot.

[jmbreslin 0]

So here's what I did. I was torn about pushing vs standard raising so I ended up just completing. Villain raised to 400 and I went ahead and pushed, hoping villain would interpret my limp-push as a trappy AA/KK move. Villain called and flipped over 44. Thankfully I flopped a K and doubled-up.I actually don't think it was that bad a move against a laggy player and I think his call was terrible after I pushed. My move should have represented strength to any player in that situation, which means my represented range had her crushed. I was a bit shocked that he called off that much of his stack with 44 there on the bubble, when a loss would have really hurt him.In hindsight I'd probably just open push.

[looshle 6]

Open shoving here is by far the best play.

[Gallo 1]

So here's what I did. I was torn about pushing vs standard raising so I ended up just completing. Villain raised to 400 and I went ahead and pushed, hoping villain would interpret my limp-push as a trappy AA/KK move. Villain called and flipped over 44. Thankfully I flopped a K and doubled-up.I actually don't think it was that bad a move against a laggy player and I think his call was terrible after I pushed. My move should have represented strength to any player in that situation, which means my represented range had her crushed. I was a bit shocked that he called off that much of his stack with 44 there on the bubble, when a loss would have really hurt him.In hindsight I'd probably just open push.

After he raised he was basically committed to call you with ATC, that's why it was better to shove on villain first.

Open shoving here is by far the best play.

Weeeee!!

[Gallo 1]

I do think we have just enough chips to raise-fold to a push, provided BB's restealing range is relatively tight. A raise-fold will leave us with just about 10BB. The downside of the standard raise is exactly the issue of the flat-call. If our raise brings us down to 10BB, we then face a difficult postflop situation if we don't hit.

I don't think we should ever be raise/folding with ONLY 13.5BBs. Bolded part-This is exactly why just raising here is bad.

Unless BB is a tight-passive player, lots of players in his spot would raise an SB completion there as a steal with a wide range. By limp-pushing I can represent strength and perhaps get him to lay it down after his steal attempt. I still have enough fold equity that he's not committed to the pot with his steal raise.

I'm not a math guy, but I don't think you have that much FE.

I wasn't confident about this part. Villain was on the laggy side preflop and seemed like the type of player that might call wider than I would like if I pushed. Also, remember this is a $2.25 - players tend to call much wider than they should, even at bubble time.

This is why a shove is better than a raise or a fold. You want villain to call off with a wide range that you possibly have crushed here or at least ahead of.

[jmbreslin 0]

After he raised he was basically committed to call you with ATC, that's why it was better to shove on villain first.

Not quite. He made a small raise to 400, which after my push resulted in him facing a call of roughly 1700 more into a 2700 pot. A bit more than 1.5:1 but not quite an auto-call. Besides, since this is a $2.25 I don't think most villains have the awareness to look at the odds this closely.

[Gallo 1]

Bubble of STT.Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2+0.25 Tournament, 80/160 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comUTG (t4590)Button (t3600)Hero (SB) (t2150)BB (t3160)Hero's M: 8.96Preflop: Hero is SB with K, J2 folds, Hero ??? I always struggle with what to do in this spot, especially since this is bubble time. My stack is in that awkward 10-14 BB range, which makes it a bit too big for pushing but a bit too small for a standard raise if I have to bail on the hand. The BB was not a tight enough player that I would feel confident a steal would be successful.

Not quite. He made a small raise to 400, which after my push resulted in him facing a call of roughly 1700 more into a 2700 pot. A bit more than 1.5:1 but not quite an auto-call. Besides, since this is a $2.25 I don't think most villains have the awareness to look at the odds this closely.

But after putting in 400 if he folds look at where it puts him now. So I highly doubt anyone would fold at any stakes unless they had a super strong read. I think it was riskier to pull this move than just open shoving.If he shoves do you call?

[looshle 6]

Not quite. He made a small raise to 400, which after my push resulted in him facing a call of roughly 1700 more into a 2700 pot. A bit more than 1.5:1 but not quite an auto-call. Besides, since this is a $2.25 I don't think most villains have the awareness to look at the odds this closely.

I don't think they are like 2.5xing it out of the BB and folding either.

[MovingIn 0]

I think the opposite - KJ is one of those hands that stacks up better to a tighter range.

KJ is crushed by AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AJ, KQ. It's way behind to AQ. It's on the wrong end of a race against any other pair. It's behind to AT. What's left in a tighter range?In a wider range we see more connectors and crappy K9, T8, J9 type hands. And the Ace-rag hands aren't necessarily crushing us, holding more like a 60-40, 65-35 sort of advantage. Small pairs and the remaining broadways make up a small portion of an expanded range, if we're looking at ~25%.

[SlackerInc 0]

KJ is crushed by AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AJ, KQ. It's way behind to AQ. It's on the wrong end of a race against any other pair. It's behind to AT. What's left in a tighter range?In a wider range we see more connectors and crappy K9, T8, J9 type hands. And the Ace-rag hands aren't necessarily crushing us, holding more like a 60-40, 65-35 sort of advantage. Small pairs and the remaining broadways make up a small portion of an expanded range, if we're looking at ~25%.

I don't have the analytical tools like some here to do a computer simulation, but that sure sounds like a winning argument to me.