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#41 BaseJester

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 08:49 PM

View Postbabylondonks, on Monday, December 15th, 2008, 12:40 AM, said:

As much as I enjoy sweeping generalisations. You're probably flipping at best 98% of the time here
I should read this as "You're a favorite probably only 2% of the time." Right?98%: flipping or behind. 2%: ahead.I'm 89% sure that's what you meant.
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#42 jmbreslin

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Posted 17 December 2008 - 07:33 AM

View PostBaseJester, on Tuesday, December 16th, 2008, 10:11 PM, said:

First, see FAQ.Second, what babylondonks said. Although, I'd rather say "the pot is large enough" rather than say "we've invested enough", so as to not falsely make distinction between the money the hero has contributed to the pot and that the villains have contributed.
The idea about not waiting for a better spot makes perfect sense to me in tournament NLHE, where you can actually run out of time and chips waiting for better spots. We all know that tournament NLHE forces you to take flips, and lots of them. But this isn't tournament poker. If I'm confident that I can outplay the competition at this level of play, and I'm not limited by time and I'm properly bankrolled, I can afford to wait for better spots and I know those better spots will come. Why put my stack on the line when I'm likely flipping when I know there will be opportunities to get my stack in when I'm 60/40, 70/30, or better?
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#43 trystero

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Posted 17 December 2008 - 08:50 AM

The argument is that 1) those spots may never come (opponents may leave, game may break, etc) 2) you suffer no external pressures, so you should exploit whatever edges you can 3) the "stack" is a meaningless concept, an artificial construction designed to survive variance. It doesn't matter if you put it at risk so long as it's a small enough portion of your bankroll. You can always reload and continue playing. If you're thinking of "the stack" as something to be protected then you're viewing it as a tournament player does. Typically all of that advice is correct, but you're suggesting a good point often ignored: just because one play is +EV doesn't mean higher EV options don't exist. Now that doesn't apply to this case, because flat calling is clearly terrible, but consider this example; With stacks of 100 BBs, you have AsKs on a Ts6s5c flop and are in position. A terrible player bets half the pot (3 BBs) and you know he has Td9d. He cannot fold top pair as he's been playing HE recreationally for 2 months. Now if we were to shove all-in here, expecting to be called every time, we'd be gambling with an edge. The play would be +EV. But clearly it is preferable to call the 1/2 pot sized bet in position and get him to put his money in when drawing dead. That is, like, way more valuable.

#44 jmbreslin

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Posted 17 December 2008 - 10:10 AM

You're right that the idea of "protecting my stack" is a tournament way of thinking but in cash games I am concerned with protecting my bankroll, and one way to do that is to avoid putting chunks of my bankroll on the line in marginal spots. This hand, preflop, strikes me as being a very marginal spot. Everyone seems to agree that we are flipping at best but yet getting it all in is still the preferred move by almost all the posters in this thread. And the only argument I've seen against folding is that it is too weak. All I'm saying is that there is nothing bad about being "weak" in this spot and folding. There will inevitably be plenty of better ev opportunities against weaker competition.
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#45 trystero

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Posted 17 December 2008 - 10:40 AM

I agree, folding here is fine. I don't think it's "weak" because we have limited information on the player, and a normal 4-bet at $10 NL is usually QQ+/AK. The pot's not large enough for all the times he has KK+ (which is more often than many players seem to assume). Note that some of the posters here agree. What desmoines said is that if he KNEW we were flipping, we should call, and about that he's correct. If villain flipped over JJ we would be making a mistake by folding. We'd surrender more equity than we deserve. The problem is, obviously, that we have no such guarantee.overall, I also agree that interpreting behavior as "weak" doesn't mean anything; the object of poker is to maximize profit, minimize losses. Who really cares if a play is perceived as "weak"? I actually saw this on 2+2 this morning, too, where everyone criticized a line because it was too weak, even though some of them admitted that the aggressive line had a negative expectation. Ego has little place in a game of brute probability (has some relevance, in motivating us to play, to improve, to persevere, etc.).

#46 BaseJester

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Posted 17 December 2008 - 03:19 PM

View Postjmbreslin, on Wednesday, December 17th, 2008, 10:33 AM, said:

The idea about not waiting for a better spot makes perfect sense to me in tournament NLHE, where you can actually run out of time and chips waiting for better spots. We all know that tournament NLHE forces you to take flips, and lots of them. But this isn't tournament poker. If I'm confident that I can outplay the competition at this level of play, and I'm not limited by time and I'm properly bankrolled, I can afford to wait for better spots . . .
You can "afford" things that cost you money.

Quote

and I know those better spots will come. Why put my stack on the line when I'm likely flipping when I know there will be opportunities to get my stack in when I'm 60/40, 70/30, or better?
So you can make money. Make money on the 50/50 when it's +EV. And make money on the 60/40 and the 70/30. You don't throw away the $1 bills in your wallet because you have $20 bills. Same thing.
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#47 NoBBiR

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Posted 17 December 2008 - 04:44 PM

View PostRDog, on Tuesday, December 16th, 2008, 2:01 PM, said:

You say that like being really nitty at the lower levels is a bad thing. Folding AK to a 4 bet is never going to be badddddddddddddddddd. It might not be optimal in some situations but I have seen enough 25 and 50 NL hands to know that at least at those levels, continually getting AK in pre against 100 BB stacks is probably not good. My only assumption is that 10 NL probably plays similar.
It's never going to be goooooooooooooooodddddddddd to fold AK to a 4bet at 10nl either. It's not the end of the world if you fold this hand, but it's certainly -EV, and waiting for better spots makes me want to blow my head off. And 25 and 50nl are irrelevant. This is 10nl. This is the bastion for morons who 4bet AJ because they think its funny. Folding AKs to some guy who you don't have reads on, on his first hand at the table, at 10nl, etc. Like seriously. That is just terrible thinking. This is the definition of nittiness. You're really that afraid to flip for a buy-in? You're really that afraid that the guy has AA or KK? Wtf.

View Postjmbreslin, on Tuesday, December 16th, 2008, 2:44 PM, said:

Finally some rational thinking. If you can dominate micro stakes with solid play, why take these kinds of chances? I'm amazed at how many posts I read in this forum that basically amount to, "You could be behind but villain could be drunk and folding is too weak, so just get it all in." There is absolutely no need to be flipping for stacks against this level of competition, unless you just like to gamble.
(See below about better spots)

View PostRDog, on Tuesday, December 16th, 2008, 3:42 PM, said:

Probably one of the reasons I see soooooo many people moving through the limits with horrible cases of FPS too. It's like being nitty is a 4 letter word. People just start thinking "well, I don't want to be a nit, so I will be........aggressive!!!" which for the most part probably works at lower levels. Then they get to levels where people can actually hand read and just can't figure out why people aren't folding to their blind aggression without any thought as to "what exactly am I repping?". I see it allllllllll the time. It isn't a coincidence that sometimes the hardest players for me to play against are many times those that can't beat that limit and end up moving down. It surely puts you in tough spots and you have to play high variance poker. In the end though..........hard to play against does not always equal winning.In the end, my advice to any of you grinding the lower limits, play solid winning poker and don't try to outplay everyone and win every pot.
What does shoving AKs AIPF have to do with FPS? :icon_eek:We're not trying to outplay everyone, we're trying to put our money in in +EV spots. Who cares about variance of flipping if you're rolled? Are you kidding? :club:

View Postjmbreslin, on Tuesday, December 16th, 2008, 6:27 PM, said:

Please explain why. If I'm playing against competition I can beat, why would I snapcall into a flip for my stack?
ASDJGSADKHFEKLGHSDAKLHJKLFJSDLKGJSADGSDA. This isn't a tournament where you're not as willing to always flip away because it could be your last hand. Reloadddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd.You flip for stacks here because it's +EV. We have fold equity, we have no read that says this guy is only doing this with AA and KK, let alone many worse hands and low pairs (which he almost certainly is given that it is 10nl). You don't fold +EV situations just because there are 'better spots' out there somewhere. That is the stupidest logic a NLHE player can have. Who cares if there are 'better situations out there?' When you get to those situations you'll play them also and profit from both in the long run. Someone needs to write a NLHE bible and put this in it as rule numbero uno.
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#48 RDog

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Posted 17 December 2008 - 08:43 PM

View PostNoBBiR, on Wednesday, December 17th, 2008, 4:44 PM, said:

It's never going to be goooooooooooooooodddddddddd to fold AK to a 4bet at 10nl either. It's not the end of the world if you fold this hand, but it's certainly -EV, and waiting for better spots makes me want to blow my head off. And 25 and 50nl are irrelevant. This is 10nl. This is the bastion for morons who 4bet AJ because they think its funny. Folding AKs to some guy who you don't have reads on, on his first hand at the table, at 10nl, etc. Like seriously. That is just terrible thinking. This is the definition of nittiness. You're really that afraid to flip for a buy-in? You're really that afraid that the guy has AA or KK? Wtf.What does shoving AKs AIPF have to do with FPS? :icon_eek:We're not trying to outplay everyone, we're trying to put our money in in +EV spots. Who cares about variance of flipping if you're rolled? Are you kidding? :club:
LOL @ you. Seriously? I said several times in this very thread that I wasn't sure what the aggression levels pre are at 10 NL. My FPS post was dealing with several references that were made to being nitty and putting a negative connotation on it. LOL @ saying I think terribly. Only things I have said in this thread was that I wasn't sure of the aggression levels pre at 10 NL, that calling is by far the worst option and that being nitty at the lower levels is a good thing. Tell me which of those is terrible thinking. Sounds like you have it all figured out though. Good luck with that.I guess the fact that you are quoting Base Jester in your sig should have been the first tell.

#49 trystero

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Posted 17 December 2008 - 08:55 PM

Allen Cunningham on PaD: "What is a nit, anyway? I think it means 'good player' now."(paraphrased)

#50 NoBBiR

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 02:56 AM

View PostRDog, on Wednesday, December 17th, 2008, 8:43 PM, said:

LOL @ you. Seriously? I said several times in this very thread that I wasn't sure what the aggression levels pre are at 10 NL.
Yes, but at the same time you're talking about 25 and 50nl and your experiences there. As I said, those have nothing to do with this. They're nothing alike. The skill level jump from one to another imo is pretty high. You go from playing brain-dead morons to playing reasonably non-retarded players from 10nl-25nl and then that to aware players at 50nl.

View PostRDog, on Wednesday, December 17th, 2008, 8:43 PM, said:

My FPS post was dealing with several references that were made to being nitty and putting a negative connotation on it.
I'm not insulting you. I get called a nit fairly often. Do you really feel like 4-bet shoving AKs vs. folding AKs is a FP? If not, then I don't get what you're saying. That's the reason for the nit remark. I think it is very scared money who folds AKs here for 100bbs, especially if you're advocating the 'better spots' argument.

View PostRDog, on Wednesday, December 17th, 2008, 8:43 PM, said:

LOL @ saying I think terribly. Only things I have said in this thread was that I wasn't sure of the aggression levels pre at 10 NL, that calling is by far the worst option and that being nitty at the lower levels is a good thing. Tell me which of those is terrible thinking.
But you're going on the assumption that they're the same as 25 and 50 and they aren't.And being nitty at the lower levels isn't necessarily a good thing. I'm not talking about playing 50/40, but I'm not a fan of going out and playing 9/8 either. And again, the remark about being a nit is based on wanting to fold in this spot just to be conservative. If you never flip, or never put in your money with AK preflop, then you're exploitable. What's the point of raising with it at all if you're never willing to put it in?

View PostRDog, on Wednesday, December 17th, 2008, 8:43 PM, said:

Sounds like you have it all figured out though. Good luck with that.
Lol @ condescending remarks because we're disagreeing. Christ, you're acting like I personally attacked you. Did I burn a cross in your yard?

View PostRDog, on Wednesday, December 17th, 2008, 8:43 PM, said:

I guess the fact that you are quoting Base Jester in your sig should have been the first tell.
Yeah, because putting something truthfully funny in my quote box is the end of the world. Sorry I disagreed with you buddy. Next time I won't, for fear of your poker forum wrath! :club:
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#51 jmbreslin

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 07:58 AM

View PostNoBBiR, on Wednesday, December 17th, 2008, 7:44 PM, said:

You flip for stacks here because it's +EV.
Show me the calculation, I haven't seen it yet in this thread.

Quote

We have fold equity
There isn't a chance in hell this guy is 4-betting and then folding to a push here.

Quote

we have no read that says this guy is only doing this with AA and KK, let alone many worse hands and low pairs (which he almost certainly is given that it is 10nl)
You also don't have a read that he isn't only doing it with AA/KK. Granted I don't have a huge number of hands at this level under my belt, but the only time I've ever seen players play this aggressively preflop with lower pairs or hands like AQ/AJ is when they're playing a shortstack double-or-done strategy. These are the guys who usually buy in for $3 at 10NL and start pushing like crazy. This guy bought in for the max.

Quote

You don't fold +EV situations just because there are 'better spots' out there somewhere. That is the stupidest logic a NLHE player can have. Who cares if there are 'better situations out there?' When you get to those situations you'll play them also and profit from both in the long run.
Why is it such stupid logic? Half the time you flip for your buyin you lose your buyin. Then you have to make that money back. If I pass up on marginal spots and focus on getting my money in when I'm a bigger favorite, I increase the odds of doubling my buyin when I get my money in. Obviously it will mean I don't double up as often as you do, but I also won't lose my buyin as often as you do. Why is my approach stupid while yours deserves to be in the NLHE bible?
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#52 RDog

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 08:01 AM

View PostNoBBiR, on Thursday, December 18th, 2008, 2:56 AM, said:

Yes, but at the same time you're talking about 25 and 50nl and your experiences there. As I said, those have nothing to do with this. They're nothing alike. The skill level jump from one to another imo is pretty high. You go from playing brain-dead morons to playing reasonably non-retarded players from 10nl-25nl and then that to aware players at 50nl.I'm not insulting you. I get called a nit fairly often. Do you really feel like 4-bet shoving AKs vs. folding AKs is a FP? If not, then I don't get what you're saying. That's the reason for the nit remark. I think it is very scared money who folds AKs here for 100bbs, especially if you're advocating the 'better spots' argument.But you're going on the assumption that they're the same as 25 and 50 and they aren't.And being nitty at the lower levels isn't necessarily a good thing. I'm not talking about playing 50/40, but I'm not a fan of going out and playing 9/8 either. And again, the remark about being a nit is based on wanting to fold in this spot just to be conservative. If you never flip, or never put in your money with AK preflop, then you're exploitable. What's the point of raising with it at all if you're never willing to put it in?Lol @ condesending remarks because we're disagreeing. Christ, you're acting like I personally attacked you. Did I burn a cross in your yard?Yeah, because putting something truthfully funny in my quote box is the end of the world. Sorry I disagreed with you buddy. Next time I won't, for fear of your poker forum wrath! :club:
LOL, where do I possibly begin? My only experience at 25 and 50 NL is coaching those limits which is why from the very beginning I said I wasn't sure about the aggression levels here.Where exactly did I advocate waiting for a better spot?Haha @ me advocating 9/8. There is a difference between being a nit and being bad.Go back and look at the post I quoted when I made my comments. It was a post referring to solid play.LOL @ me being scared money and exploitable at these limits.

#53 TrueAce13

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 12:06 PM

Alright, so I'm horrible with pokerstove, but here is my first attempt to try to post with it. Please correct or say something if people disagree, I gave villain the top 3.2% of his range (I think?)Preflop: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 41.349% 36.33% 05.02% 16797519 2319003.00 { AcKc }Hand 1: 58.651% 53.64% 05.02% 24796683 2319003.00 { TT+, AKs }Flop: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 79.026% 75.93% 03.10% 15786 643.50 { AcKc }Hand 1: 20.974% 17.88% 03.10% 3717 643.50 { TT+, AKs }
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#54 BaseJester

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 03:42 PM

Some other ranges for consideration.
  10,273,824  games	 0.005 secs	 2,054,764,800  games/secBoard: Dead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	23.123%	  22.60% 	00.52% 		   2322225 		53437.50   { AcKc }Hand 1: 	76.877%	  76.36% 	00.52% 		   7844724 		53437.50   { KK+ }---Board: Dead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	40.246%	  13.34% 	26.91% 		   3425229 	  6911839.50   { AcKc }Hand 1: 	59.754%	  32.84% 	26.91% 		   8435652 	  6911839.50   { KK+, AKs, AKo }---  35,958,384  games	 0.031 secs	 1,159,947,870  games/secBoard: Dead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	41.904%	  22.62% 	19.28% 		   8133909 	  6934104.00   { AcKc }Hand 1: 	58.096%	  38.81% 	19.28% 		  13956267 	  6934104.00   { QQ+, AKs, AKo }---

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#55 BaseJester

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 03:55 PM

The rake nearly eliminates the benefit of the dead money in this pot.
8.9	To Call		20	Pot total			  45%	Break-even19	Pot -Stars Rake		  47%	Break-even18	Pot - FTP rake			49%  Break-even
Edit: I was thinking of FTP for some reason. Added Stars row.
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#56 tskillz187

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 05:48 PM

FWIW, when you disagree with someone that's better than you at poker, ask why. Why do they think a different play is better? They're probably right, they are in fact the better player. If everyone spent less time defending their actions and more time listening and trying to understand they'd be so much better. If you don't care and don't want to get better don't post in a strat forum!In this case, Rdog is staking at least two people that are playing or played $10NL. He's watched them play, he's staking at least another 10 or so that are playing $25nl and $50nl and watches them each probably once a week. And looks at their stats and actually sits and plays in those games for his stakees to watch and learn from. He knows how to play $10nl, and $25nl, and $50nl. But moreover, he's just good at poker and has a good poker mind, so even if all that wasn't true, he'd still be right a much higher percentage of the time than the $10nl and $25nl grinders arguing with him.Think about you as a poker player and why you are at where you are at. Take responsuibility for the level you play at, and give respect to those thatbeat higher levels. They aren't luckier, they are better. And if they are better than you and are posting in the same thread as you, that is an opportunity for you to get better. Use it.
Naismith (2:56:11 PM): fuckerflakeoutonmystakingnowmakingmillions

#57 Snamuh

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 05:48 PM

View Postjmbreslin, on Thursday, December 18th, 2008, 10:58 AM, said:

Why is it such stupid logic? Half the time you flip for your buyin you lose your buyin. Then you have to make that money back. If I pass up on marginal spots and focus on getting my money in when I'm a bigger favorite, I increase the odds of doubling my buyin when I get my money in. Obviously it will mean I don't double up as often as you do, but I also won't lose my buyin as often as you do. Why is my approach stupid while yours deserves to be in the NLHE bible?
This is really poor advice/logic. While it is a good idea to not lose money in marginal situations, this isn't the right outlook at all. You are flipping for dead money as well as to set up a more aggressive image to help get favorable situations in the future. If you sit around and only wait for situations where you are a big favorite, you won't get much action when you do have a big hand.
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#58 David_Nicoson

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 06:40 PM

View Posttskillz187, on Thursday, December 18th, 2008, 8:48 PM, said:

FWIW, when you disagree with someone that's better than you at poker, ask why. Why do they think a different play is better? They're probably right, they are in fact the better player. If everyone spent less time defending their actions and more time listening and trying to understand they'd be so much better. If you don't care and don't want to get better don't post in a strat forum!In this case, Rdog is staking at least two people that are playing or played $10NL. He's watched them play, he's staking at least another 10 or so that are playing $25nl and $50nl and watches them each probably once a week. And looks at their stats and actually sits and plays in those games for his stakees to watch and learn from. He knows how to play $10nl, and $25nl, and $50nl. But moreover, he's just good at poker and has a good poker mind, so even if all that wasn't true, he'd still be right a much higher percentage of the time than the $10nl and $25nl grinders arguing with him.Think about you as a poker player and why you are at where you are at. Take responsuibility for the level you play at, and give respect to those that beat higher levels. They aren't luckier, they are better. And if they are better than you and are posting in the same thread as you, that is an opportunity for you to get better. Use it.
I hope everybody reads every post with the intention of learning something, thinks about it critically, and makes his own assessment.I think it's a mistake to avoid challenging successful players' thinking or discourage others from doing it. Each idea has to stand on its own logical defense. Nobody's always right and we can certainly learn from the process of arguing through a concept. This isn't a blog; it's a discussion forum.Thanks folks.
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#59 chgocubs99

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 07:02 PM

View Posttskillz187, on Thursday, December 18th, 2008, 7:48 PM, said:

FWIW, when you disagree with someone that's better than you at poker, ask why. Why do they think a different play is better? They're probably right, they are in fact the better player. If everyone spent less time defending their actions and more time listening and trying to understand they'd be so much better. If you don't care and don't want to get better don't post in a strat forum!In this case, Rdog is staking at least two people that are playing or played $10NL. He's watched them play, he's staking at least another 10 or so that are playing $25nl and $50nl and watches them each probably once a week. And looks at their stats and actually sits and plays in those games for his stakees to watch and learn from. He knows how to play $10nl, and $25nl, and $50nl. But moreover, he's just good at poker and has a good poker mind, so even if all that wasn't true, he'd still be right a much higher percentage of the time than the $10nl and $25nl grinders arguing with him.Think about you as a poker player and why you are at where you are at. Take responsuibility for the level you play at, and give respect to those thatbeat higher levels. They aren't luckier, they are better. And if they are better than you and are posting in the same thread as you, that is an opportunity for you to get better. Use it.
Biggest QFT I've ever seen in my entire life
QUOTE (dscoot @ Friday, April 10th, 2009, 3:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
im still not sold that many of these people that get these big online scores are winners when it comes to the live game, which, by the way, is real poker.


#60 tskillz187

tskillz187

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 07:40 PM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Thursday, December 18th, 2008, 9:40 PM, said:

I hope everybody reads every post with the intention of learning something, thinks about it critically, and makes his own assessment.
This is hopeful.

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Thursday, December 18th, 2008, 9:40 PM, said:

I think it's a mistake to avoid challenging successful players' thinking or discourage others from doing it. Each idea has to stand on its own logical defense. Nobody's always right and we can certainly learn from the process of arguing through a concept.
Of course you shouldn't blindly follow someone's suggestions. But when someone is better at something than you, it's usually a better idea to listen more than talk. That goes for all professions/hobbies. Listen and take it in. It's not about validating your thoughts, or trying to prove something, just be open to learning.

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Thursday, December 18th, 2008, 9:40 PM, said:

This isn't a blog; it's a discussion forum.Thanks folks.
I don't understand what this means. Of course it's two way communication, the point is some people give better advice than others. The whole point is to try to improve, people should voice their opinin on how to play a hand (the quicker the better, it's a good habit to try and be the first one so that you are thinking on all of your own thoughts) but when someone better comes across with a different approach, instead of defending "your" play, think about their play and ask questions. Too much random defensiveness, not enough thoughtful questioning.
Naismith (2:56:11 PM): fuckerflakeoutonmystakingnowmakingmillions




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