12 replies to this topic

[the_stein]

that does suck, but it made me laugh

[copernicus]

how many "race situations" in those 25000 hands? How many of them were you a 56-44 favorite and how many a 56-44 dog? Are your heads up odds for these calculations correct...eg are you taking into account your and the opponents straight and flush possibilities?how many opponents dealt in in the 99 AAs? How many get to the flop turn and river? "statistics" arent meaningful without knowing all of the variables that affect the outcome.

[jayistheman]

im not sure how it works, but consider the following...you have AK... raise 4xhe has 55... flat call on the buttonflop is j 2 7you checkhe firesyou foldnow... a race is for all 5 cards... i dunno if poker tracker considers that a "race"... the concept doesnt really apply unless it is all in pre flop. so this is technically a race, but if it works out that way then you will lose quite a few of them

[copernicus]

jayistheman said:

im not sure how it works, but consider the following...you have AK... raise 4xhe has 55... flat call on the buttonflop is j 2 7you checkhe firesyou foldnow... a race is for all 5 cards... i dunno if poker tracker considers that a "race"... the concept doesnt really apply unless it is all in pre flop. so this is technically a race, but if it works out that way then you will lose quite a few of them

You contradict yourself..this is not "Technically a race" because it isnt all in preflop.

[jayistheman]

i meant that the odds preflop are about 50/50... which is what alotta people mean when they say "race"

[rog]

How many races are you counting? Odds dont mean a thing on small samples. If that's over 1000 races, I'd be checking your math. If it's 15 or so, it's not enough to draw any conclusions. It should even out over time.

[jogsxyz]

WyT said:

Using poker tracker, over my last 25000 hands I checked my won/loss percentage in "race" situations (I have it defined as anything 56-44 or in between/heads up all in preflop) and it seems I have lost 86.7777% of all race situations I have been in. (and lost $300 in the past 2 weeks, after slowly building up to that from my initial buy in) These are mostly in SnG's as most of the time in ring games I cant/dont go all in pre-flop... Another scary statistic from poker tracker on my play out of those same ~25k hands I have lost my AA 64.33333% of the time (99 times dealt AA)Im beginning to lose faith in odds :cry:

25K hands sounds like a lot of hands. It's about 1000 hours of play for a B&M player. But maybe it's really a small sample. How many true races are there in 25K hands? Use 57/43 or closer. Also must be two handed with one player all-in. Meaning no possible action after the preflop betting. This game may be 75% luck even after 1000 hours of play.

[Smasharoo]

Using poker tracker, over my last 25000 hands I checked my won/loss percentage in "race" situations (I have it defined as anything 56-44 or in between/heads up all in preflop) and it seems I have lost 86.7777% of all race situations I have been in. (and lost $300 in the past 2 weeks, after slowly building up to that from my initial buy in) These are mostly in SnG's as most of the time in ring games I cant/dont go all in pre-flop...Another scary statistic from poker tracker on my play out of those same ~25k hands I have lost my AA 64.33333% of the time (99 times dealt AA)Let me get my violin out.I think the funny part is that you don't post the stats from when you were doiong well where you're probably winning 86% of the coinflips.

[JFarrell20]

WyT said:

Using poker tracker, over my last 25000 hands I checked my won/loss percentage in "race" situations (I have it defined as anything 56-44 or in between/heads up all in preflop) and it seems I have lost 86.7777% of all race situations I have been in. (and lost $300 in the past 2 weeks, after slowly building up to that from my initial buy in) These are mostly in SnG's as most of the time in ring games I cant/dont go all in pre-flop...  Another scary statistic from poker tracker on my play out of those same ~25k hands I have lost my AA 64.33333% of the time (99 times dealt AA)Im beginning to lose faith in odds  :cry:

56-44 is not a 'coin flip'. A race is typically defined as a pair vs. two over cards. It is usually 50.5-49.5 to 52-48. The pairs usually have the slight advantage. If I'm not mistaken I think 78 suited is actually a slight favorite over AA. I may be wrong. This is due to the fact that 78 suited has the flush and straight possibilities.

[pkarcher]

AA beats 87s 77 percent of the time. I checked it with an online odds calculator from cardplayer.com. 87s becomes a slight favorite (56%) if you flop an outside straight and flush draw.

[JFarrell20]

pkarcher said:

AA beats 87s 77 percent of the time.  I checked it with an online odds calculator from cardplayer.com.  87s becomes a slight favorite (56%) if you flop an outside straight and flush draw.

OK so i was way off. lol. I do believe that 87 suited is the best hand to have when faced with AA though.