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Average win rate for 1-2 NL at the casino


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#21 shynepo3

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 11:23 PM

View PostMerby, on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010, 7:35 PM, said:

I don't think I stressed my main point enough in the previous post, so here it is: .....(ii) Are you planning on supplementing your income as a part-time poker player (a serious amateur, but who obtains their primary income elsewhere)?.
this is my goal...thanks merby for all that advice..it sucks that i wont be able to assess my skill level until a LONG time from now..i only play about 10-12 hrs a week.

#22 Merby

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Posted 03 March 2010 - 12:55 AM

View Postshynepo3, on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010, 11:23 PM, said:

this is my goal...thanks merby for all that advice..it sucks that i wont be able to assess my skill level until a LONG time from now..i only play about 10-12 hrs a week.
Well, you won't be able to get an accurate idea of your win rate, but you can actually assess your skill in a relatively reasonable amount of time. That involves posting hands for discussion, responding to other people's posted strat hands and then comparing your response and gut against the other players. Read up on the game from a variety of sources etc. Eventually, you will start to get a good feel for how to correctly think through situations and you will slowly gain confidence that you are making the correct decisions. If you put in more effort to improve on your game than your average 1/2 opponent (who puts in no effort, or occasionally puts in negligible effort) then in reasonably short order, you will have the knowledge base to be a winning player.That doesn't mean that you are guaranteed to be a winning player: emotion and mindset can get in the way. I don't only mean tilt (although that is a big impediment), but also arrogance that you feel you deserve to win because you are better than your opponents. For me, it took a good year between knowing how I should be playing to actually having the discipline to play that way and (for the most part) keep my emotions in check.That being said, I still keep tabs on my win rate as a "rough estimate". I am just well aware that the win rate is not an accurate prediction for future sessions and that it will be impossible to put an actual number to some sort of hypothetical "true" win rate.
QUOTE (Fluffdog87 @ Tuesday, January 27th, 2009, 11:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Dramatic hand gestures on all-ins ftw!


A day in the life of Checkymcfold:
QUOTE (checkymcfold @ Friday, January 9th, 2009, 12:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My cats are freaked out, I have a headache, and I'm probably going to put on pants for the first time in three days and find somewhere to go that's not here.


QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Tuesday, July 22nd, 2008, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
[x] Signature-worthy.

#23 shynepo3

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Posted 03 March 2010 - 10:16 AM

View PostMerby, on Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010, 3:55 AM, said:

Well, you won't be able to get an accurate idea of your win rate, but you can actually assess your skill in a relatively reasonable amount of time. That involves posting hands for discussion, responding to other people's posted strat hands and then comparing your response and gut against the other players. Read up on the game from a variety of sources etc. Eventually, you will start to get a good feel for how to correctly think through situations and you will slowly gain confidence that you are making the correct decisions. If you put in more effort to improve on your game than your average 1/2 opponent (who puts in no effort, or occasionally puts in negligible effort) then in reasonably short order, you will have the knowledge base to be a winning player.That doesn't mean that you are guaranteed to be a winning player: emotion and mindset can get in the way. I don't only mean tilt (although that is a big impediment), but also arrogance that you feel you deserve to win because you are better than your opponents. For me, it took a good year between knowing how I should be playing to actually having the discipline to play that way and (for the most part) keep my emotions in check.That being said, I still keep tabs on my win rate as a "rough estimate". I am just well aware that the win rate is not an accurate prediction for future sessions and that it will be impossible to put an actual number to some sort of hypothetical "true" win rate.
what city do you live in merby?

#24 Merby

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Posted 03 March 2010 - 11:49 AM

View Postshynepo3, on Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010, 10:16 AM, said:

what city do you live in merby?
Vancouver
QUOTE (Fluffdog87 @ Tuesday, January 27th, 2009, 11:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Dramatic hand gestures on all-ins ftw!


A day in the life of Checkymcfold:
QUOTE (checkymcfold @ Friday, January 9th, 2009, 12:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My cats are freaked out, I have a headache, and I'm probably going to put on pants for the first time in three days and find somewhere to go that's not here.


QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Tuesday, July 22nd, 2008, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
[x] Signature-worthy.

#25 Provotrout

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Posted 03 March 2010 - 02:25 PM

View PostMerby, on Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010, 3:55 AM, said:

For me, it took a good year between knowing how I should be playing to actually having the discipline to play that way and (for the most part) keep my emotions in check.
I went through a similar cycle that lasted for several years. Right around 2000-2001 I started reading Steve Badger's poker strategy articles (playwinningpoker). They helped a lot in terms of understanding the math that underlies the game, setting realistic expectations for earnings potential and time/financial investments required to become a winning player, in-play decision making, etc. Despite this knowledge base, I continued to pursue poker recreationally, occasionally loosening up into 'gambling mode' and frequently drinking while playing. Recent play in casinos-specifically seeing the earnings potential that is available to good, disciplined players-has helped to reinforce this knowledge base and provide enough incentive to approach the game as an amatuer aiming to earn $$.

#26 Provotrout

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 05:25 AM

View Postshynepo3, on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010, 5:54 PM, said:

Congrats on your stats...very good. I recently started playing live this year, mostly $2-5. Here are my stats (i really wish i could calculate per hand like online players do...i guess i have to sit there one day and mark it down for 1 hr to get an average..)Total hours played: 85.25Total net profit: 5225Total hourly rate: 61.29Games$1/2 - 20 hours played - (-605) - (-30.25/hr)$2/5 - 58.25 hours played - (+5870) - (+100.77/hr)$5/5 - 7 hours played - (-40) - (-5.71/hr)I think I've been running really good...and I know for sure these stats will eventually bottom out. I don't plan on playing higher than $2/5, until I've been winning for a LONG time...over a year at least. $5/5 I'll play occasionally, but the next big step up would be $5/10, and that's insane to me. Do you play online? I'm wondering how your stats are online, and what limits do you play on there...Please let us know how you continue to do...
Just left the tables in AC and am getting couple hours of rest before heading home. Here are the updated figures:Total hours played: 81Total net profit: $1,690Total hourly rate: $20Cashed: 10/15Games$.50-1.00 home game NLHE 4h / +$47 / $11/h$1-2 live NLHE 55h / +$1,265 / $23/h$1-3 live NLHE 22h / +$378 / $17/hHad a Saturday early morning - Sunday trip this weekend and logged 13h on the 1-2 and 1-3NLHE tables (lost ~$144 overall). It was kind of a weird weekend. Had a few games with vulnerable players but wasn't able to face off with them for big showdown wins. There were a couple of times I folded wtih acceptable calling odds, only to make the hand after folding, as well as a lot of second-best scenarios and a couple suckouts. I did a good job of bluffing a few nice pots (8 for so of 10 attempts) that added over $100 to the bottom line. Made a couple errors in judgement (not calling raises with favorable pot odds, etc). So parts of the game improved this trip (high bluff success ratio & net bluffing gains), while some fundamental errors cost a coulple good sized pots. Definitely learned a few things this weekend and am reading "No Limit Hold'em: Theory and Practice." Working on the game one day at a time and still excited about the live results so far.

#27 Pot Odds RAC

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 05:38 AM

View PostProvotrout, on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010, 8:29 PM, said:

...Poker is one of those niches that offers a good upside for those capable, disciplined enough, and willing to put risk capital to work in a sound manner...
No.Poker is NOT an Investment Strategy.

#28 Pot Odds RAC

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 05:47 AM

I was reminded of this thread (a modern classic):http://www.fullconta...u...=139528&hl=

#29 Provotrout

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 09:16 AM

Pot Odds RAC, on Sunday, March 7th, 2010, 8:38 AM, said:

No.Poker is NOT an Investment Strategy.
Probably not the best way to describe it, but it can act like a bond in terms of requiring a block of money and providing cash flow over a period of time + principal upon finishing. Similar risks apply with bonds in terms of default risk interrupting both the cash flow and return of principal.

#30 Ninja Ace

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 02:04 PM

View PostPot Odds RAC, on Sunday, March 7th, 2010, 5:38 AM, said:

No.Poker is NOT an Investment Strategy.
It is and it isn't...It certainly is not an investment strategy on the macro level. You can't just create a system, put your capitol behind it, and expect it to work automagically.However, on the micromanagement level... it certainly is investment. Each pot you play you're investing that your skill (not your cards) will allow you to profit long term. I mean... in a game where you push edges and are rewarded monetarily... how can it not be investment strategy? I guess it just pisses off the purists who do the whole wallstreet thing or work the reality markets
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QUOTE (QED @ Monday, May 24th, 2010, 2:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Just got slow rolled by some random with aces, time to take an automatic weapon to the nearest crowded public space.


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#31 CrookedLink

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 03:11 PM

Here's my YTD stats playing 1/2nl at the local charity casino:Hours Played: 60Total Winnings: $1,330Win Rate: $22/hrTotal Sessions: 13This is my first year keeping detailed stats on my live sessions so I really have no idea what my lifetime win rate is in the game (Been playing live since turning 18 in September of 07)I think $22/hr is a pretty sustainable winrate at 1/2nl though. I do plan to put in a ton of hours this coming summer and the plan is to build up a respectable bankroll (~$4k) with aspirations to leave my minimum wage job and grind 200nl full time by this time next year. Honestly even a more moderate winrate of $12-$15/hr would still allow me to sustain my current style of living while at the same time doing something that I both love and gives me the personal freedom that this profession entails. I know I'm coming off as naive and immature for thinking that I've got it all figured out and most will probably tell me I'm destined for epic failure.However, being that I'm only 20 (21 in 6 months) and with virtually no living expenses since I still live at home, I feel like if I really want to take a shot at this poker thing, it's pretty much now or never. It's not like I'm quitting a high paying job either. If I do go broke, I'll just be back to where I am now. But I will have at least given it a shot. I also think the fact that I still live at home and have no major monthly expenses will help me play more comfortable at the tables and handle the downswings a bit better since I won't have to worry about how the hell I'm going to make rent if my flush draw doesn't hit.Thoughts/comments besides the obligatory tp/mm?
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#32 KingJames

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 03:13 PM

Save up like 6 months of living expenses + your bankroll
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#33 trystero

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 03:17 PM

the failure won't be epic; it's happened many times before, and will happen many times again.

#34 Provotrout

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 04:06 PM

View PostCrookedLink, on Sunday, March 7th, 2010, 6:11 PM, said:

However, being that I'm only 20 (21 in 6 months) and with virtually no living expenses since I still live at home, I feel like if I really want to take a shot at this poker thing, it's pretty much now or never. It's not like I'm quitting a high paying job either. If I do go broke, I'll just be back to where I am now. But I will have at least given it a shot. I also think the fact that I still live at home and have no major monthly expenses will help me play more comfortable at the tables and handle the downswings a bit better since I won't have to worry about how the hell I'm going to make rent if my flush draw doesn't hit.Thoughts/comments besides the obligatory tp/mm?
You're 20.. take a shot! You may end up doing well in higher $ games and living well within short time, you could grind for awhile and get tired of it, or you could fail. Anyway you look at it, don't be afraid to pursue something you want. You'll learn reasonably quickly how realistic the goal is and whether or not it's right for you. If you keep your discipline and devote yourself to learning the game/people you have a decent shot. Keep the stat updates coming & good luck-

#35 Pot Odds RAC

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 04:35 PM

View PostCrookedLink, on Sunday, March 7th, 2010, 6:11 PM, said:

Here's my YTD stats playing 1/2nl at the local charity casino:Hours Played: 60Total Winnings: $1,330Win Rate: $22/hrTotal Sessions: 13This is my first year keeping detailed stats on my live sessions so I really have no idea what my lifetime win rate is in the game (Been playing live since turning 18 in September of 07)I think $22/hr is a pretty sustainable winrate at 1/2nl though. I do plan to put in a ton of hours this coming summer and the plan is to build up a respectable bankroll (~$4k) with aspirations to leave my minimum wage job and grind 200nl full time by this time next year. Honestly even a more moderate winrate of $12-$15/hr would still allow me to sustain my current style of living while at the same time doing something that I both love and gives me the personal freedom that this profession entails. I know I'm coming off as naive and immature for thinking that I've got it all figured out and most will probably tell me I'm destined for epic failure.However, being that I'm only 20 (21 in 6 months) and with virtually no living expenses since I still live at home, I feel like if I really want to take a shot at this poker thing, it's pretty much now or never. It's not like I'm quitting a high paying job either. If I do go broke, I'll just be back to where I am now. But I will have at least given it a shot. I also think the fact that I still live at home and have no major monthly expenses will help me play more comfortable at the tables and handle the downswings a bit better since I won't have to worry about how the hell I'm going to make rent if my flush draw doesn't hit.Thoughts/comments besides the obligatory tp/mm?
I'll give a little "Tough Love" hereWe all want to run off and join the Circus. But reality often gets in the way. Poker doesn't have to be an "either/or" decision vs. a "real" job. This isn't a cross-road. No reason to treat it that way. Especially if you're going to make a life decision on 60 hours and $1,300. It sounds to me more like you're looking for a reason to quit the job at this point.So, sure, grind a bit. Build a bankroll. But don't think of it as some sort of a "shot". Right now it is just Poker. See where it takes you, but don't get your expectations beyond reality.

#36 mtdesmoines

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Posted 08 March 2010 - 06:59 AM

View PostCrookedLink, on Sunday, March 7th, 2010, 5:11 PM, said:

Here's my YTD stats playing 1/2nl at the local charity casino:Hours Played: 60Total Winnings: $1,330Win Rate: $22/hrTotal Sessions: 13This is my first year keeping detailed stats on my live sessions so I really have no idea what my lifetime win rate is in the game (Been playing live since turning 18 in September of 07)I think $22/hr is a pretty sustainable winrate at 1/2nl though. I do plan to put in a ton of hours this coming summer and the plan is to build up a respectable bankroll (~$4k) with aspirations to leave my minimum wage job and grind 200nl full time by this time next year. Honestly even a more moderate winrate of $12-$15/hr would still allow me to sustain my current style of living while at the same time doing something that I both love and gives me the personal freedom that this profession entails. I know I'm coming off as naive and immature for thinking that I've got it all figured out and most will probably tell me I'm destined for epic failure.However, being that I'm only 20 (21 in 6 months) and with virtually no living expenses since I still live at home, I feel like if I really want to take a shot at this poker thing, it's pretty much now or never. It's not like I'm quitting a high paying job either. If I do go broke, I'll just be back to where I am now. But I will have at least given it a shot. I also think the fact that I still live at home and have no major monthly expenses will help me play more comfortable at the tables and handle the downswings a bit better since I won't have to worry about how the hell I'm going to make rent if my flush draw doesn't hit.Thoughts/comments besides the obligatory tp/mm?
$22/hr at poker is like having a really good fast food restaurant job.
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#37 trystero

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Posted 08 March 2010 - 07:25 AM

$22/hour is so far above what you'd make serving Slurpees...

#38 Pot Odds RAC

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Posted 08 March 2010 - 07:48 AM

Mmmmmmmm......Slurpees.

#39 Ninja Ace

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Posted 08 March 2010 - 12:26 PM

View PostCrookedLink, on Sunday, March 7th, 2010, 3:11 PM, said:

Thoughts/comments besides the obligatory tp/mm?
In the past few months my sole income has been off of poker... live and online. "It's a hard way to make an easy living" rings ooooooh so very true.First off, if you're living off of it your bankroll has to be huuuuuge in comparison to the stakes you are playing. That 4k you plan on having as your bankroll... yeah... that better be just your bankroll. You will need equal amount of personal finances that are not for poker. You have to really treat it like you're a boss of a business and you give yourself paychecks out of your bankroll... monthly. I've had to drop down in stakes at the end of some months just because I didn't make enough to keep my BR high enough and still give myself the paycheck.Prepare for the biggest emotional ride of your life. Poker will do some sick things for long periods and short periods. It becomes very easy to grossly overestimate your abilities during run goods... and during huge downstretches (which will seem like a freaking eternity in live poker... possibly months) you will begin to question if you can even play properly or profitably anymore.My advice to handle this is as follows. First, you have to be able to play different formats of poker. I have to switch between HU SNG's, 6-max cash, FR cash, and SSing cash just to stay sane and keep my game from getting too warped by recent results. Also, playing different formats will increase your understanding of the game. Second... you cannot and will not succeed if you use drugs or alcohol. Like drinking? Like smokin the occasional reefer? That's fine... but you better plan at least 3 days off after you're done to recover from it. Thirdly, teach someone. Teaching someone will re-enforce your skills and keep you from derailing your game... and also give you someone to bitch to about bad down stretches. Fourth, if you can't take a horrible beat you can't do it. If you can't ship it all in on the flop against some nonsense hand who hits PERFECT runner runner (i.e. only a 2 card combo left in the deck for them to win the hand) and take that beat with a smile and a laugh, then you have no business trying to live off the game.
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QUOTE (QED @ Monday, May 24th, 2010, 2:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Just got slow rolled by some random with aces, time to take an automatic weapon to the nearest crowded public space.


QUOTE (BaseJester)
"Mixing it up" doesn't magically rationalize anything you do. It's like you walk up to a pencil sharpener, pencil in hand, and think, "Everyone expects me to sharpen this pencil, but I'm going to mix it up." Then you whip out your cock and sharpen that instead and yell, "Ha ha, bitches, you never saw that coming!" Well, no, they didn't. But you still have a dull pencil and bleeding dick.

#40 shynepo3

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Posted 08 March 2010 - 12:56 PM

View PostNinja Ace, on Monday, March 8th, 2010, 3:26 PM, said:

In the past few months my sole income has been off of poker... live and online. "It's a hard way to make an easy living" rings ooooooh so very true.First off, if you're living off of it your bankroll has to be huuuuuge in comparison to the stakes you are playing. That 4k you plan on having as your bankroll... yeah... that better be just your bankroll. You will need equal amount of personal finances that are not for poker. You have to really treat it like you're a boss of a business and you give yourself paychecks out of your bankroll... monthly. I've had to drop down in stakes at the end of some months just because I didn't make enough to keep my BR high enough and still give myself the paycheck.Prepare for the biggest emotional ride of your life. Poker will do some sick things for long periods and short periods. It becomes very easy to grossly overestimate your abilities during run goods... and during huge downstretches (which will seem like a freaking eternity in live poker... possibly months) you will begin to question if you can even play properly or profitably anymore.My advice to handle this is as follows. First, you have to be able to play different formats of poker. I have to switch between HU SNG's, 6-max cash, FR cash, and SSing cash just to stay sane and keep my game from getting too warped by recent results. Also, playing different formats will increase your understanding of the game. Second... you cannot and will not succeed if you use drugs or alcohol. Like drinking? Like smokin the occasional reefer? That's fine... but you better plan at least 3 days off after you're done to recover from it. Thirdly, teach someone. Teaching someone will re-enforce your skills and keep you from derailing your game... and also give you someone to bitch to about bad down stretches. Fourth, if you can't take a horrible beat you can't do it. If you can't ship it all in on the flop against some nonsense hand who hits PERFECT runner runner (i.e. only a 2 card combo left in the deck for them to win the hand) and take that beat with a smile and a laugh, then you have no business trying to live off the game.
well said..




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